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Coronavirus Megathread Part I
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Original post by Napp
Out of interest, but how do you intend to pay your bills, buy food, keep the car fueled and most of all eat with the country in lockdown?
Lockdown in practise means avoiding leisure travel. not going to work if it is possible to work online, going out only to buy food and medicines and generally being careful to keep distance from other people wherever possible.
Original post by Napp
Might.
China is already ramping their back up again... Besides, given its entirely chinas fault and all that.
Remind me what your qualification in this is?
China is already ramping their back up again... Besides, given its entirely chinas fault and all that.
Remind me what your qualification in this is?
Christ I just had a really horrible idea, You could sell short online courses in the Covid virus to people that want to throw their weight about online
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Lockdown in practise means avoiding leisure travel. not going to work if it is possible to work online, going out only to buy food and medicines and generally being careful to keep distance from other people wherever possible.
For some people it is possible to work online however there are huge swathes of people working in the service, retail, unskilled labour, etc who need to be at a physical location in order to work. Very few of them will be able to survive on the measly £94 a week.
Original post by StriderHort
Christ I just had a really horrible idea, You could sell short online courses in the Covid virus to people that want to throw their weight about online
$$$$
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Lockdown in practise means avoiding leisure travel. not going to work if it is possible to work online, going out only to buy food and medicines and generally being careful to keep distance from other people wherever possible.
I wouldnt really call that any form of a lock down, imo. When people mention it they seem to be more grinding at banning travel, and going down the China (to a lesser degree Italy) route. Which for the threat posed, whilst not to be sniffed at of course, doesnt seem to merit such an ott response. I mean if this was SARS, Marburg, Lasser etc. then theyd have a point but given the shutting down of boarders and countries is going to (is) causing absolute financial mayhem that is disproportionate to the threat i cant really get behind such measures unless there is a marked change.
Original post by Napp
$$$$
I wouldnt really call that any form of a lock down, imo. When people mention it they seem to be more grinding at banning travel, and going down the China (to a lesser degree Italy) route. Which for the threat posed, whilst not to be sniffed at of course, doesnt seem to merit such an ott response. I mean if this was SARS, Marburg, Lasser etc. then theyd have a point but given the shutting down of boarders and countries is going to (is) causing absolute financial mayhem that is disproportionate to the threat i cant really get behind such measures unless there is a marked change.
I wouldnt really call that any form of a lock down, imo. When people mention it they seem to be more grinding at banning travel, and going down the China (to a lesser degree Italy) route. Which for the threat posed, whilst not to be sniffed at of course, doesnt seem to merit such an ott response. I mean if this was SARS, Marburg, Lasser etc. then theyd have a point but given the shutting down of boarders and countries is going to (is) causing absolute financial mayhem that is disproportionate to the threat i cant really get behind such measures unless there is a marked change.
All due respect Napp, I think you're underestimating the scale of the threat. The hospitalisation rate means that medical services are going to essentially collapse. That means anyone else getting ill - a broken leg - a heart attack - is going to be untreated. There will be severe systemic dislocation. These things are not wild rumours, they are happening right now in Italy, where social distancing was not practised until too late.
Original post by NJA
Get through it without overreacting or under reacting personally I would reserve judgement until we get to the end and then we can compare are who was right and who wasn't until then it's all fear, prejudice and speculation
Reserve judgment on what to do or how bad it is/going to get?
Because while I agree that overreacting can cause problems, not reacting at all before it's run its course is silly. We have lots of mathematical models on how pandemics spread. Thanks to those, and experience we have in pandemic planning, we have a pretty strong understanding of how this is going to spread and why.
https://microbialmenagerie.com/social-distancing-1918-influenza-coronavirus-covid-19/
Here's a good look at St. Louis vs Philadelphia based on their own experiences and reactions to the Spanish Flu.
We know that this current pandemic is qualitatively different to things like SARS or Ebola - The most dangerous part of it is that the majority of people will be just fine with it. It makes it much more likely to spread, unlike Ebola, where you will start bleeding from your eyes. Should we be terrified? No. But we should be aware of how this will play out and be supportive of measures taken to curb it. While you will probably be fine, there are potentially millions in the 'At risk' category who won't be.
