Coronavirus Megathread Part I

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Today's Europe figures.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

They indicate a rate of 56 deaths amongst 2495 infected, or 2.2%, but as presumably the actual infection rate is much higher, it suggests that at least for Europe, 3.6% is a considerable exaggeration.

I would be a little aprehensive about the European numbers at the moment. Just because if we use China as a model, then there are two bell-curves, one of infection and one of deaths.. the death curve is delayed behind the infection curve, as you would expect. So what we saw in China was a delayed effect on the fatality rate.. where the numbers dying started increasing at the rate that infections were increasing but about a week later. Equally even though infections are way down, the number of deaths is still taking its time to get there.

So I expect that even if italy plataus off over the next week (hopefully) we will actually see deaths still rise as we saw in China.

Korea seems to be an outlier given how amazingly low their mortality rate is.. Equally the USA has one of the highest mortality rates, but that seems more to do with luck than healthcare.

Reply 122

fallen_acorns

9 dead in 27 cases in washington.. bizarre. Either there are far far more that they don't know about, or they have had a lot of bad luck, or something else? Either way, its worrying.

Reply 123

Fullofsurprises

Original post by fallen_acorns

I would be a little aprehensive about the European numbers at the moment. Just because if we use China as a model, then there are two bell-curves, one of infection and one of deaths.. the death curve is delayed behind the infection curve, as you would expect. So what we saw in China was a delayed effect on the fatality rate.. where the numbers dying started increasing at the rate that infections were increasing but about a week later. Equally even though infections are way down, the number of deaths is still taking its time to get there.

So I expect that even if italy plataus off over the next week (hopefully) we will actually see deaths still rise as we saw in China.

Korea seems to be an outlier given how amazingly low their mortality rate is.. Equally the USA has one of the highest mortality rates, but that seems more to do with luck than healthcare.

We still don't really know how many people are infected in China - it's likely to be a much higher figure than the authorities say and they probably aren't saying what they actually know. Also China is plausibly likely to have a higher death rate to Europe, as they have very high urban pollution levels and high rates of smoking, both leading to respiratory disease and increasing the number of at-risk persons.

We haven't seen what will happen in the US yet. They have very low standards of healthcare in many parts of the country. Workers are often not allowed sick days or given sick pay and there are many localities with few medical personnel accessible to ordinary poorer people.

In this country, the main problems will be lack of beds in the NHS and poor governmental coordination, we are already seeing the latter.

Reply 124

OP

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Today's Europe figures.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

They indicate a rate of 56 deaths amongst 2495 infected, or 2.2%, but as presumably the actual infection rate is much higher, it suggests that at least for Europe, 3.6% is a considerable exaggeration.

There are two outcomes - death or recovery.

Around 200 have recovered. Over 2000 remain in treatment, many on artificial respiration, and some of them will die.

In other words, deaths lag behind infections, and the (deaths/infections) is an underestimate of the true death rate while some people are still in treatment.

Reply 125

OP

Original post by fallen_acorns

9 dead in 27 cases in washington.. bizarre. Either there are far far more that they don't know about, or they have had a lot of bad luck, or something else? Either way, its worrying.

America has only recently started testing people. They probably have over 1000 cases undetected.

Reply 126

OP

American breaches self-quarantine to attend business school event
https://www.necn.com/news/coronavirus/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2240615/

This is why China welded some apartment doors shut lmao.

Reply 127

Original post by AngeryPenguin

American breaches self-quarantine to attend business school event
https://www.necn.com/news/coronavirus/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2240615/

This is why China welded some apartment doors shut lmao.

too bad they eat bats and stuff, and are the cause of the whole thing lmao

Reply 128

username4986690

19

Original post by AngeryPenguin

American breaches self-quarantine to attend business school event
https://www.necn.com/news/coronavirus/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2240615/

This is why China welded some apartment doors shut lmao.

Is that why China is starving the Uygur and locking them in concentration camps?

Reply 129

username4986690

19

Original post by Ciel.

too bad they eat bats and stuff, and are the cause of the whole thing lmao

Have you seen the one of them eating live baby mice?

Reply 130

Sammylou40

Original post by DiddyDec

Have you seen the one of them eating live baby mice?

And the live monkeys brains

Reply 131

Original post by DiddyDec

Have you seen the one of them eating live baby mice?

yeah :// so gross.... and zero empathy for animals. like what is wrong with some people. they slaughter wolf cubs, too

Reply 132

fallen_acorns

Crazy how everything is reversed from what it was a few weeks ago. China today had just over 100 cases, whereas the rest of the world is now getting thousands a day. 75 people have been diagnosed with it when arriving back in China, causing people there to want to block people form entering...

The good news for us all though is that the WHO believes the decline in cases in China is real and accurate.. so that means that this is not only beatable but we know how. As long as other countries adopt similar methods to what has been successful in China, there doesn't seem to be any reason why this can't be beaten. But it requires a lot of countries to work together and take really radical steps.

Reply 133

OP

Original post by Ciel.

too bad they eat bats and stuff, and are the cause of the whole thing lmao

Well I hope that will comfort you when Western health services crumble and millions die, while evil authoritarian human rights abusing unhygienic China pulls away with only a short economic shock.

Deaths outside China now exceed those in the country
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html?context=storyline_menu#link-207ae39

Reply 134

Original post by AngeryPenguin

Well I hope that will comfort you when Western health services crumble and millions die, while evil authoritarian human rights abusing unhygienic China pulls away with only a short economic shock.

Deaths outside China now exceed those in the country
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html?context=storyline_menu#link-207ae39

it will, our planet is overpopulated anyway :smile:

but yeah how can you guys have zero empathy for animals? is it like an inborn trait? or is it something your parents teach you?

Reply 135

Other_Owl

22

I got an email from Utrecht University a few days ago about info on the coronavirus. The virus has been detected around the Utrecht area and everything will resume as normal.

Reply 136

OP

Original post by Ciel.

it will, our planet is overpopulated anyway :smile:

but yeah how can you guys have zero empathy for animals? is it like an inborn trait? or is it something your parents teach you?

lol okay, thanks for depopulating the West so that more Chinese can live.

I'm not Chinese btw.

And no, obviously it isn't an inborn trait, you ignorant racist. It's not even a trait at all, Chinese people love animals and own the most pets in the world.

Reply 137

username4986690

19

Original post by AngeryPenguin

while evil authoritarian human rights abusing unhygienic China pulls away with only a short economic shock.

At least you are being honest.

Reply 138

Original post by AngeryPenguin

lol okay, thanks for depopulating the West so that more Chinese can live.

I'm not Chinese btw.

And no, obviously it isn't an inborn trait, you ignorant racist. It's not even a trait at all, Chinese people love animals and own the most pets in the world.

"if fine if people from usa and europe die, more space for chinese people"
We LoVe aNimAlS eVen ThO We ToRtUrE tHem U RaCisT

Reply 139

OP