Coronavirus Megathread: UK goes into full lockdown

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AngeryPenguin
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Mod Edit: For advice, guidance and up-to-date information on Coronavirus/COVID-19, please check out the NHS, UK Government, and Mind (mental health) web-pages.



This is the thread for all coronavirus discussions, in order to avoid cluttering the forum with 100+ different coronavirus updates.

I will update the OP with news as it comes in, with the thread title updated to the latest big news.

Title from:
here


Map of confirmed cases
Lists by country

Terminology

The virus is officially called SARS-CoV-2 - literally SARS-2, reflecting its descent from SARS
The disease caused by the virus is called COVID-19 - COronaVIrusDisease-2019


Disease

According to the WHO report:
80% of cases are "mild" - i.e. do not require medical intervention to survive. This could range from even having no symptoms, to weeks of fever, to pneumonia - so long as they don't require oxygen and artificial respiration.
13.8% have "severe" - would probably die without oxygen treatment
6.1% are "critical" - respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure
https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month[8] compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days[9]

It is suspected that the symptoms are worse in those with larger "viral loads" - the more you are exposed to it initially, the more of a head-start the virus gets, and the less time your body has to find an antibody before the virus reaches your lungs and causes pneumonia.

Do young people need to worry?

Everyone sees the stats that younger people rarely die and assume its meant that younger people don't get seriously ill. This is a big misunderstanding. Non-elderly get seriously ill as well, it's just much more likely they can fight through it and survive with proper care.

Dallas is getting patients in critical condition who are in their 20's and 30's with no previous underlying conditions
Most patients in ICU in Netherlands under 50 years of age


How do I know if I have it?

According to the WHO ground team report:
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

The early and mild symptoms are indistinguishable to those of the flu, and if you experience them you are still likely to just have caught the regular flu. Only a lab test can diagnose mild cases, while more severe cases can be determined clinically (with scans of fluid in the lungs). Without these, the biggest hint that it is not the regular flu would be if your condition rapidly deteriorates.

Some countries such as China and South Korea are now testing anyone with flu symptoms; however, this is not yet rolled out in the UK, and notably some countries such as Norway and the US have refused to test even severe cases of flu symptoms of people returning from covid-19 epicentres (such as northern Italy and South Korea) until recently.

A short video on how to keep an eye out for less obvious symptoms of respiratory infection (such as blood oxygenation and pressure) by Dr John Campbell. Note that Dr Campbell is a retired doctor and educator, not a specialist in COVID-19, and can only be taken as general health advice rather than a gospel of coronavirus pandemic knowledge.


Treatment for the 14% (severe) cases:


Treatment for the 6% (critical) cases:
Here from 06:20 onwards

To prepare your immune system to fight the disease

None of this is specific to COVID-19
Be in good physical health - drink lots of water, eat lots of fruit and veg, etc.
Do not exhaust the body - this is how a number of young healthy people have died, catching the virus after half-marathons.
Take Vitamin D supplements - linked to lower chance of respiratory tract infections - and you are probably deficient in it during the winter
The usual other things (eat well, sleep well, etc.)


Suspected Effects

Chinese doctor discovers the virus in patient's cerebrospinal fluid
This corroborates previous suggestions (eg) that the virus could attack the nervous system


Long Term Side-Effects

Some recovered patients may have permanently damaged lungs, left gasping for air while walking briskly, Hong Kong study finds
A review of lung scans of nine infected patients at Princess Margaret found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage.
The long-term effect on recovered patients, such as whether they would develop pulmonary fibrosis, a condition where lung tissue hardened and the organ could not function properly, had yet to be ascertained.

The current treatment for serious cases of COVID-19 is experimental, and often involves cocktails of relatively nasty medicines used to treat viral diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis C, and Ebola, which often have long-term side effects.

There is a risk of permanent damage, even if you do not die, whether from the viral disease or its treatment. For instance, large numbers of SARS (very closely related virus) survivors suffered chronic fatigue, permanent lung damage, and other health complications:

The Spanish flu was said to have damaged color vision (because it inflamed the optical nerve). Survivors of Spanish flu were also later much more likely to suffer from depression than people who were never infected.


The Death Rate

This is the probability of a random person dying if they contract COVID-19.

This number varies depending on the demographics of the infected, and the quality of care they receive. Germany and South Korea both so far have very low death rates (under 1%), while China had ~3% and Italy has ~7%. This most likely reflects differences in clusters (South Korea's cases clustered in a cult of young women), and how widespread testing is (some countries now only test hospitalized patients due to test and/or staff shortages).

There are multiple plausible estimates we can make:

The Completed Case Fatality Rate is the proportion of completed cases which were deaths - a case is completed either at death or recovery. This number is likely to be an over-estimate, especially towards the start of an epidemic. This is currently around 5%, a sharp decline from 50% towards the start of the epidemic.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the ratio of deaths to infections. It is likely to be an under-estimate especially in the early stages of an epidemic, although for this viral disease in particular it is actually probably an over-estimate due to many milder cases going undiagnosed. The CFR is estimated to be around 3.5% - about 1/3rd as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918, and around 10x worse than the seasonal flu (which is not the same as the common cold). The CFR in South Korea is around 0.5%, and in Italy is around 1% - this likely represents how many mild cases have been caught (South Korea has done more extensive testing and caught many more milder cases) and not the quality of health care in either country.

The death rate tends towards the hospitalization rate (10-20%) when health services get overrun, as serious cases end up not getting the intervention they require. This is why the death rate in Wuhan was so high (over 5%) at its peak.

The more governments can slow the infection's spread, the more health services can cope, and the more time there is for vaccines to be researched, tested and mass produced. Unfortunately, vaccines have not been produced for similar viruses (such as SARS and MERS) because those viruses were less infectious and easier to contain, so never became pandemics.

The current estimated fatality rates are listed in a table on page 5. Given the demographics it seems that around 1% of TSR's userbase will require hospitalization.



Infection

There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. See, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.

There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2[10]

Transmission

This can be transmitted the same way as the flu - touch (it survives on surfaces up to days), droplets (through coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing).