Original post by ThatOldGuy
unlike Ebola, where you will start bleeding from your eyes.
See that bit was what deffo got my attention on Ebola. Didn't want any of that.
Big OOF, I don’t understand how Ireland has been out in full lockdown and the U.K. hasn’t?
Quote from the Italian doctor on Newsweek. Compare and contrast with Boris's announcement just now that nothing is closing and basically people should carry on as normal.
"I'm a doctor in a major hospital in Western Europe. Watching you Americans (and you, Brits) in these still-early days of the coronavirus pandemic is like watching a familiar horror movie, where the protagonists, yet again, split into pairs or decide to take a tour of a dark basement.
The real-life versions of this behavior are pretending this is just a flu; keeping schools open; following through with your holiday travel plans, and going into the office daily. This is what we did in Italy. We were so complacent that even when people with coronavirus symptoms started turning up, we wrote each off as a nasty case of the flu. We kept the economy going, pointed fingers at China and urged tourists to keep traveling. And the majority of us told ourselves and each other: this isn't so bad. We're young, we're fit, we'll be fine even if we catch it.
Fast-forward two months, and we are drowning. Statistically speaking—judging by the curve in China—we are not even at the peak yet, but our fatality rate is at over 6 percent, double the known global average.
Put aside statistics. Here is how it looks in practice. Most of my childhood friends are now doctors working in north Italy. In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.
The army is trying to bring some of them to other regions with helicopters but it's not enough: the flow is just too much, too many people are getting sick at the same time.
We are still awaiting the peak of the epidemic in Europe: probably early April for Italy, mid-April for Germany and Switzerland, somewhere around that time for the UK. In the U.S., the infection has only just begun."
"I'm a doctor in a major hospital in Western Europe. Watching you Americans (and you, Brits) in these still-early days of the coronavirus pandemic is like watching a familiar horror movie, where the protagonists, yet again, split into pairs or decide to take a tour of a dark basement.
The real-life versions of this behavior are pretending this is just a flu; keeping schools open; following through with your holiday travel plans, and going into the office daily. This is what we did in Italy. We were so complacent that even when people with coronavirus symptoms started turning up, we wrote each off as a nasty case of the flu. We kept the economy going, pointed fingers at China and urged tourists to keep traveling. And the majority of us told ourselves and each other: this isn't so bad. We're young, we're fit, we'll be fine even if we catch it.
Fast-forward two months, and we are drowning. Statistically speaking—judging by the curve in China—we are not even at the peak yet, but our fatality rate is at over 6 percent, double the known global average.
Put aside statistics. Here is how it looks in practice. Most of my childhood friends are now doctors working in north Italy. In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.
The army is trying to bring some of them to other regions with helicopters but it's not enough: the flow is just too much, too many people are getting sick at the same time.
We are still awaiting the peak of the epidemic in Europe: probably early April for Italy, mid-April for Germany and Switzerland, somewhere around that time for the UK. In the U.S., the infection has only just begun."
Original post by Napp
Might.
China is already ramping their back up again... Besides, given its entirely chinas fault and all that.
Remind me what your qualification in this is?
China is already ramping their back up again... Besides, given its entirely chinas fault and all that.
Remind me what your qualification in this is?
Widen your eyes. Clearly you are fooled by the news, the result of coronavirus is (less serious) respiratory or pneumonia, as I’ve mentioned in my previous post on this thread. How did you think Italy ended up like this weren’t there an absolute sense of complacency at a ‘British’ stage. We need actions now, surely you don’t want to decide which of your mum or your dad lives when the time comes, or do you want to argue that the NHS is 200 times better than in italy?
Also your raciest attitude is irrelevant, China is sending volunteers to Italy and I presume you have done more than this in helping the situation?
(edited 4 years ago)
Bs no need for a lockdown I can't work from home in my job
Original post by Greywolftwo
Big OOF, I don’t understand how Ireland has been out in full lockdown and the U.K. hasn’t?
