2023–24 by-elections thread

There's another Tory seat in Somerset and Froome.

There's also a recall petition in Rutherglen (SNP could well lose the seat to Labour based on current polling).

Reply 2

Saracen's Fez

I've edited the thread title to reflect this.

Labour gain Uxbridge, Rutherglen and probably Selby.

Lib Dems gain Somerton and potentially Mid Beds.

Reply 3

OP

Original post by Rakas21

There's another Tory seat in Somerset and Froome.

There's also a recall petition in Rutherglen (SNP could well lose the seat to Labour based on current polling).

Yes it could be five or even six now, but Nadine Dorries appears to be hanging on to the bitter end. So maybe it's five now?

Reply 4

Original post by Saracen's Fez

I've edited the thread title to reflect this.

Labour gain Uxbridge, Rutherglen and probably Selby.

Lib Dems gain Somerton and potentially Mid Beds.

Not sold on Selby although the former 2 are a given.

While we have a small sample, Labour have not actually increased their share of the vote by more than 11% in any by-election this parliament even in seats they've won so unless the Liberal Democrats and Greens genuinely are not on the ballot then this suggests there's simply not the enthiasm to vote Labour, at least relative to the kinds of swings the Lib Dem's have acomplished. Selby is a seat that requires a 15%+ swing from Con to Lab and Lab have struggled to get enthusiastic by-election support.

So i'll probably go for a Tory hold there.

Mid-Bedforshire is definitely under threat (only vote splitting might save the seat) and we have lost Somerset.

(edited 10 months ago)

Reply 5

OP

Original post by Saracen's Fez

Lib Dems gain Somerton and potentially Mid Beds.

Not sure about Mid Beds - Labour came second there in '19, but even with the current Tory collapse it looks like the Tories might still be in with a good chance to hold onto it..

General election 2019: Mid Bedfordshire
Conservative Nadine Dorries 38,692
Labour Rhiannon Meades 14,028
Liberal Democrats Rachel McGann 8,171
Green Gareth Ellis 2,478 3.8 +1.0

Majority 24,664 38.1 +4.9
Turnout 64,717 73.7 −3.0
Conservative hold Swing +2.4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

/

(edited 10 months ago)

Reply 6

OP

New poll showing Labour leading the Tories 41:29 in Selby.
https://twitter.com/LucyWoodslucy70/status/1678053523018199043

Lots of love-bombing the voters going on in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The poll shows Labour ahead of the Tories by 41:33 there.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/byelection-uxbridge-selby-labour-conservative-sunak-starmer-b1092842.html
Looks like Boris stepped aside in time to avoid total humiliation.

LibDems are currently betting at 1-20 on to take Somerton and Frome.
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/one-party-emerges-massive-favourite-8570504

Voting takes place on Thurs July 20th.

Reply 7

SHallowvale

14

Original post by Fullofsurprises

New poll showing Labour leading the Tories 41:29 in Selby.
https://twitter.com/LucyWoodslucy70/status/1678053523018199043

Lots of love-bombing the voters going on in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The poll shows Labour ahead of the Tories by 41:33 there.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/byelection-uxbridge-selby-labour-conservative-sunak-starmer-b1092842.html
Looks like Boris stepped aside in time to avoid total humiliation.

LibDems are currently betting at 1-20 on to take Somerton and Frome.
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/one-party-emerges-massive-favourite-8570504

Voting takes place on Thurs July 20th.

I'm surprised the lead in Selby is so large but not the lead in Uxbridge. If anything you'd think it would be the other way around as BJ's majority was never that big.... weird!

Reply 8

OP

Original post by SHallowvale

I'm surprised the lead in Selby is so large but not the lead in Uxbridge. If anything you'd think it would be the other way around as BJ's majority was never that big.... weird!

I wonder if the Ulez issue is affecting views there? It's a pretty hot subject around the outer parts of London.

Reply 9

SHallowvale

14

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I wonder if the Ulez issue is affecting views there? It's a pretty hot subject around the outer parts of London.

It could be, that's a good point. It could also just be a BJ effect. I imagine support for a party increases in a constituency if their member has a high profile position in government, even if said member is a ****. So the Conservative's relatively high polling might be, in part, lingering support for Boris.

Reply 10

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I wonder if the Ulez issue is affecting views there? It's a pretty hot subject around the outer parts of London.

Original post by SHallowvale

It could be, that's a good point. It could also just be a BJ effect. I imagine support for a party increases in a constituency if their member has a high profile position in government, even if said member is a ****. So the Conservative's relatively high polling might be, in part, lingering support for Boris.

Digging a bit deeper and the Tories are down about 20% in Uxbridge which is actually worse than national polling but it's splintering.

So basically the two things are here are..

1) Tory has a lot of people going DK.

But

2) When Boris was a candidate and then PM there was so much attention pushed on him that the Con-Lab vote squeezed the life out of third parties. Nationally the Con-Lab vote was 76% ish, in Uxbridge this was 90%. Bar direct Con-Lab transfer (nationally a fair chunk of the Labour lead is Tory going DK) there are simply not many votes for Labour to pick up because their starting base was higher.