To minimize risk of infection:
Wash hands after using (or use disposable paper towels instead) PIN pads, elevator buttons, public keyboards/mice, etc.
Avoid touching your face with your hands
Shower regularly
Avoid sick people
Avoid using public toilets (virus is present in feaces and can be aerosolized when flushed)
Disinfect your smartphone regularly (Water resistant phones can be cleaned with soap and water carefully. Alcohol should not be used on newer phones, as it may damage the protective covering and allow viruses to stick to the surface easier)
Wear a mask/respirator in crowded areas, especially where there are the sick and elderly (such as GP waiting rooms). Note that some governments (such as the UK and US) have been advising the general public not to wear masks as they have insufficient stockpiles for emergency services - but most other governments are advising citizens to wear masks (and some will issue fines for not wearing masks, in worst hit regions).

The virus is likely to have first been transmitted to humans from another species (or potentially a chain of species).

Human to animal transmission has been confirmed as of 4 March 2020


British universities with cases

Outdated and thus NOT an exhaustive list

Bristol: 1 case
Bournemouth: 1 case
King's College London: at least 1 case
Oxford: 5 cases
SOAS London: 1 case
Sussex: 2 cases
York: 1 case
Queen's Belfast: 1 "presumptive" positive

It's not widely publicized, mostly local news. The change.org link might seem dodgy but that is a verified reply by King's College London, so they admit they have 1 case.

Would appreciate it if students here keep us updated with emails they receive from their universities regarding "coronavirus"/COVID-19 cases.


How serious is this?


The Infection Rate

The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28[1] . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3[2]. What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads signficantly faster than the seasonal flu.

SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms[5] - both pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. This makes it much more difficult to control.



Government Measures

SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.
These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that ~15% of cases require medical intervention.
This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail.

UK Strategy

The original UK strategy was to allow the virus to spread, primarily among young people, in order to build a 'herd immunity' to protect the elderly. Singapore, the WHO, former WHO expert, Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, infectious diseases expert at the University of Hong Kong criticised this strategy.
New research by Imperial College London, who advise the government, suggests that this strategy would result in 250,000 deaths even assuming health services were not overwhelmed; they now suggest lockdowns are absolutely essential despite cataclysmic economic ramifications.
Following this new research, the government is reported to have changed course, and will most likely put the UK into lockdown, as most other similarly affected countries have done.

The editor of the British Medical Journal described the UK epidemic as "entirely preventable"


Regions in lockdown







































































































Country Region Population Began Ended Severity
China Hubei 57 million 2020/01/23 2020/03/13 in some
Italy Entire country 60 million 2020/03/09 -
Spain Entire country 47 million 2020/03/13 -
France Entire country 67 million 2020/03/16 -
Philippines Manila 12 million 2020/03/16 -
Belgium Entire country 11 million 2020/03/18 -
Malaysia Entire country 32 million 2020/03/18 -
Kazakhstan Entire country 18 million 2020/03/18 -
Israel Entire country 9 million 2020/03/18 -
TOTAL Europe 185 million - - -



"If the population does not understand that they must stay home, the situation will become catastrophic." - Antonio Pesenti, coordinator of the crisis unit of the Lombardy Region
Teaching





Timeline

Week 21

Mon 23 March

UK has gone into lockdown.

No gatherings of more than 2 people.

All non-essential shops closed.

Only reasons to go outside:
- Groceries
- Exercise (only once per day)
- Work (only if absolutely necessary)





Week 19

Sun 15 March


Sat 14 March


Fri 13 March


Thurs 12 March


Weds 11 March


Tues 10 March
Spoiler:
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Arrest warrant issued for man who smeared saliva over Brussels metro handrails

UK Health Minister infected
The number of countries with national politicians infected now includes: Iran, Italy, France, and the UK


Mon 9 March



Week 18

Sun 8 March
Spoiler:
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"We are now forced to create intensive therapies in the corridor, in the operating rooms, in the recovery rooms
"We gutted entire hospital wards to make room for the seriously ill. One of the best healthcare in the world, the Lombard one, is one step away from collapse
"The picture is of such gravity as to require an increase in resuscitation places up to ten times the current availability
"If the population does not understand that they must stay home, the situation will become catastrophic."
- Antonio Pesenti, coordinator of the crisis unit of the Lombardy Region


Ambulance chiefs consider facial hair ban
The draft memo, issued to a group of managers on Saturday, said the service's "ability to respond to potential Covid-19 patients has been adversely affected by the low availability of crews who are successfully [tested for respiratory masks], which is partly driven by crew staff not being clean shaven".

Italian PM announces lockdown of provinces totalling 16 million people (25% of Italy's population) in a 2am press conference
The lockdown was not meant to be announced beforehand - the draft was leaked to the press. However, due to the leak, roads and trains out of the region were crammed with those wishing to escape the lockdown.


Sat 7 March


Fri 6 March
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American nurses say they lack protective gear
Some have complained about being pulled out of quarantine early to treat patients due to staff shortages.
National Nurses United, a union that represents about 150,000 nurses across the USA, announced the results of an online survey.
Of the 6,500 nurses who participated:
* 29% said their hospital had a plan in place to isolate potential coronavirus patients
* 44% had received guidance from their employers about how to handle the virus
* 63% had access to N95 face masks
* 25% had access to the more protective powered air purifying respirator (PAPR)

Supermarket executives "baffled" by Health Minister's claim that the government had been working with them to discuss the delivery of food and supplies to self-isolated people

Iran releases tens of thousands of prisoners in attempt to reduce spread (cramped prison conditions making viruses spread easier in prisons)

Largest union of American nurses raises alarm over nurses being denied tests for the coronavirus despite becoming ill after treating infected patients

Infected Japanese man disobeys self-quarantine order and visits local bars, telling his family "I'm going out to infect people with coronavirus"

France to requisition all face mask stocks and production

Hundreds of new cases in France, Germany, Italy, etc. 40 new cases in the UK.