Probably because they know there will be a big inflow of potential coronavirus cases once all the punters get back from Cheltenham.
Original post by Rock Fan
Bs no need for a lockdown I can't work from home in my job
And a lot of people can't work from the afterlife. So there's that.
Original post by Rock Fan
Bs no need for a lockdown I can't work from home in my job
Is that no need for a lockdown because you can't work your job from home?
Original post by ThatOldGuy
And a lot of people can't work from the afterlife. So there's that.
You believe the media too much
Original post by Pharyngotympanic
Is that no need for a lockdown because you can't work your job from home?
There's 450 cases out of 62 million get a grip the media are only trying to cause mass hysteria
Original post by Rock Fan
You believe the media too much
There's 450 cases out of 62 million get a grip the media are only trying to cause mass hysteria
There's 450 cases out of 62 million get a grip the media are only trying to cause mass hysteria
... I don't think you quite apprehend the situation. It isn't the numbers of people now. It's the infection rate, the fact that most of the people won't be badly affected. We're Italy two and a half weeks ago.
Italy now can't handle the number of people who need oxygen. Hospitals are overwhelmed. 40 year olds are in critical condition. That's not hysteria. That's just a fact.
I believe the World Health Organization. I believe Doctors. I believe the mathematical models that show the spread of this.
Original post by Rock Fan
You believe the media too much
There's 450 cases out of 62 million get a grip the media are only trying to cause mass hysteria
There's 450 cases out of 62 million get a grip the media are only trying to cause mass hysteria
Actually our media have been underplaying the severity of the threat. The WHO has stated that:
- up to 65% of the population are likely to get it
- based on current figures, between 8 and 10% of those will require hospitalisation
- and around 3.5% - 5% will die.
So for the UK, that is:
- 39m infected
- 3.2m requiring hospitalisation involving ventilators and ICU beds (the NHS currently has no spare ICU beds and a national shortage of ventilators, face masks and oxygen equipment as well as beds)
- between 1m and 2m premature deaths, not all of them in old people
Based on the above, medical services are going to rapidly collapse. Many healthcare staff will also become infected and put out of action. Non-Coronavirus medical problems will go untreated. Utility workers and a host of other workers will also require special protection which is not currently available. The main factories that make such equipment are in China. It is likely that there will be many severe industrial, transport and utility dislocations as well as the collapse of medical services.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Actually our media have been underplaying the severity of the threat. The WHO has stated that:
- up to 65% of the population are likely to get it
- based on current figures, between 8 and 10% of those will require hospitalisation
- and around 3.5% - 5% will die.
So for the UK, that is:
- 39m infected
- 3.2m requiring hospitalisation involving ventilators and ICU beds (the NHS currently has no spare ICU beds and a national shortage of ventilators, face masks and oxygen equipment as well as beds)
- between 1m and 2m premature deaths, not all of them in old people
Based on the above, medical services are going to rapidly collapse. Many healthcare staff will also become infected and put out of action. Non-Coronavirus medical problems will go untreated. Utility workers and a host of other workers will also require special protection which is not currently available. The main factories that make such equipment are in China. It is likely that there will be many severe industrial, transport and utility dislocations as well as the collapse of medical services.
- up to 65% of the population are likely to get it
- based on current figures, between 8 and 10% of those will require hospitalisation
- and around 3.5% - 5% will die.
So for the UK, that is:
- 39m infected
- 3.2m requiring hospitalisation involving ventilators and ICU beds (the NHS currently has no spare ICU beds and a national shortage of ventilators, face masks and oxygen equipment as well as beds)
- between 1m and 2m premature deaths, not all of them in old people
Based on the above, medical services are going to rapidly collapse. Many healthcare staff will also become infected and put out of action. Non-Coronavirus medical problems will go untreated. Utility workers and a host of other workers will also require special protection which is not currently available. The main factories that make such equipment are in China. It is likely that there will be many severe industrial, transport and utility dislocations as well as the collapse of medical services.
How do you know if they are right though
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