I've put together a spreadsheet with admission stats
broken down by college based on
a Freedom of Information request. Originally posted about it in the
2012 applicants thread but I wanted a wider range of people to be able to see it.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Asg7Ze9sc7PfdERINU5BSjJXdVN1dEs5eVl2cFVyaWc&hl=en_GB#gid=0I would strongly advise people against making a college choice because they're trying to play the numbers. I imagine the differences in this spreadsheet are mostly to do with the different subjects offered by colleges, and how many good students apply to which colleges.
However there are some vaguely interesting facts in all those columns. For example Column D shows the percentage of applications to that college that were originally open applications. This is one indicator of popularity. Another similarly interesting column is Column O, which is the percentage of applicants to a college and got an Oxford offer, who got a place at that college. For Worcester it's only 50%, Magdalen is 55%, Brasenose 60% and Balliol 64%. Contrastingly for Harris Manchester and PPHs you see 100% meaning that no-one who applied there got an offer from another college.
As for the overall success rate of applicants in Column I (if you don't care too much which college you'll get into) it seems your best chances are gained by applying to a PPH (29% of applicants get in), New College (27%) or Magdalen (26%). On the other hand, only 14% got in! Of course the figures here and in Column J (and perhaps the whole spreadsheet) are
skewed by the relative quality of the people that decide to apply to a college, so aren't particularly conclusive!
Anyway, just some stats for you to play with. Once more: don't make decisions based on this. Apply where you want for any rational reason (or make an open application) because Oxford tries incredibly hard to make the admissions procedure fair, wherever you apply.