Thurs 5 March


Weds 4 March
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Italy shuts down all schools for at least 2 weeks, against WHO advise

Human-to-animal transmission confirmed (pet dog infected)

Chinese researchers discover 2 main strains of the coronavirus

COVID-19 may invade patients’ nervous systems just like SARS and MERS
According to the complaints of a survivor, the medical graduate student (24 years old) from Wuhan University, she must stay awake and breathe consciously and actively during the intensive care. She said that if she fell asleep, she might die because she had lost her natural breath.

Norway: Many people ignoring quarantine

Italy to close schools and universities as death toll passes 100
Coronavirus epidemic in UK is likely, says chief medical officer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...te-latest-news

WHO advises people to use cashless transactions, as banknotes may be spreading the coronavirus
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/wh...111019361.html
This comes weeks after regions of China started disinfecting and even burning cash

Europe ‘panicking’ over India’s pharmaceutical export curbs
https://gulfnews.com/business/corona...oup-1.70147325
Exports of 26 active pharmaceutical ingredients, which provide 26% of European medicine production, restricted due to the coronavirus

Germany bans export of medical masks, gloves and suits
https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL8N2AX3D9
Nice of them to protect other countries from these 'useless' masks

UK bans face mask adverts because official UK guidelines state masks are useless except for medical staff
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51729647


Tues 3 March
Spoiler:
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Cases in the UK rise from 39 to 51

Water pressure down in Tehran, Iran due to people washing their hands
BBC Persian suggested a state cover-up, claiming more than 2,000 people had already died, and on Twitter pictures of mass graves being dug were published
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...avirus-spreads

Infected American breached self-quarantine to attend business school event
https://www.necn.com/news/coronaviru...shire/2240615/

2 of first 9 coronavirus deaths identified in Seattle, USA - almost a week after deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/w...s-updates.html
America has ignored testing and instead relied on deaths to track community spreading

Netherlands closes its 3rd infected ICU (and 4th infected medical facility) due to not testing patients with severe pneumonia
https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/03...20200303075600

France stoped testing “not serious cases” as suspected cases are “too many” since February 29
http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/cor...20-8269836.php

Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world's population, expert warns
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...ay-2020-03-02/

NYC ER doctor: The lack of US testing is a "National Scandal"
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/0...quawk-box.html

USA: City of San Antonio sues the federal government over inadequate coronavirus quarantine protocol
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/c...bfd45fe8523fc0

Korean man diagnosed with the coronavirus leaves quarantine to stand in line for a face mask, gives interview to a news crew, says he has the virus, and gets hauled away to clinic.
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200303001300053


Mon 2 March
Spoiler:
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Firefighters and police who were sent to a coronavirus-hit nursing home to transport patients have been quarantined after displaying flu-like symptoms
Spoiler:
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https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...on-coronavirus
https://nypost.com/2020/03/02/nearly...r-coronavirus/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/u...sing-home.html

Love how China, South Korea and Italy transport patients using medics equipped with full hazmat suits, while America sends medically untrained firefighters without even masks (some went back to get a mask only after seeing nursing home staff wear them), and only quarantines them a week later.



Italy installs a red zone: nobody can enter or leave, public places closed, events forbidden
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_...52023e91.shtml
however, lots of people are entering and leaving through country roads
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/w...uarantine.html

First confirmed case in New York City
https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/first-...-in-manhattan/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/n...confirmed.html
Because of strict limitations on whom the CDC deemed eligible for testing, only 8 people in the City were tested in February, all found to be negative. That changed over the weekend when the state began administering its own tests. This case wouldn't have been caught if testing hadn't been expanded.

Quarantined patient was “mistakenly” released by the CDC in San Antonio, Texas after testing negative twice. 3rd test came back positive after having left the facility
https://m.mysanantonio.com/news/loca...n-15097374.php



Week 17

Sun 1 March
Spoiler:
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Louvre shuts down due to staff union action
https://apnews.com/29cc5b26f3620a2bbd6c8444f4f12e42
Workers have asked for masks to be distributed but so far have been given only an alcohol-based solution to disinfect their hands. Union representative questioned why the Louvre isn’t covered by the new ban on large indoor gatherings.

Spain refuses to call off Las Fallas festival in epicentre of outbreak; packed streets; 2 million tourists expected over 2 weeks, without the authorities having issued any type of warnings, advice or protocol to prevent the expansion of the coronavirus.
https://www.elmundo.es/comunidad-val...f3b8b4666.html

Italy reports 566 new cases and 5 new deaths, bringing total to 1694 cases and 34 dead
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1...595540485?s=21

Hospitals "close to collapse" in Lombardy, Italy
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cron...-202002a.shtml

Milan Doctor: "clinical picture does not suggest that the infections are recent. The virus was already circulating before the end of January"
“Those who have tried to instill tranquility, and I understand them, have not considered the potential of this virus. In 42 years of profession I have never seen an influenza capable of upsetting the activity of the infectious disease wards. The situation is frankly emergency from the point of view of the health organization."
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_...51361796.shtml

Newly Completed Genomic study strongly suggests that there has been cryptic (undetected) transmission in Washington State (where 1st known case has died) for the past 6 weeks
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...318503426.html

12 more patients in England test positive, taking UK total to 35
There are now 2 confirmed cases with no travel history - one in Essex confirmed today and one in Surrey confirmed yesterday
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51697991

American Airlines flight to Milan cancelled as crew refused to board
https://www.news1.news/2020/03/coron...-new-york.html

First deaths in US, Thailand and Australia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

US Surgeon General urges Americans not to buy masks, to reserve them for emergency workers, as federal reserves (30 million N95 masks) are insufficient for expected demand (300 million).
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...ace-masks.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...rus-2020-01-30
- but I want to point out that their claim that "the virus is not spreading in the general community" is false: most new cases cannot be traced back to other known cases, which indicates precisely community spreading.

