**The "North Korea Watch 2013" Update Thread**

The government of SK don't need such convincers, they are far too well integrated into the policies of the US to require them. Either it was (a) propaganda aimed at the general population in SK - in which case, why, unless they are deeply afraid, which isn't the case by most accounts or (b) aimed at the NK government, as a crude attempt to put the frighteners on. Both (a) and (b) appear to be quite foolish.

It will probably emerge in due course (as it often has in the past where US policy is concerned) that this was some poorly thought-through overreaction by the Pentagon or the White House, against the better judgements of State, or some different combination of those elements.

Treating NK as a 'rational' player that can be scared into restraint probably isn't logical. It's difficult to know what's happening there - most reports by experts suggest this is part of some kind of internal difficulty Kim is having and a need to portray himself as tough. Escalation on the part of the US and SK will lead to further escalation by him if that is true.

A more cynical interpretation of US actions is that they do now intend to make a final solution to the NK problem and provoke a reaction serious enough to induce war. Perhaps removing Kim now might not be the worst thing one can imagine, but the cost will most probably be terribly high. Seoul is very vulnerable to quick attack for example. Japan is also probably at risk from missiles, although they are well defended.

You're very silly to think that they are a push over, they aren't. In fact if you ask a soldier who are the most craziest and determined threats, they won't say Russia, they will say North Korea.


This was posted from The Student Room's iPhone/iPad App

Just because SK has an incredibly close relationship with the US does not mean they do not need some proper reassurance from time to time, quite a few nations are starting to question just how a reliable ally the US is, especially with a rising China and its economic problems. I can easily see why SK would want the US to put its money where its mouth is so to speak, rhetoric only goes so far.

Some are starting to wonder if this is more than a move by Kim to reassure his powerbase in North Korea, first there was the satellite launch then a nuclear test now a constant barrage of rhetoric, there is a small chance there could be more going on than internal difficulty. Whilst threats won't work on a nation like North Korea appearing weak can be just as dangerous as provoking NK via military exercises. Look at the first Gulf war, Saddam attacked Kuwait because he did not believe America would step in, the US needs to avoid a repeat of that situation.

I highly doubt the US is trying to provoke some sort of final solution, it is completely against their interests, South Korea's and China's. I honestly think given the consequences trying to remove Kim would be the worst possible thing. Every player in the region wants the status quo. Any conflict would cost the American's hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives, only a lunatic would want another war on the peninsular.

Very good article here on the SAIS website about the repeated failures of the US and the West to understand what the NK regime are really up to and regular mistakes in policies towards them.
http://38north.org/2011/04/quagmire/

These mistakes appear to be continuing - their number one goal is regime survival and they will react wildly if they believe that is seriously being threatened. Sadly, it appears that the current US govt is indeed engaged in regime-threat activities rather than intelligent handling of this Stalinist antique led by an unknown, probably fairly irrational young 'leader', who may or may not be a figurehead.

I'll give it a proper read later but so far the article seems a tad one sided, blaming most things on the US and SK. I mean come on NK replies to live fire exercises with an actual artillery attack on the South and its the South and US's fault?

No, it's not saying that, it's talking about the best ways to handle such an impossibly idiotic and cruel regime without having to go to war.

There were some really interesting discussions with US and Asian officials on BBC Radio 4 news this lunchtime, the consensus amongst them was somewhat similar, but to be fair the US State Dept former head they had on was despairing about the willingness of the NK regime to commit long-term to any agreement. Basically when they want more resources they throw tantrums and make threats.

It was also very interesting that people now believe that China is choking off NK's food and oil supplies.

Actually it really isn't.
The official figure for the USA is that 90% of the population would be dead after 6 months...and this makes perfect sense as an EMP would knock out every car or lorry built after the 1970. Now considering a normal supermarket gets about 2 full artic. deliveries a day, imagine what would happen after a week of no deliveries combined with no water, heating etc.
Now NK can't do this as the altitude to do such a thing is very specific and I think the warhead has to be extremely large, but it is a major problem.

However, the USA could easily over power NK electronic warfare capability by sending in EF-111 that can operate from S.Korean/Japanese based airfields.

Shame the Americans retired them in 1998 then, isn't it?

Doh :P! I forgot! The last time I saw them was in an documentary about the first gulf war (During the Air campaign)

Even if the US suffered an EMP strike, it won't knock out everything. Electronics will survive or some will be repairable within days if not hours. Some contries powergrids are more susceptable than others. Military systems are going to be hardened. So if NK launched their single missile, which takes weeks to set up and is very obvious on satalite images. Their country would be flattened and if not by the US, someone else will do it.

They should be ignored for now as they are just attention seeking imho.

US now uses the Boeing EA-18G. It has an ...unfortunate... name.