[Official] 2024 US elections megathread

2024 is a big election year in America!

On 5th November, the United States will hold an election for president, as well as to elect a new House of Representatives and a third of its Senate (alongside various state and local contests).

This thread is the home of election discussion on TSR, to keep across the primaries and caucuses, the campaigns, election day and the results and fallout. If there are particular news stories during the course of the election, then News and Current Affairs threads can be made, but this is designed to be the main home of election-based discussion, and the OP will be updated accordingly through the year.

(edited 3 months ago)

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Reply 1

Saracen's Fez

Presidential election

The election of a new president takes place via an electoral college, with each state (plus Washington DC) being allotted a certain number of electoral votes, somewhat proportionately to their populations. Candidates win the electoral college votes from a state by winning the most votes in that state – exceptions are the split votes in Maine and Nebraska, where two electoral votes go to the state-wide winner and then one electoral vote goes to the winner of each federal electoral district in the state.

Here is the current electoral map, which has seen changes from the previous election following census results:

(edited 3 months ago)

Reply 2

Saracen's Fez

Senate election

US senators serve a term of six years, with a third of senators elected every two years on a rolling basis. Each state has two senators, with 100 in total, which means that two-thirds of states elect one of their senators at each Senate election.

This is the map for the 2024 Senate elections, showing states with an election taking place, coloured red for Republican inclumbents, blue for Democratic incumbents and dark grey for independent incumbents.

(edited 3 months ago)

Reply 3

Saracen's Fez

House of Representatives election

All members of the US House of Representatives are elected every two years, so the whole House is up for re-election. The election map, colour-coded by incumbents, is shown below. Dark grey shows new districts – and the outcome of New Yor's boundary changes is not yet known, after the proposed map was struck down in the courts.

Reply 4

Rakas21

Iowa Caucus starts tomorrow with New Hampshire the week afterwards.

Trump leads the Iowa Caucus with a little less than 50% of the vote. The bigger question appears to be how long Hayley and De Santis can hang in to rally the anti-Trump vote.

Polling suggests that Trump is a little less secure in New Hampshire however it's worth saying that second preference polling suggests that while the anti Trump vote is rallying behind Hayley, if De Santis and and Ragmawarni drop out then their votes split to Trump by about 2 to 1.

Basically, Trump has won unless De Santis can get the Hayley vote behind him (unlikely since he's Trump lite).

In terms of the actual presidential election..

Biden beats Trump imo (though he leads in current swing state polling).
De Santis and Hayley beat Biden IMO.

Of smaller note, the 2018 map swung towards the Republicans in the senate so the Democrats have a better chance of winning the Senate albeit the West Virginia senator is retiring and basically only keeps his seat by voting with Republicans so they need to win 2 to get a net gain of 1.

In terms of Congress, it's highly likely that the Republicans strengthen their lead here.

Reply 5

Andrew97

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Trump takes Iowa. About 51% of the vote. P2 is Ron de Santis on about 21%, Hayley p3 and about 19%

Vivek ramsaway was 4th and has pulled out, declared for trump.

Reply 6

Rakas21

Next is New Hampshire, Hayley is a clearer second here.

Reply 7

Andrew97

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

De Santis has pulled out. So for the republican nomination is Hayley V Trump

Reply 8

Rakas21

Polling previously suggested that De Santis voters are likely to break for Trump by about 2 to 1 so this is a great victory for Trump in all likelihood. It has taken him a week to basically win the nomination.

Reply 9

Andrew97

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Original post by Rakas21

Trump was always winning tje nomination tbh

Reply 10

Rakas21

Original post by Andrew97

Trump was always winning tje nomination tbh

I expected the party to put up a little more of a fight to Super Tuesday. To eradicate opposition inside a week is pretty Impressive.

Reply 11

Gazpacho.

wonderful to see spineless DeSantis endorsing a man that accused him of child grooming.

Reply 12

Andrew97

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

So update Biden won’t be prosecuted for mishandling documents as he would appear to a jury an old man with poor Memory,

They haven’t given trump ammo, they’ve given him a bazooka

Reply 13

Napp

Original post by Gazpacho.

wonderful to see spineless DeSantis endorsing a man that accused him of child grooming.

Did he really have a choice? I mean, 2 points here:
1) Who in their right mind would endorse Haley? Everyone has known since day 1 that she was a dead woman walking in that race
2) As far as loyalty to the cause goes, he didnt have much of a choice. He'd sooner see a republican beat Biden than not and acting as a spoiler out of spite is hardly helpful.

Reply 14

Napp

Original post by Andrew97

So update Biden won’t be prosecuted for mishandling documents as he would appear to a jury an old man with poor Memory,

They haven’t given trump ammo, they’ve given him a bazooka

One of the funniest reports ive seen come out of Washington in some time. 'This man is too doddery and old to be held accountable for breaking the law' whilst not only talking about a sitting president but one with ambitions to run again :lol:

Say what you will about Trump, and theres a lot, but as you noted he was given an absolute gem with that one.

Reply 15

Talkative Toad

Volunteer Team

Original post by Napp

Say what you will about Trump, and theres a lot, but as you noted he was given an absolute gem with that one.

Yeah if that’s the argument being given for Biden then you question why he should be running again given his age and what being a president involves.

(edited 2 months ago)

Reply 16

jacksmith23

Original post by Talkative Toad

Yeah if that’s the argument being given for Biden then you question why he should be running again given his age and what being a president involves.

he's the best realistic option out of all options. Kamal Harris is more disliked, the other two dons have no chance and are probably harder to back. It should not rerun probably but let's go brandon.

Reply 17

Talkative Toad

Volunteer Team

Original post by jacksmith23

he's the best realistic option out of all options. Kamal Harris is more disliked, the other two dons have no chance and are probably harder to back. It should not rerun probably but let's go brandon.