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Edexcel S4 - 28th June 2017

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Good luck to all the AFM legends tomorrow.
Reply 21
Original post by HarunH1
Thanks once again, you've helped me alot! Just one more which I really cant get my head around, http://pmt.physicsandmathstutor.com/download/Maths/A-level/S4/Papers-Edexcel/June%202013%20QP%20-%20S4%20Edexcel.pdf part f. Thank you!!!

edit:5f


So you're given that it takes 20 mins to collect a 20ml sample so this is always the length of time the scientist takes as they always take a 20ml sample. Then you are given that it takes 15 mins to collect a 10 ml sample. The statistician will either take 1 or 2 10ml samples so the expected time for the statistician will be 15*Probability of taking 1 sample + 30*Probability of taking 2 samples. Now she only needs to take 1 sample if there are 2 or more or 0 organisms present as she then immediately forms her conclusion. However if 1 organism is present she will take a 2nd sample but no more after this. This gives her expected time as 15 * P(X is not 1) + 30 * P(X=1). This will give you something in terms of lambda. You can then just set this as greater than 20 and manipulate the inequality to get the result.
Original post by Myopia
So you're given that it takes 20 mins to collect a 20ml sample so this is always the length of time the scientist takes as they always take a 20ml sample. Then you are given that it takes 15 mins to collect a 10 ml sample. The statistician will either take 1 or 2 10ml samples so the expected time for the statistician will be 15*Probability of taking 1 sample + 30*Probability of taking 2 samples. Now she only needs to take 1 sample if there are 2 or more or 0 organisms present as she then immediately forms her conclusion. However if 1 organism is present she will take a 2nd sample but no more after this. This gives her expected time as 15 * P(X is not 1) + 30 * P(X=1). This will give you something in terms of lambda. You can then just set this as greater than 20 and manipulate the inequality to get the result.


Thank you so much, I feel so much more confident about tomorrow. Best of luck, but I'm sure you won't need it lol.
Reply 23
Original post by HarunH1
Thank you so much, I feel so much more confident about tomorrow. Best of luck, but I'm sure you won't need it lol.


No worries. Hope everything goes well for you! :smile:
What is y'alls firm unis?
Good luck today all and grats if it's the last one :smile:
That was a fairly standard paper tbh

I think I got 8.8, 30.2 for confidence interval, (X1(X1-1) + X2)/n^2 for unbiased estimator of p^2, a and b are 0.5 can't really remember anything else haha

I think I got a critical region of X>10
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Lucas.Kaiser
That was a fairly standard paper tbh

I think I got 8.8, 30.2 for confidence interval, (X1(X1-1) + X2)/n^2 for unbiased estimator of p^2, a and b are 0.5 can't really remember anything else haha

I think I got a critical region of X>10


I got X1(X1-1)/n(n-1) for the unbiased estimator. others are the same.

Some other answers I remember.
1. both not significant
2.C.R. X>=11 Type I 0.0426
9 not in the C.R.
Type II 0.8159
3. Reject
C.I for the variance (4.22, 56.3)
4. in pairs
differences normally distributed
5. (8.79, 30.2)
6. a=b=0.5
bias is Var(p) (2a^.......

Anyone agrees??????
Reply 28
Original post by Andy Lau
I got X1(X1-1)/n(n-1) for the unbiased estimator. others are the same.

Some other answers I remember.
1. both not significant
2.C.R. X>=11 Type I 0.0426
9 not in the C.R.
Type II 0.8159
3. Reject
C.I for the variance (4.22, 56.3)
4. in pairs
differences normally distributed
5. (8.79, 30.2)
6. a=b=0.5
bias is Var(p) (2a^.......

Anyone agrees??????


I put same sample size for the pairs one you think that'd be fine?
What was question 3 again?
Original post by petermp
I put same sample size for the pairs one you think that'd be fine?
What was question 3 again?


I'm not pretty sure about that, but in order to apply t-pair test, you normally have
1. Differences are normally distributed
2. Two sets of data are in pairs
3. Sample sizes are small
4. Population variance unknown

Cant remember Q3 tbh
Original post by petermp
I put same sample size for the pairs one you think that'd be fine?
What was question 3 again?


Do you agree with all others
Original post by Andy Lau
I got X1(X1-1)/n(n-1) for the unbiased estimator. others are the same.

Some other answers I remember.
1. both not significant
2.C.R. X>=11 Type I 0.0426
9 not in the C.R.
Type II 0.8159
3. Reject
C.I for the variance (4.22, 56.3)
4. in pairs
differences normally distributed
5. (8.79, 30.2)
6. a=b=0.5
bias is Var(p) (2a^.......

Anyone agrees??????


Oh I never thought of doing X1(X1 - 1)/n(n-1) do you think I'd still get the mark because my expected value is still p^2?

But yeah I agree with all of the others
Reply 32
Original post by Andy Lau
Do you agree with all others


Yeah it looks like i got the same as you for everything except the last part for the unbiased estimator I didn't find that question.

For the variances of Jam did you use simultaneous equations and find 19.5 as the difference of the means with t-test 28 degrees of freedom
last two parts of last q seemed tricky compared to normal

when you found E[p-hat^2] did you find it in terms of a and b or did you sub the values a=b=1/2 ?

the algebra seemed too unfriendly w/ the a's and b's.
Original post by petermp
Yeah it looks like i got the same as you for everything except the last part for the unbiased estimator I didn't find that question.

For the variances of Jam did you use simultaneous equations and find 19.5 as the difference of the means with t-test 28 degrees of freedom


Don't think simul equations are needed.
Simply find the variance for J and then do the pooled variance.....etc.
Original post by Lucas.Kaiser
Oh I never thought of doing X1(X1 - 1)/n(n-1) do you think I'd still get the mark because my expected value is still p^2?

But yeah I agree with all of the others


Not sure, it says : by considering X1(X1-1)....so I don't think X2 needs to be involved.
Original post by joelstrouts
last two parts of last q seemed tricky compared to normal

when you found E[p-hat^2] did you find it in terms of a and b or did you sub the values a=b=1/2 ?

the algebra seemed too unfriendly w/ the a's and b's.


ph here means p hat

E(ph^2)=Var(ph)+(E(ph))^2
=Var(ph)+p^2
Var(ph) was calculated above, thus it's a biased estimator and the bias is Var(ph)
Reply 37
Original post by Andy Lau
Don't think simul equations are needed.
Simply find the variance for J and then do the pooled variance.....etc.


How did you find the variance for J without doing simultaneous equations?

did you find something like 2.0803
Original post by petermp
How did you find the variance for J without doing simultaneous equations?

did you find something like 2.0803


It said their variances can be assumed to be the same
here were some of my answers:

1.555 < 3.69 (not significant Q1)
2.1354 < 3.650 (not significant Q2?)
P(type I) = 0.0426 (Poisson q)
9 < 11 (not significant - Poisson q)
P(type II) = 0.8159 (Poisson q)
-2.828 < -1.533 (significant blackbird wing q)
Confidence interval for variance: (4.2159, 56.259 blackbird wing q)
1.0295 < 1.895 (not significant golf scores q?)
Confidence interval: (8.7905, 30something) (11 mark jam q)
(edited 6 years ago)

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