Fri 28 Feb
Spoiler:
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New York City mayor DeBlasio has repeatedly requested permission from federal authorities to conduct tests locally developed, rather than wait weeks for the CDC to send out functioning test kits. He claims nobody in federal govt has responded to >3 weeks of requests.
https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/s...838862854?s=21

Switzerland bans events with more than 1,000 people
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/coronavi...eople/45585378

Record losses totalling $5 trillion in financial markets as coronavirus fears wipe out the last 2 years of gains
Japanese island declares state of emergency
Coronavirus sweeps across Iranian government including health minister and vice president
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-live-updates/

Germany quarantines 1,000 as coronavirus cases push past 50 (including an employee at a university clinic)
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...h-past-50.html

Thurs 27 Feb
Spoiler:
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U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...leblower-says/

France braces for ‘epidemic’ as cases double in a day to 38
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/euro...-uk-record-new

Trump says US risk 'very low' as Australian PM warns pandemic is 'upon us'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...emergency-plan

New infections in South Korea (505) now outnumber those in China (433).
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ed-china-which

Mike Pence is being put in charge of the coronavirus containment effort. When Mike Pence was governor of Indiana, his decisions led to an outbreak of HIV infections.

US Health Secretary says coronavirus vaccine may not be affordable to everyone
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9362226.html


Weds 26 Feb
Spoiler:
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Netherlands states that there is no reason to check on those who were in contact with German Covid-19 patient who visited, because he didn't yet symptoms yet during his visit
https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/duitse-co...ijf-in-limburg
This seems to ignore the fact that asymptomatic transmission has been known to be possible for at least a month



Week 16

Sat 22 Feb
Passengers test positive despite release from Japan quarantine
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6366308

Thurs 20 Feb
Expert criticises "completely inadequate" quarantine measures taken by Japan on ship, as many Japanese health officials begin to get infected
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6360872


Week 15


Sat 15 Feb
Japan declares state of local epidemics
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/videon...00321-nnn-soci

Tues 11 Feb
S. Korea advises against travel to Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, and others
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6357894


Week 13

Weds 29 Jan

Coronavirus spreading anti-China racism
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6333652


Week 8


Sun 5 Jan
WHO states that there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission
https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-janua...ause-china/en/

China says Wuhan pneumonia not Sars, but virus remains unidentified; outbreak widens to 59 hospitalised
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...pitalised-over
Total of 21 people who had been to Wuhan in the past 14 days admitted to Hong Kong hospitals, 7 of whom have since been discharged
Singapore reports 1st suspected case

Sat 4 Jan
44 infected, 11 in serious condition
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...k-remains-calm

Tues 31 Dec
WHO alerted
https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-janua...ause-china/en/

Hong Kong takes emergency measures as mystery ‘pneumonia’ infects dozens in China’s Wuhan city
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/poli...0-hospitalised

China dispatches experts to investigate SARS-like viral pneumonia in Wuhan that has infected 27
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/2...for-sars-links


Week 7

Fri 27 Dec
3 adult patients presenting with severe pneumonia admitted to a hospital in Wuhan
Paper

Thurs 26 Dec
Virus sample (collected on 24th Dec) identified as a SARS-like coronavirus

Weds 25 Dec
Report of medical staff in two hospitals in Wuhan suspected to be infected




Week 3

Sun 1 Dec
First known patient begins to experience symptoms





Medical Data

Most likely of use only to data scientists and trained doctors
Italian Radiology Society database of clinical cases and CT scans of patients
Last edited by AngeryPenguin; 1 week ago
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
This is the thread for all coronavirus discussions, in order to avoid cluttering the forum with 100+ different coronavirus updates.

I will update the OP with news as it comes in.

Why should you be concerned? Isn't it less bad than the flu?
Spoiler:
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1. The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28^[1] . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3^[2] . What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads signficantly faster than the seasonal flu.

2. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is at least 2-3%^[3] . This is 20-30 times higher than the CFR of the season flu, which is around .1%^[4] .

3. SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms^[5] . This makes it much more difficult to control.

4. Roughly 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention^[6] . This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu^[7].

5. Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month^[8] compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days^[9] .

6. There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2^[10] whereas people regularly get annual flu shots.

7. There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. *See*, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.


Now, consider the multiplicative effect that all of these attributes have for the virus. Compared to the seasonal flu, SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.

These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that 20% of cases require medical intervention.

This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail. Far worse than the seasonal flu.


Where did this come from?
Spoiler:
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Although initially thought to have originated from a wild food market in Wuhan - the cause of many racist "memes" about Chinese - researchers discovered that most of the first few infections were unrelated.

It is speculated that the infection could have been caused by a researcher being bitten by a bat. Some more possible but less likely explanations include the virus being a bioweapon spread by the Americans in order to punish China and Iran.


Where has it spread?
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The virus has been contained in China, however outside China it is spreading as a pandemic.


What are governments doing about it?
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China, where the first cases were noticed, very quickly put cities into lockdown. The local government of Wuhan/Hubei was incompetent and allowed the virus to spread, and the central government of China stepped in to restore order and crack down on the virus. New infections are now decreasing, and China is returning to normalcy.

Much of the rest of the world restricted travel to and from China, but this did not stop the virus from spreading to them.

The US sent out malfunctioning test kits, and consequently has only tested 450 people so far (as of 26 Feb 2020). Hawaii has even gone so far as to request permission to test people using Japanese test kits, as they cannot afford to wait until mid-March to receive results back.

The UK has tested 9000 people and found 9 infections, mostly in Brighton. They have set up drive-thru test facilities in order to reduce the exposure of medical workers. Home tests are being piloted by the NHS for the same reason.
[/url]


Events in week 13
Monday 27 Feb
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New infections in South Korea (505) now outnumber those in China (433).
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AngeryPenguin
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Reserving comment for overflow of character space.
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fallen_acorns
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Things are looking pretty good in China. Outside of Hubei, cases are right down, and it does seem like it can be starved by lack of contact. My area of China has seemingly beaten it. We haven't had a new case in a good few days, and before that we were down to 1-2 per day. It seems to have completly stalled compared to the growth that happeend late-jan early feb.

To do that though, extreme measures were taken. In my neighbhorhood people were not allowed out. Each area (a few roads) was controlled by a warden who managed who could come in and out. Only one family member was allowed to leave per day, and they monitored this using a token system that was handed out early on, at the worst point you were only allowed out once every 2 days. Food shops were mandated to stay open, meaning there was never a panic about shortages. If people returned to the area, they were forcably quarentined inside their home for 14 days, or 2 days if they came from a non-risk area.. their doors would be sealed up. And when someone got it, whole buildings were sealed up. Gates were put up to restrict movement, and where gates couldn't be closed, temporary barriers and walls put up.

