Ahhh.... Google fandom. People talk about how the stock has quadrupled in less than two years. People seem to forget that revenues have not grown accordingly. If Google was worth about $100/share at the IPO, what has changed that means it is worth $450/share now? The P/E ratio has risen to over 100, are earnings going to ever grow to fill that and are Google ever going to be able to pay a reasonable dividend on that price? Look at yahoo finance to see the kinds of companies with P/E ratios over 100. Will Google ever come up with another killer product that can generate the sort of revenue stream that justifies such a valuation?
People cite Microsoft as an example of how such explosive growth can be followed through. Microsoft is different, 96% of all consumer computers are preinstalled with a Microsoft operating system (at $50-60 a copy), then almost every business in the world has paid up a site license for Windows 2000/XP Pro (an annual subscription averaging about $10-20 per computer depending on the size of your enterprise) and a server for a Windows domain (extra licenses at about $3-5 per connection for a large enterprise). Then there's the copies of Microsoft Office (another $60 for those machines which have it preinstalled, a little cheaper for a volume license). Well over 90% of all processors in the world are running a Microsoft operating system, nearly all commercial enterprises in the world run Microsoft Office and an appreciable number of home users pay for it to be preinstalled. This is the kind of business that justifies the explosive growth seen from its foundation until today.
Microsoft were among the first to realise that software had commercial value. Google wrote a good search engine. Microsoft are pocketing about $100 for every new computer sold in the world. Most computer users will never give Google a penny. They may never come up with a 'killer app' that will generate a significant income stream.
Pay $450 for a share of Google if you think its worth it, however, be aware that they really are not comparable to Microsoft. The computer revolution is over, we have now merely moved into a regime of revision. Microsoft's principle competitor is previous versions of its own software. Cisco is merely making things slightly faster and better. The internet is growing, but most average joes have a superfast broadband connection now, we are unlikely to ever see that kind of growth again, as more people can afford the internet across the world the web will just get bigger, why should it get any better? Google is still hunting for a killer app. Ebay has captured the loot magazine contingent. Where can everything go from here?
The computer revolution was 25 years ago. The chances to make real money in computers themselves are all but over now. The only opportunities left in computers are their capability as tools.
N.B. I am not an investment professional. None of the above consitutes financial advice. Consult an FSA registered financial advisor before making any decisions which could affect your finances. The above article contains forward looking statements as defined by the FSA and US SEC. These statements are opinion, not fact and should not be used to predict the future. Past performance is in no way a guide to future performance.