Not so sure, I think the biggest threat to our hopes are Montengro. Ukraine was always going to be a big game. Direct 3 points at stake and they have San Marino twice. Basically they are banker for 6 points and can directly catch us with 3. They were always going to be a threat, with the Poland game in there too, had they lost and beat us they would still be looking at 20 points. Montengro basically have 1 easy game against Moldova, by which time they could basically already be out of it. I'm going to say Poland aren't too much of the threat because even if they put themselves in contention, by doing so they are going to need results against Montengro or Ukraine, which helps us.
Its a tight group either way, key games will be Oct I would think we can ensure we pull away from Montengro if we beat them at Wembley, and a draw between Poland and Ukraine would be a bad result for both of them.
Not a great thing to say with Hodgson in charge a man who seem programmed to think a draw is a decent result, but England need to start scoring more than 1 goal in the big games. We've only conceded 3 goals, but in doing so have dropped 6 points.