That seems to have worked though.

The worry for me is that I now see it spreading to countries where that simply isn't possible. If that is the extreme measures you have to take to let this thing burn out on its own.. whats going to happen in countries where they can't do that? I'm not really worried about Korea, they will and are very capable of doing just what China has done. But I am much more worried about developing and poorer nations, where they simply don't have the ability to organise and lock things down in the way China did.. I am also worried about western nations that lack the dicipline to deal with this in the way Chinese people have. I really can't imagine people in many parts of Europe being as controlled and compliant as many Chinese people have.

Anyway, good websites for people to use are:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

And for news, go for CNN - they have a live tab from their homepage that has been the most responsive and frequently updated in my experiance. They have had constant live coverage from the start.. whereas the BBC are great when they do cover it live, but mostly they haven't. They are on-off depending on whats happening that day, with whether they have a live feed for it.

Here is todays: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-ne...hnk/index.html

If your looking at this tomorow/later, just click back to their homepage, and then click on the new live-virus link.
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AngeryPenguin
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France braces for ‘epidemic’ as cases double in a day to 38
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/euro...-uk-record-new

So far there are around 600 diagnosed cases in Europe, with the majority in Italy. A week ago there weren't even 50 cases in total.
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Ragman75
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
France braces for ‘epidemic’ as cases double in a day to 38
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/euro...-uk-record-new

So far there are around 600 diagnosed cases in Europe, with the majority in Italy. A week ago there weren't even 50 cases in total.
are you finnaly going to admit that this whole problem was made exponentially worse by the Chinese government
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by Ragman75)
are you finnaly going to admit that this whole problem was made exponentially worse by the Chinese government
Worse? China moved heaven and earth to destroy the virus. Can you imagine any other country locking down cities of 60 million people? Welding them into their own apartments? Flying drones around to detect people not wearing masks? Wuhan itself is almost the size of London, and was under the most extreme quarantine measures any city has ever been in modern times. China sacrificed a great deal of its economic growth in order to protect its citizens and citizens of the world from this terrifying virus - and it was largely successful, as new infections have now slowed to a crawl in China.

China's new concern is actually the threat of importing the virus from other countries that are too weak to implement such extreme containment measures, such as South Korea and Japan.
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Ragman75
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Worse? China moved heaven and earth to destroy the virus. Can you imagine any other country locking down cities of 60 million people? Wuhan itself is almost the size of London, and was under the most extreme quarantine measures any city has ever been in modern times. China sacrificed a great deal of its economic growth in order to protect its citizens and citizens of the world from this terrifying virus - and it was largely successful, as new infections have now slowed to a crawl in China.

China's new concern is actually the threat of importing the virus from other countries that are too weak to implement such extreme containment measures, such as South Korea and Japan.
Wow cant believed you finally replied btw im gonna make a post debunking all your propagandan and informing people how dire of a situation china has left the world with.

Things china did to cause this
- arrested all the journalist who first reported on this
- waited like a month to report the outbreak
- consistently and are still lying about the number of people infected and died
- waited even longer to let the WHO in to the country to help with the situation and to inform the rest of the world.
- hold a huge village/town open seafood banquet a couple miles from the epicenter of the outbreak
- arrest journalist that have continued to actually do real reporting on the issue on the basis of "miss information" but allows rumours like dogs and cats are the cause the Chinese bat flu to spread like wild fire, which has resulted in thousands of animals being brutally beaten to death
- literally jail people inside their houses
- tell doctors when the epidemic first started that they shouldn't tell anyone and to just send patients they think might be infected home without informing them

And honestly I could go on, so tell me how can the ccp do all this and then you can say "oh they have handled this well". At every point they have sacrificed lives to preserve their economy, at every point they have been opaque they have played the problem down to preserve trust in china. The only silver lining to this is that hopefully it will tank the Chinese economy for long enough that the people take this as their mandate from heaven to oust the CCP and actually have a democracy.
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Ragman75)
Wow cant believed you finally replied btw im gonna make a post debunking all your propagandan and informing people how dire of a situation china has left the world with.

Things china did to cause this
- arrested all the journalist who first reported on this
- waited like a month to report the outbreak
- consistently and are still lying about the number of people infected and died
- waited even longer to let the WHO in to the country to help with the situation and to inform the rest of the world.
- hold a huge village/town open seafood banquet a couple miles from the epicenter of the outbreak
- arrest journalist that have continued to actually do real reporting on the issue on the basis of "miss information" but allows rumours like dogs and cats are the cause the Chinese bat flu to spread like wild fire, which has resulted in thousands of animals being brutally beaten to death
- literally jail people inside their houses
- tell doctors when the epidemic first started that they shouldn't tell anyone and to just send patients they think might be infected home without informing them

And honestly I could go on, so tell me how can the ccp do all this and then you can say "oh they have handled this well". At every point they have sacrificed lives to preserve their economy, at every point they have been opaque they have played the problem down to preserve trust in china. The only silver lining to this is that hopefully it will tank the Chinese economy for long enough that the people take this as their mandate from heaven to oust the CCP and actually have a democracy.
your confusing two stages of the outbreak. During the initial phase, december to mid january - yes China can rightfully be critisised for its actions. You can put them in context, and say that most nations try and downplay things like these, but in the end their efforts made it harder to deal with.

But then you get to the second phase, late janunary and onwards. This is where China flicked on, accepted reality, and since has acted perfectly. This is the stage where they put their citizens before the economy, locked down the nation, and as someone who lives in China, and has family here.. took huge steps to combat this. People on the ground in China are rightfully critical of the initial response.. but they are also respectful of how ruthless but effective China has been in dealing with this. You have no idea of the measures and sacrifices made by the goverment, local goverments and the people here. They have given up everything including their freedom to combat this, and at the moment it seems to have worked.

