Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

My regular odds tracker update:

Remain continues to shorten (look more likely).

Reminder betting odds are only reflective of the bets being placed

Possible reasons for skew-
- People simply think it'll go to remain
- Leave voters placing bets on remain so that even if they lose their country they at least get something

China is the whole f*cking reason why Liverpool became insignificant. Yeah, that's right, scouses, your city is insignificant!

Reminder betting odds are only reflective of the bets being placed

Possible reasons for skew-
- People simply think it'll go to remain
- Leave voters placing bets on remain so that even if they lose their country they at least get something

Some of that but it still shows their head has some confidence in a Remain outcome even if their heart is otherwise...

I would suggest you to look up the chronoligal dates when China become a economic super power and when Liverpool started to decline.

Liverpool started to decline in the 70s. The same time when the UK joined the EU. China was back than an agricultural country with a planned market. Its actuall rise started in the early 90s and late 80s. So, a good 15-20 years after Liverpool docks were killed.

If the UK leave the EU Liverpool will be great again.

Indeed, consensus that PPP is the better metric and China beats the US there

Posted from TSR Mobile

Some of that but it still shows their head has some confidence in a Remain outcome even if their heart is otherwise...

Edit: I guess one last attempt for any undecides here and Remainers who are light on need-to-know info.

Brexit: The Movie explains the EU nicely. https://vimeo.com/166389884

It likely wont swing the vote either way TBH, but people need to know what they're voting for and this movie does it in an accessible way.



I wouldn't call the EU safety, but I get what you're saying. :P

I hate to think how the untimely and pointless murder of a woman who was that unique of a politician--dutiful--has impacted the vote. I feel like if someone was wavering on the fence, such news would push them to Remain if only to disassociate (misguidedly although understandably) from a vote they now deem tainted by the far right.


Ah well. I'll be voting out regardless, and then we'll see where the fates lead us. I'll be disappointed but I'll have cast my vote for democracy, and if the UK chooses EU oligarchy along with it's other failings then that is the will of the country.
The EU hasn't made any secret of it's unwillingness to consider British interests or even humour reform away from anything but the federalist track so it's not as if Remain voters can claim to be uninformed or not to have known better when the EU inevitably becomes an issue of national debate again.

There's always a good chance the EU will continue to struggle and when the Eurozone implodes the whole thing will take care of itself and Britain will be Brexit by default.

In the mean-time I hope for no more political violence, and a happy polling day to all.

Remain has always been ahead and thr favourite. People are voting in and out, usually for wierd reasons..."i love migration. If we leave the eu our economy will burn. Unemployment will skyrocket. I'll have to pay for a visa to go to europe".
My points are simple: why would you choose unlimited immigration open borders over an australian style system?
Why not bring back the law-making process fully to the Uk, unless you don't support democratic processes that happen here?People voted for FPTP and not towards PR in 2011.
The Uk has a trade defecit with europe. If we leave and they put tariffs on our goods, we will retaliate and PROFIT!
If europe doesn't want to trade with us, there is the rest of the world. Are you telling me America, India, China wouldn't want to get more trade with the country? It will be the EU's loss, not ours.
Oh and the fact that the infrastructure of this country is already bursting... been on a tube lately? Been on a bus lately? Especially in London where people love to come to! The current government is not doing well. Osborne and Cameron have been too centrist and tbh it has back-fired. A vote leave would likely restore the conservative party by forcing Cameron to resign... and definately not Osborne next, unless you wanted him.

Orb poll for the Telegraph puts Remain 7 points ahead amongst people saying they will definitely vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/remain-moves-ahead-but-the-eu-referendum-vote-will-go-down-to-th/

Latest Yougov poll gives Leave 2% lead.

ORB is strange, that poll flips general thinking that leave voters are more motivated to vote. than Remainers. When all people taken into account remain only with a 2 % lead. 49%(=) - 47%(+3)

Yes, I think though that Orb use a mix of phone and doorstep methods, so it may be that their samples are more accurate than the self-selecting and internet-only ones at YouGov.

No, it was a pure phone interview. They do carry out separate online polls though.

I think another key takeaway from which i have found from these referendum analysts is that the polls are not a good predictor of what the final outcome will be and should be used as just momentum indicators.

I'm also surprised at the lack of swing towards remain as a result of both the Farage poster and Jo Cox death. I think this will go right down the wire despite what betting exchange odds tell us.

There is talk that the betting odds were influenced for market profits. The betting odds swing more drastically than the polls, the odds of remain from the bookies are WAY higher than those derived from the polls, but one could easily make large investments correctly and use the bookies to manipulate the market by making people think exit is more or less likely. And if you play it well you won't even be losing from the bookies.

Posted from TSR Mobile