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"fewer than 10% of students have three correct predicted grades"

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Loads of people in my school are predicted grades that they can't achieve. In fact, sometimes school just predict them higher grades than they want/need. I've been lucky so far and mainly got my predictions but I think it's a lot of pressure on people. Especially those who apply to medicine with no back up. If you don't get the grades, you don't get in so it's insane that school predict you grades you're unlikely to achieve! But then, equally, loads of people were under predicted grades and rightfully argued to up their predictions after they did better than expected in AS levels. My predictions are directly in line with what I got in my AS Levels so I hope I can achieve them!

(edited 12 years ago)

Reply 81

Joinedup

Original post by Rascacielos

Yes we do, but like I said, that doesn't mean the Guardian is justified in misrepresenting a statistic to prove something that isn't relevant to that particular statistic.

I can't see the actual ucas report http://www.ucasresearch.com/research/externally - maybe they found something fishy by comparing the errors from independent and state sector schools.

I might drop the researchers a line and see if they think the Graun's misrepresented their findings.

Reply 82

mahassociates

Original post by Dusty12

I find this very easy to believe. Do teachers honestly think that the lazy student who got CCCD through laziness and lack of effort will actually bother more at A2? :colonhash:

I wish we just had a system where we applied with actual grades.

That said, my GCSE predictions were exactly right, which is certainly impressive in my opinion!

On the other hand, that's the system we have in the U.S. and it leads to people just doing literally nothing senior year, because they know their grades, in most cases, won't count. Especially second semester. Which is just a waste of time...

Reply 83

toofaforu

i got AABB at AS and was predicted A*AAB with the A* in history. i tried to get my geography teacher to predict me an A* (got 100% in AS) and he refused... low and behold i get A*AAB...with an A* in geography and not history!

my GCSE predictions were also horribly wrong - hugely underpredicted

Reply 84

usamakhanlodhi

I think a combination of lazy teachers, favouratism to certain students, and students effectively bullying teachers has sadly made them in a lot of ways useless..for example at my school the maths department preicted student X with a low B an A* and student Y who worked hard and got a good A an A*..now if you do not know unit information or AS level grade it could lead you to belive the both are at the same level in the subject...People repeatedly not achieving thier predited grades and sometimes even missing out on offers mean unis take them with a pich of salt...slightly unfair that unis look at A* predictions from both X and Y with the same level of doubt..it also means unis then have to look at achieved grades and they then have to rely on GSCEs..which are a pretty unfair measure...although now AS level results are being cashed in it could make teachers more hesitant and unis can more easily spot overpredictions

Reply 85

Aspiringlawstudent

3/4 of mine were under-predictions.

Not exactly surprising that most are wrong, tbh.

I really dislike this whole post-qualification application thing though. I think without the pressure of not wanting to miss an offer people might slack.

Reply 86

Intriguing Alias

I feel mine are very reasonable. In maths and further maths I,averaged the top band of myeventually- predicted in AS so that's fine. In physics scrped it at AS but he could see it was one exam that let me down there - so I was predicted the higher grade of the boundary I was on, I think that's fair. :smile:

Reply 87

chinaberry

Yes, but they probably calculated on basis of discrepancy without taking into account sudden surprising leaps or retakes and props like that.

For what it's worth, mine aren't entirely reasonable, but as long as you apply wisely, you don't absolutely need A*s yet, so it's not worth making a big fuss. The difference between A and A* unfortunately seems to prove little apart from agility in jumping through hoops.

(edited 12 years ago)

Reply 88

nulli tertius

Original post by Joinedup

I think the new information is the level of combined inaccuracy. Accuracy rates of around 50% have been long quoted. I don't think people realised this was per A level and that the accuracy rate for the total prediction was so much lower at around 10%. I could not find this stat for that combined prediction.

However, if true that is the nail in the coffin of conditional offers. The cynic in me thinks that this figure must have been known/suspected for years but only published when change when a policy decision to change to post-A level admissions was in the offing.

I think this is the report to which the Guardian authors refer

http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/higher-education/docs/i/11-1043-investigating-accuracy-predicted-a-level-grades.pdf

There are also these:-

http://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/ca/digitalAssets/190552_The_accuracy_of_forecast_grades_for_OCR_A_levels.pdf

http://www.ucasresearch.com/documents/Predicted_Grades_2005.pdf

http://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/ca/digitalAssets/193694_Predicting_A_levels_using_AS_levels_-_Statistics_Report_No_29.pdf

Reply 89

hobnob

Original post by nulli tertius

The cynic in me thinks that this figure must have been known/suspected for years but only published when change when a policy decision to change to post-A level admissions was in the offing.

Well, the last time the topic was brought up it was the underpredictions which got paraded about, because UCAS was about to introduce Adjustment, so I'd say the cynic in you is probably right...

Reply 90

coffee?

Does anyone know what percent of A Level students in 2010 and 2011 got A*s at A Level?

Reply 91

Med_Geek

Original post by ooerr

My AS predicted grades were ridiculous; they based them on some point system using GCSE grades.

They predicted i'd get BBBC and i actually got AAAB... (my predicted C was in physics and I ended up with an A)

After my AS grades though, they updated my predicted A levels which ended up about right (predicted i'd get AAA, got A*AA) so yeah, their accuracy can vary.

We had the same system here!!! It's the most stupid system I've seen of predicting grades...people don't even take half of the subjects they've done at GCSE through to A levels!

The only reason I bullied the teachers into predicting me an A for chem was because I had 2As and a C on the three papers for AS, and the reason I got a C on that particular paper was because I was ill the day I sat the paper.

Reply 92

letsdothetimewarpagain

I deliberately didn't apply last year because I knew I was predicted under what I could achieve...

BCC in maths, hist and Eng lit got AAC with the c in maths thanks to a u in c4 :o:

I wish there were more options for applying after results without a year out

Reply 93

nulli tertius

Original post by coffee?

Does anyone know what percent of A Level students in 2010 and 2011 got A*s at A Level?

The 2011 figure was 8.3% across all subjects but that is like saying that the average man has 1.95 legs! It masks a very real discrepancy. The proportion ranges from 27.4% in further maths to 1.5% in media, film or television studies.

Reply 94

k9markiii

Predicted AAA got AAA.

Reply 95

Dusty12

Original post by !-Twisty-!

Although it's rare, it does happen.

I was that student :frown:

Original post by TheFatController

I got BBDU at AS and ended up walking away with AAB, so yes, I think teachers do believe that it is possible.

My initial predictions were BBC which I was able to raise to ABB - again, an example of where it's perhaps not such a bad thing to be able ask your teachers to increase your predicted grade. Yes I obviously tried my utmost to get the predictions increased, but my teachers never predicted me a grade that seemed unreasonable for me to get.

Well of course there will be people like you that genuinely have the motivation to get good grades at A2, but I'd imagine that most people who get Ds and Us probably don't increase them to As and Bs. Predicted grades should definitely be negotiable, but the unfounded begging that often happens shouldn't be so commonplace.

Reply 96

dancinginrainbows

The picture on that article is from my college!

Doesn't surprise me really, though it contradicts what some woman said when interviewed on the BBC earlier.