Your comment is just purely ill-informed when it comes to the outbreak as a whole, and isn't at all a reflection of what has been going on for the last month or more. I have been in China, listening to the news both local and international, and it was clear when China gave up the pretence that it was all fine and ok. I was in shanghai airport, and the the shift was sudden and people felt it. In a day they changed their tune and the after that the whole goverment response and public attitude shifted. Before that - your post is pretty spot on, but it only still stands if you don't count what has happened since.

For your list of bad things - you can make a list of good measures. The lockdowns have worked, the travel restrictions have worked, the new hospitals (eventually) worked, increased production worked, neighborhood quarentines, like in my area, worked, they have been far more cooperative internationally than at any point in their history, including sars.. and have actually managed to work closely with Japan and korea, despite regional difficulties. The numbers coming out of China now are not lies, they have been open about diagnosed cases and clear about the criteria they are using to count cases.. when they noticed a backlog of cases that were not fully diagnosed, they changed their counting method to better reflect the problem. I can tell you that deaths are being correctly reported because my family here are watching the local online coverage that plays every local event, illness and death, and they do reflect the national total.

Your post is about as accurate as someone saying that China acted 100% perfectly at every turn.
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Ragman75
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
your confusing two stages of the outbreak. During the initial phase, december to mid january - yes China can rightfully be critisised for its actions. You can put them in context, and say that most nations try and downplay things like these, but in the end their efforts made it harder to deal with.
Usually i would say you are jsut wrong but here you are just being a immoral person you are playing defense for a totalitarian authoritarian government. They didnt down play what was happening, they actively suppressed information, arrested journalist, told doctors to give patients bad advice and lied about the amount of people infected.
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
But then you get to the second phase, late janunary and onwards. This is where China flicked on, accepted reality, and since has acted perfectly. This is the stage where they put their citizens before the economy, locked down the nation, and as someone who lives in China, and has family here.. took huge steps to combat this. People on the ground in China are rightfully critical of the initial response.. but they are also respectful of how ruthless but effective China has been in dealing with this. You have no idea of the measures and sacrifices made by the goverment, local goverments and the people here. They have given up everything including their freedom to combat this, and at the moment it seems to have worked.
There is no 2nd phase to this, the virus didn't change. China did not flick on, the virus simply spread too far for them to not take drastic measures. Also saying "China flicked on, accepted reality, and since has acted perfectly. " is like saying oh my doctor wasn't paying attention during the first 20 mins of my brain surgery but after that they did great. It doenst matter if you act well late controlling viruses is time sensitive if you mess it up in he beginning you have handled the whole situation poorly. But even that isnt true throughout this whole ordeal they have still been arresting journalist, giving out obviously low numbers and perpetuating this idea that enacting a travel ban on Chinese tourist is racist. Also during this "2nd stage" 5 million people left wuhan before the quarantine, aand during this stage you had two new epicentres for the virus in cities that weren't quarantined.

Overall China didnt have to do this if they would have contained this in the beginning how 10s if not hundreds of thousands would still be alive. It also hasnt worked, then numbers coming out of china come from the government which has both incentive and a history of lying. They continually run out of test kits, or they do things like not reporting corona virus as pneumonia if they patient has no connection to wuhan.
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Your comment is just purely ill-informed when it comes to the outbreak as a whole, and isn't at all a reflection of what has been going on for the last month or more. I have been in China, listening to the news both local and international, and it was clear when China gave up the pretence that it was all fine and ok. I was in shanghai airport, and the the shift was sudden and people felt it. In a day they changed their tune and the after that the whole goverment response and public attitude shifted. Before that - your post is pretty spot on, but it only still stands if you don't count what has happened since.
No you are missinformed, you cant trust the your local news its all Ccp propaganda and lies. Think about it if they lied in the begining and no one is calling them out for lying, why would they not just continue. The reality is they have never stoped lying or down playing the situation, its just that the real situation is 10x worse than we think it is. I mean for god sake its been like how many years now and we still dont know how many Chinease died from sars, all we have is numbers from hk.
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
For your list of bad things - you can make a list of good measures. The lockdowns have worked, the travel restrictions have worked, the new hospitals (eventually) worked, increased production worked, neighborhood quarentines, like in my area, worked, they have been far more cooperative internationally than at any point in their history, including sars.. and have actually managed to work closely with Japan and korea, despite regional difficulties. The numbers coming out of China now are not lies, they have been open about diagnosed cases and clear about the criteria they are using to count cases.. when they noticed a backlog of cases that were not fully diagnosed, they changed their counting method to better reflect the problem. I can tell you that deaths are being correctly reported because my family here are watching the local online coverage that plays every local event, illness and death, and they do reflect the national total.

Your post is about as accurate as someone saying that China acted 100% perfectly at every turn.
the lockdowns dont work, ive seen countless videos of people screaming at night because they are locked into thier house. They are also the absolute last resort but are bing used as the 1st option.

As i said the travel restrictions didnt work either, 5 million people left Wuhan before that quarantine, and after it was quarantined two more province developed new epicentres of people who had the disease that had not come into contact with anyone from Hubei province which suggest the too little to late.

Hospitals also dont work at all the chinease medical aparatus is treched almost to breaking point, also ive seen the inside of them they aren't super effecitve, and now that we know you can get reinfected and it can be worse i dread to think of how many people recovered nd got reinfected and died.

The numbers are lies, those numbers are not verified by any 3rd party at all are you seriously going to sit there and tell me the CCP are trust worthy.

My post is accurate China has literally acted incredibly slow and dishonest throughout this entire process to protect its economy as much as possible, thye only started really combating this disease when they just couldnt hide it anymore, and even when they did they dragged their feet. On top of that the whole reason they got into this mess was because of top down authoritarian immoral structure of the CCP.
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Ragman75)
Usually i would say you are jsut wrong but here you are just being a immoral person you are playing defense for a totalitarian authoritarian government. They didnt down play what was happening, they actively suppressed information, arrested journalist, told doctors to give patients bad advice and lied about the amount of people infected.

