There seems to be a degree of naivety and arrogance amongst current and former Oxbridge students who believe that just because they thought they were good enough to apply and get in, the same must be true of everyone else who applied (and conversely that those who were rejected were not good enough). This simply is not true. The application system isn’t perfect (nor, indeed, does it claim to be). I can think of several examples in various Oxford and Cambridge colleges where applicants who shouldn’t have been let in ended up getting a place and many more examples of applicants who ought to have got in but didn’t. I don’t think anyone can deny this is the case.
In terms of choosing a college, I have to concur with Solid_Snake on this one. Again, there seems to be a certain degree of naivety amongst current Oxbridge students, many of whom believe that all colleges are equal as far as admissions and academic performance are concerned. This just isn’t the case. Why do you think Merton consistently achieve such good results in the Norrington table? The answer is that it has very little to do with the college’s ability to teach. The primary factor in determining a student’s performance in an exam is the student’s own academic ability independent of the teaching they receive. Bright students do well in exams and some colleges (notably the older richer ones) are better than others. Merton, an old and rich college, has a larger proportion of bright students than many of the other colleges and so the college performs well in the Norrington table – I would defy anyone to come up with an alternative explanation for why Merton does so well (and believe me, it has little to do with tutors putting students under greater pressure to get good results – this is a complete myth).
If Merton admits a large number of brighter students, it must follow that the college actively chooses these students in preference over other applicants. Since the majority of students admitted are accepted by their first choice college, this suggests that the population of students who apply to Merton are brighter than others. Many factors are involved in this process: advice from teachers, past applicants, discussion with admissions tutors, decisions based on application statistics etc. Ultimately, prospective students look at current students and try to work out what population they would fit into well. I know as you read this, many will think that this hypothesis is oversimplified (or perhaps you will think it is plainly incorrect) but I’d like to hear from anyone who has a better explanation for these findings.
The application pooling system isn’t perfect – how can it be with the sheer number of applicants involved? This means that if you are able to fit yourself into a population of applicants in which your chances of admission are optimised, it can improve your chances of getting in. Be honest – I’m sure you can think of examples where some students would not have got in had they applied to a different college. I can certainly think of a few.
On the other hand, I do accept that using application statistics (and private/public school ratios in particular) is not a very effective method for optimising college choice. These statistics provide no qualitative information on the successful applicants (e.g. their academic ability/proficiency in admissions tests and interviews/future success in undergraduate studies etc) and so using just these is unlikely to be of any use in determining the best college to choose. However, as long as the current admissions process is in place (i.e. it is run by the colleges rather than the faculty) if you want to improve your chances of getting into Oxbridge, you really do need to think beyond “oh, I thought this college was nice at the open day” when preparing the application.