The Somali Society Mk III

Eid Mubarak everyone

تَقَبَّلَ اللّهُ مِنَّ وَ مِنْكُمْ

May Allah accept it from us and you.

I haven't bought any clothes due to being too busy, practically coming to sleep around tomorrow. Not even going to bother with eid this time around.

Still going to order tons of cake

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ahh great, you studied. lets assume a relationship between positive future growth prospects and increasin interest rates. today the federal reserve announced an increase in central rates and there was an inverse correleation with the price of gold which went down. An increase in interest rates would assume contractionary fiscal implementation which suggests the S&P500* has stable growth. my hyptoheisis is that gold is used as a substitute investment product to hedge de risk of credit default of us firms when economic future is uncertain. now with relation to behavioural psychology attached to the field of finance, could it be possible to assume a psychological distinction with regards to individuals incentive to attribute past events with instinctive speculation to future potentieallities?

so, even if a reason to why rates were increased is announced could you correlate the fact that investors supposed theory to why rates would increase would make peoples reaction to an increase consistent with expectations. how would you go about conducting a measurement which would show the relation between a populations behaviour vs efficient market valuations (supposing they're based on same determinents). what data gathering methods are used by psychologists?

S&P500* - A recollection of top 500 us firms (representitive of economy)

Ohh crap. I wouldn't be able to give you an answer to that even If i tried. I swear you do this on purpose

only comment on the behavioural psychology aspect of it. thats what i want to observe because i strongly support the notion of behavioural finance and the way economic agents react to changes in the core fundamental principles to economic drivers. i want you to clarify whether the possible correlations can be related to psycholoigical theory as i havent a great depth in that area. if there are theories to back it up, it would be worth me exploring.

I just started 2 weeks ago
Sheesh kebaaaab give me a break bruh

I'll help you out once I study behaviourism in depth. And I havent the slightest clue about economics sp i cant help you in that aspect

you said you did at a levels, either way you have more knowledge than me. there are repeated historic correlations between interest rate movement announcements and the price of gold. the price of gold moves inversley to the risk attatched to us equitie, but supposing there was no announcements on future prospect of us firms (S&P500) why would investors (the subjects in this psychological experiement) sell gold for equities, assuming all other factors stayed consistent.

my question: why do people choose to act a certain way, in relation to incomplete information. is it due to historic occurencies? is it due to self-fulfilling prophecies in that leaders (respected investors) would influence others to make these choices, because they are percieved as 'reliable/correct'? What is the psychological incentives behind these investment decisions (other than the technical/fundamental understandings)?

any1 else on this forum do psychology, feel free to assist me with this predicament

Stop being so elaborate in your language if you want anyone to understand you and take your questions seriously. We understand you know how to use 'big words' and are well versed in economics and finance but those you are talking to atm aren't...take that into consideration please.

'In relation to incomplete information'? Act what way and to what information? No one can tell you without knowing what information is giving to these people and in what sense the given info is incomplete.
The only part I understand and can reply to is the leaders part. Figures of authority can influence behaviour a whole lot and are trusted when it comes to their actions and speech. What they say and do is seen to have some kind of reasoning behind it due to their authority (you wouldn't question a police officer pushing a man to the floor because of the uniform he wears). Therefore you would see what they do as the best thing (in the specific field they specialise in) and would attempt to follow the person to succeed....this is the same with past events, you see what works and doesn't work and base judgement on that to succeed.

Eid Mubarak to you to hun. Ameen Are you excited?

Alhamdulilah yeah I'm looking forward to tomorrow Eid prayer in particular I love very much, the minute I step out of my house there are Muslims everywhere walking to the masjid and I love seeing all the adorable kids in their mini thobes and hijabs! So cute masha'Allah. How about you sis?

hella wierd kid. not sure if legal

Um. ok

Posted from TSR Mobile

it would make no sense, without a context the question could be applied to. its a practical scenario to which an answer can be formulated. regardless, yes incomplete information to which investors speculate not based on fundamentals or technicals but simply of the notion of what other shareholders do/say. you suggest it challenges the theory of efficient market hypthesis and the basis for decisions is made with regards to the suggestions of supposed 'opinion leaders'.

can the concept of behavioural psychology be used to argue for why arbiatrige opportunities can arise in different exchanges depending on historical events witnessed in different geographic regions (inferred from ur example). is the theory an underlying explanation to why individuals react in consistent ways to uncertain scenario? especially if no validated proof of correlation between two variables (in this case equity/gold) is seen.

what good books are there surrounding behave psych?

If you cared about it making sense you wouldn't be trying so hard to make it difficult to understand. Or maybe you've just learnt course content without understanding and so can't explain it in simpler terms

So by 'incomplete information' you mean info based on observation?
Lmao you can't just drop in 'efficient market hypothesis' without explaining it and claim that that's what I implied.

Different events in different locations will cause different things to be observed and so people will react and learn differently from that info.

Uncertain situations lead to people making links to things that are in their knowledge that hold any similarities. A person would look at what they saw worked in a similar situation and try and apply that to the 'uncertain situation'...

I don't know any books because I haven't studied the subject, just using my common sense.

I cbb with anymore because you're just making no sense and you cbb to explain yourself so I'm just wasting my time.

we dont learn behavioural psychology. just economics. im trying to apply other concepts to whats being taught for a deeper understanding of how things can be explained relative to other disciplines.

i can do what i want when i want aslong as it doesnt breach tsr code of conduct and forum rules. i explained that already. information that is not fundamental analysis or technical analysis to accurately derive future expectation of a given security. you're complainin you dont know what im saying so further explanations would be pointless. incomplete information in your case = information that isn't complete, if simplicity is what you're afta.

ok, thanks for nothin i spsoe

You keep contradicting yourself. Just read the posts again and you'll see how one minute you say one thing is something and then you say it's another.

provide undeniable evidence 2 sed accusations. looked thru and nothn contradictoray. i asked a question, u failed to answer.. u said something bout police and then said i cba, so u generally wasted both our time. if u hav nothing relevant 2 contribute, u can go

Lolololololol I think you have difficulty understanding basic english. I answered your questions but I don't think you understood so asked more questions using the same foreign (to me) terms when I told you that you should stop that if you wanted answers. I said I cbb because you're acting like a child saying you can do whatever you want whenever you want when no one was stopping you...simply advising you that if you want answers then maybe stop being so overly elaborate.