Imperial Maths, how likely for me?

How likely am I to receive an offer for Imperial Maths?

I applied for the Maths with Mathematical Computation degree but Maths and Computer Science for my other 4 choices so my personal statement was equal parts for both.
9988888765 GCSEs, A*A*A predicted for Maths, Further Maths & Physics.
In MAT, I scored 26/100 in the first test (major tech issues) then 7/10 in the second test.
Got shortlisted for Oxford but ended up rejected.
Not eligible for contextual offer but I go to a low-performing state school, if that helps.

Very hard to say. I mean A levels are fine and GCSEs are fine (What are the 5, 6 and 7 in?). I know about the issues with the MAT because my friend also applied to Oxford for Maths and just had a complete breakdown after the whole tech issues. I'd say that your second MAT score is good but your first MAT score (if indeed it is taken into account) is a bit on the low side.

I reckon, not because of how weak your application is, that you will have to sit the STEP, and this goes for all Imperial Maths applicants, because they can't really use that secondary MAT paper as a true differentiator of merit.

Also, I don't know how strong your personal statement is so I am unable to make a decision on it as well. I'd say that you should be in with a decent chance but by no means is it easy to say.

I applied for Computing at Imperial so if you did the same, I could have maybe asked you about if you have mentioned any interesting projects in your personal statement because Imperial like that, but because you are a Maths applicant, I'm not too sure about what I can ask you.

Have you done any Maths comps? Did you do the UKMT stuff? I did and got merit certificate in Senior Kangaroo but chose not to mention it because I had LOADS of CS related stuff so I chose to stick with that. Apparently (Idk because I didn't read it), my teachers mentioned it in my reference so it might have come in clutch but who knows?