There is no 2nd phase to this, the virus didn't change. China did not flick on, the virus simply spread too far for them to not take drastic measures. Also saying "China flicked on, accepted reality, and since has acted perfectly. " is like saying oh my doctor wasn't paying attention during the first 20 mins of my brain surgery but after that they did great. It doenst matter if you act well late controlling viruses is time sensitive if you mess it up in he beginning you have handled the whole situation poorly. But even that isnt true throughout this whole ordeal they have still been arresting journalist, giving out obviously low numbers and perpetuating this idea that enacting a travel ban on Chinese tourist is racist. Also during this "2nd stage" 5 million people left wuhan before the quarantine, aand during this stage you had two new epicentres for the virus in cities that weren't quarantined.

Overall China didnt have to do this if they would have contained this in the beginning how 10s if not hundreds of thousands would still be alive. It also hasnt worked, then numbers coming out of china come from the government which has both incentive and a history of lying. They continually run out of test kits, or they do things like not reporting corona virus as pneumonia if they patient has no connection to wuhan.

No you are missinformed, you cant trust the your local news its all Ccp propaganda and lies. Think about it if they lied in the begining and no one is calling them out for lying, why would they not just continue. The reality is they have never stoped lying or down playing the situation, its just that the real situation is 10x worse than we think it is. I mean for god sake its been like how many years now and we still dont know how many Chinease died from sars, all we have is numbers from hk.

the lockdowns dont work, ive seen countless videos of people screaming at night because they are locked into thier house. They are also the absolute last resort but are bing used as the 1st option.

As i said the travel restrictions didnt work either, 5 million people left Wuhan before that quarantine, and after it was quarantined two more province developed new epicentres of people who had the disease that had not come into contact with anyone from Hubei province which suggest the too little to late.

Hospitals also dont work at all the chinease medical aparatus is treched almost to breaking point, also ive seen the inside of them they aren't super effecitve, and now that we know you can get reinfected and it can be worse i dread to think of how many people recovered nd got reinfected and died.

The numbers are lies, those numbers are not verified by any 3rd party at all are you seriously going to sit there and tell me the CCP are trust worthy.

My post is accurate China has literally acted incredibly slow and dishonest throughout this entire process to protect its economy as much as possible, thye only started really combating this disease when they just couldnt hide it anymore, and even when they did they dragged their feet. On top of that the whole reason they got into this mess was because of top down authoritarian immoral structure of the CCP.
Your post is getting really conspiratorial.

Do you know how I know the numbers they are putting out are pretty accurate? Because my family can see what's going on, and actually compare it to the news stories. through the unoficial channels (social media etc) video footage and reports of every person that's removed from their homes, or goes into hospital is put out there.. any suspected outbreak is reported, and word travels quickly about any case in the area. There is no way to hide these cases from the people who live there. You can cover things up from international audiences, but you can't cover things up from the people who live in the same building as them. We get stories and videos of very case that happens in our city, and roughly they do line up with gov. figures. The trends also line up, early feburary we were seeing loads of suspected and real cases every day. then less and less, and now (thankfully) for the past 5 days, none. This lines up well with official figues which show the same trend.

That's in my city though, could they be lying in other places? Yes, but we have family in 5 major cities who have all had a similar experiance. Its very unlikely that anywhere outside of Wuhan they have been purposely wrong about the numbers. And even inside Wuhan, there is little reason for them to downplay it, now that its under control.

Your point about the initial stages is half-wrong also. Your right, that they should have acted more honestly and better at first, but your wrong that this would have stopped the outbreak. The likelyhood is, especially looking at whats happening abroad right now. Even if they had been 100% transparent, the outbreak still wouldn't have been contained, because goverments rarely take measures until they are forced to. Most of your points relate to China not being honest.. but none of it stops the spread. The only thing they could have done to actually stop this crisis would have been to lock Wuhan down much more suddenly, and a while earlier. Goverments will never do this though until they are forced to, and when they were forced to - they did. Its such a drastic measure.

It seems like you don't believe any of the numbers at all. Do you think that its slowed down in China? Or do you believe that its still going up? Are there 80,000 casese or hundreds of thousands that we don't know about?

I don't think you have a balanced view of this at all. Your absorbing anti-chinese conspiracy theories, and mixing them with real negative news.. whilst dismissing any positive news at all as Chinese propaganda. That makes you just as biased and unreliable as the Chinese propaganda itself. Its very possible to have a balanced view of this, by accepting Chinas mistakes, especially early on, but also praising the actions that have now almost conquered the virus.
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DiddyDec
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The Chinese propaganda megathread :lol:

If China had contained the virus then it wouldn't have spread. China failed to contain it.

Is there cause for concern? No. Those worst effected are the old, the smokers and the sick. It is not surprising that Chinese health workers have died considering how run down they are. They are struggling to cope with the work load and it is well recognised that being overworked and stressed increases your chances of illness.

Do I trust China? Not at all. They went Chernobyl on the whole thing and they may well still be doing so. Based on the reports we are getting from Chinese medical staff calling for international aid it stands to reason that China isn't doing all that they can because asking for help could be seen as a weakness to them.

American bioweapon? Classic propaganda to shift blame :congrats:
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Ciel.
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Worse? China moved heaven and earth to destroy the virus. Can you imagine any other country locking down cities of 60 million people? Wuhan itself is almost the size of London, and was under the most extreme quarantine measures any city has ever been in modern times. China sacrificed a great deal of its economic growth in order to protect its citizens and citizens of the world from this terrifying virus - and it was largely successful, as new infections have now slowed to a crawl in China.

China's new concern is actually the threat of importing the virus from other countries that are too weak to implement such extreme containment measures, such as South Korea and Japan.
japan and south korea are actually far superior to china in terms of medicine etc. so i wouldn't worry
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YaliaV
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A megathread? Yaaay
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NJA
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Government is now saying when not if the virus spreads. Millions may have to learn to survive without going to cafes for their coffees.
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
The Chinese propaganda megathread :lol:

If China had contained the virus then it wouldn't have spread. China failed to contain it.

Is there cause for concern? No. Those worst effected are the old, the smokers and the sick. It is not surprising that Chinese health workers have died considering how run down they are. They are struggling to cope with the work load and it is well recognised that being overworked and stressed increases your chances of illness.