If Labour do only win by about 10% of the vote it interestingly paints the possibility that the Tories might actually hold the seat in a general election if Sunak can pump turnout and the Labour lead is say only 9%.

...

In Selby the Tory vote is down about 30% with Labour picking up 16% and Reform picking up about 8%.

Given the likely large levels of Tories going DK and therefore staying home come the by-election, I would like Chesham (the Lib Dem's had their big win with less nominal votes than they got in 2019) be exceptionally surprised if general election turnout saw the seat stay red even in a big win for Labour.

Reply 11

OP

Original post by Rakas21

Digging a bit deeper and the Tories are down about 20% in Uxbridge which is actually worse than national polling but it's splintering.

So basically the two things are here are..

1) Tory has a lot of people going DK.

But

2) When Boris was a candidate and then PM there was so much attention pushed on him that the Con-Lab vote squeezed the life out of third parties. Nationally the Con-Lab vote was 76% ish, in Uxbridge this was 90%. Bar direct Con-Lab transfer (nationally a fair chunk of the Labour lead is Tory going DK) there are simply not many votes for Labour to pick up because their starting base was higher.

If Labour do only win by about 10% of the vote it interestingly paints the possibility that the Tories might actually hold the seat in a general election if Sunak can pump turnout and the Labour lead is say only 9%.

...

In Selby the Tory vote is down about 30% with Labour picking up 16% and Reform picking up about 8%.

Given the likely large levels of Tories going DK and therefore staying home come the by-election, I would like Chesham (the Lib Dem's had their big win with less nominal votes than they got in 2019) be exceptionally surprised if general election turnout saw the seat stay red even in a big win for Labour.

Yes, there's probably a lot more staying at home intention than actively swinging going on, but it's hard to read until we get to the exact results and (hopefully) some exit polling and hanging on to by-election won seats is always tough when things narrow in general elections. That said, sometimes parties manage it and the LibDems, apart from the last few years since the Coalition, generally did well at retaining.

The last three general elections have all hovered around the 67% turnout level and it will be interesting to see if it goes higher next time. In '97 it was 71% but it's been down throughout since then and was actually slightly higher for May-Corbyn in '17 than it was for Johnson-Corbyn in '19, despite all the claims from Johnson fans that he inspired the masses.

Reply 12

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Yes, there's probably a lot more staying at home intention than actively swinging going on, but it's hard to read until we get to the exact results and (hopefully) some exit polling and hanging on to by-election won seats is always tough when things narrow in general elections. That said, sometimes parties manage it and the LibDems, apart from the last few years since the Coalition, generally did well at retaining.

The last three general elections have all hovered around the 67% turnout level and it will be interesting to see if it goes higher next time. In '97 it was 71% but it's been down throughout since then and was actually slightly higher for May-Corbyn in '17 than it was for Johnson-Corbyn in '19, despite all the claims from Johnson fans that he inspired the masses.

Yeah. It does somewhat rest on the assumption that voters who stay home in by-elections still turn out for elections. That's not been tested by a very poor polling government. We'd have to look at the 05-09 by-elections and see if Labour took any back in 2010 as a comparable analogue.

Yeah. The referendum of course had a turnout of 72% (highest since 92 i believe) and Con-Lab both committed to Brexit in 2017 and were rewarded for this with the highest combined vote since around 1970 (not because people wanted Brexit en masse but because they had given the public a vote on an issue they actually cared for and were respecting said result). Unfortunately, the 17-19 parliament does appear to have destroyed some of that democratic dividend as some people (suprisingly almost a similar amount) of Tories and Labour voters moved to Lib Dem and others clearly just stayed home.

I'll comment on the other by-elections later.

Reply 13

OP

Interesting article on Uxbridge & Ruislip - mentions Ulez, the campaigns, different areas and types of voter.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/12/going-to-be-close-byelection-boris-johnson-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-labour-conservatives

Reply 14

OP

Only a couple of days to go now.

Report from Selby - sounds like the Tories are worried there and a lot of Tory voters are fed up, but it's a very large Tory majority, so it would be fairly astonishing if Labour overturned it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/18/tories-labour-selby-ainsty-byelection

Reply 15

OP

Even the international media are interested in Uxbridge - here's CNN, who are put out because Labour's candidate denied them an interview.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/18/uk/boris-johnson-labour-uxbridge-byelection-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Reply 16

Choreomania

9

You just need to look at the reasons why the respective MPs quote their seats to understand why the Conservative Party deserves to lose all three.

Reply 17

SHallowvale

14

I have a feeling that the Conservatives will retain one of these seats, at least. I'd love to be proven wrong but the party has a habit of clinging on to power despite being utterly ****. 😂

Reply 18

OP

Original post by Choreomania

You just need to look at the reasons why the respective MPs quote their seats to understand why the Conservative Party deserves to lose all three.

Did you mean 'quit' there? Yes, they seem to have given up governing now and are just chucking out the odd bit of gesture politics whilst seeking new careers. Parliament basically has no business going on right now.

Reply 19

OP