Do I trust China? Not at all. They went Chernobyl on the whole thing and they may well still be doing so. Based on the reports we are getting from Chinese medical staff calling for international aid it stands to reason that China isn't doing all that they can because asking for help could be seen as a weakness to them.

American bioweapon? Classic propaganda to shift blame :congrats:
If they had contained virus, obviously it wouldn't spread. But how do you contain it? In hindsight its easy to say, if they had locked down wuhan when there were only 100 cases, and treated it as serriously as a global pandemic that early on, then yes.. it would have been solved. But really, no nation does that.. no nation locks down a city the size of london, until they are absolutely forced to do so. Even italy isn't managing to stop it spreading at the moment, nor iran or korea.. they are all struggling because none of them want to take the massively disproportionate and harsh actions required, before they are forced to do so. If Italy had locked down the region, banned all fights/trains/travel, after 10 cases.. it wouldn't have spread to 10+ european countries as it now has.. but back then they weren't treating it as they are now.

As for Chinese health workers, its really tough on them, but there isn't a lot else that China can do for them right now. They imported thousand of medical workers from other parts of China to Wuhan, and brought in the military medical workers, but its still not enough. They can't import many more because other areas of China still need their own medical workers, especially to combat their own outbreaks, and there isn't a magical surplus of nurses/doctors in China. They have reached out though, and accepted plenty of help in the form of medical supplies from other nations, including cooperating with Japan, which is highly unusual.

As for the bioweapon stuff, that's not the official Chinese line, or one being spread by any of the media or social media there. In fact the more common conspiracy theory in China is that it came from the Chiense virus-research lab in Wuhan, not from america.

Where they are critical of america, is that they felt in early februrary america were encouraging other nations to react with more severity, as a means of pushing back in the trade war. I personally don't think this is true, I think its just america reacting in the sensationalist way they always do.. but that's been the main critisim from China.
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Ciel.)
japan and south korea are actually far superior to china in terms of medicine etc. so i wouldn't worry
I think Penguin is wrong here.. I get the point he's making, its common thought in China that other nations won't be able to match the diciplined and severe measures that China have taken. Not medically, but socially. Locking everything down, relying on everyone to stay indoors for months including their kids, restricting all social meetings even between family, only going out once every 2 days. They don't believe other nations will be able to do this, and as such won't be able to stop the spread.

But to pick Japan and Korea as your examples is just silly.. they are both highly diciplined and socially structured nations, that come from the same line of cultural development as China, and are more developed and more capable of implimenting these measures. There is no reason to think that they won't be able to do what China did.

The real nations to worry about are the developing nations like Iran, who has no ability to manage it like China did, and the western nations who do have the wealth/infrastructure to handle it, but maybe not the culture that pust the nation above the individual.
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Ciel.
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
I think Penguin is wrong here.. I get the point he's making, its common thought in China that other nations won't be able to match the diciplined and severe measures that China have taken. Not medically, but socially. Locking everything down, relying on everyone to stay indoors for months including their kids, restricting all social meetings even between family, only going out once every 2 days. They don't believe other nations will be able to do this, and as such won't be able to stop the spread.

But to pick Japan and Korea as your examples is just silly.. they are both highly diciplined and socially structured nations, that come from the same line of cultural development as China, and are more developed and more capable of implimenting these measures. There is no reason to think that they won't be able to do what China did.

The real nations to worry about are the developing nations like Iran, who has no ability to manage it like China did, and the western nations who do have the wealth/infrastructure to handle it, but maybe not the culture that pust the nation above the individual.
tbh the uk isn't much better, people don't take corona virus seriously in the uk, lol. it's all about memes and ****.
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Em.-.
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The best way to limit virus spread is to put in place heavy international travel restrictions. But this isn’t going to happen here, at least not soon enough to prevent a pandemic imo, due to the economy being favoured over people’s health.
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
If they had contained virus, obviously it wouldn't spread. But how do you contain it? In hindsight its easy to say, if they had locked down wuhan when there were only 100 cases, and treated it as serriously as a global pandemic that early on, then yes.. it would have been solved. But really, no nation does that.. no nation locks down a city the size of london, until they are absolutely forced to do so. Even italy isn't managing to stop it spreading at the moment, nor iran or korea.. they are all struggling because none of them want to take the massively disproportionate and harsh actions required, before they are forced to do so. If Italy had locked down the region, banned all fights/trains/travel, after 10 cases.. it wouldn't have spread to 10+ european countries as it now has.. but back then they weren't treating it as they are now.

As for Chinese health workers, its really tough on them, but there isn't a lot else that China can do for them right now. They imported thousand of medical workers from other parts of China to Wuhan, and brought in the military medical workers, but its still not enough. They can't import many more because other areas of China still need their own medical workers, especially to combat their own outbreaks, and there isn't a magical surplus of nurses/doctors in China. They have reached out though, and accepted plenty of help in the form of medical supplies from other nations, including cooperating with Japan, which is highly unusual.

As for the bioweapon stuff, that's not the official Chinese line, or one being spread by any of the media or social media there. In fact the more common conspiracy theory in China is that it came from the Chiense virus-research lab in Wuhan, not from america.

Where they are critical of america, is that they felt in early februrary america were encouraging other nations to react with more severity, as a means of pushing back in the trade war. I personally don't think this is true, I think its just america reacting in the sensationalist way they always do.. but that's been the main critisim from China.
This thread claims that China has contained the virus, this is an outright lie. They weren't treating the issue because their first response was to suppress descent. Most developed nation look at what their medics are saying and act on it. China on the other hand see descent that must be crushed so they can save face.

China has a military force of over 2 million active personnel and a further half million in reserve. There is a lot they could be doing with the PLA and their extensive humanitarian force.

The bio-weapon stuff comes from our favourite Chinese propaganda machine.
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Do you think non-essential uni exams should be cancelled?

Yes, they should be cancelled altogether (91)
52.6%
No, they should still go ahead (34)
19.65%
They should be cancelled for everyone but final year (48)
27.75%

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