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Reply 80
abc123
so for the last question, some of us accepted Ho, while others rejected it. is anyone 110% of what the anwser was, because this question was worth 10 marks?




Hi, the answer was definately to accept the null hypothesis, the probability was about 0.04 which is > 0.025
Well with the binomial you have in the context you can do it with 1- (Px=0 +px=1 + px=2) so why add in an extra approximation?
Reply 82
I approximated using POisson as well (same as other people have said). The first part it was random events in a week and it wanted you to find probaililty they had to get more people in to work. Ie P(X>50) I think it said.
ONce you had worked out the probability they were short staffed for the first part 0.021 then you used that for the second part
X~B(50,0.021)
I know i'm gettin a bit argumentative here but this is the first maths paper this year i feel i've done really well in, and it all seemed 2 make sense :biggrin:
Reply 84
3 pi is exactly
Well with the binomial you have in the context you can do it with 1- (Px=0 +px=1 + px=2) so why add in an extra approximation?



Because you can't work out a binomail with n=50, the tables don't go that far, so you have to approximate
Reply 85
3 pi is exactly
Well with the binomial you have in the context you can do it with 1- (Px=0 +px=1 + px=2) so why add in an extra approximation?


Because it asked you to?
Reply 86
abc123
Because you can't work out a binomail with n=50, the tables don't go that far, so you have to approximate


lol

50C0 P^50 etc................. too many calculations, much better to approximate using Poisson.
Reply 87
SVSV
Hi, the answer was definately to accept the null hypothesis, the probability was about 0.04 which is > 0.025


Cheers, that a relief.
Bhaal85
lol

50C0 P^50 etc................. too many calculations, much better to approximate using Poisson.



Well the binomial you use is an approx to the normal from before so you are using another approx like they ask in the q, and its only 3 calculations which isnt too bad. It doesnt look like theres anything wrong with using the binomial or the poisson so will they have to give marks for either method or is one of them just wrong?
Reply 89
Come on easiest question was worth 10 marks can't ask for much more than that.

I heard M2 wasn't so nice, lucky Statisticians aren't we.
Wouldn't know about M2 this year, did it last year, but mech 3 and 4 this year didnt seem too bad, so maybe OCR just decided to be a bit harsher on M2. But how do people reckon they did all together on the Stats? Is there going to be a decent UMS scale factor or not?
Reply 91
3 pi is exactly
Well the binomial you use is an approx to the normal from before so you are using another approx like they ask in the q, and its only 3 calculations which isnt too bad. It doesnt look like theres anything wrong with using the binomial or the poisson so will they have to give marks for either method or is one of them just wrong?


Well firstly the binomial we use in part B) is refering to a different situation than part A), in sense part A) was all about getting the p value for B), so its not a double approximation or any thing like that. As far as marks go, i don't see how you could of used the binomial anyway, unless you spent 30mins working out the binomial equations....
abc123
Well firstly the binomial we use in part B) is refering to a different situation than part A), in sense part A) was all about getting the p value for B), so its not a double approximation or any thing like that. As far as marks go, i don't see how you could of used the binomial anyway, unless you spent 30mins working out the binomial equations....


It was just 1 - ((P x=0) + (P x=1) + (P x=2)) so just the 3 binomials to play with... I hope :biggrin:
Reply 93
3 pi is exactly
It was just 1 - ((P x=0) + (P x=1) + (P x=2)) so just the 3 binomials to play with... I hope :biggrin:


ok then...explain to me how you did just p(x=2) under X~B(50,0.021)....
Reply 94
has ne one got the paper so they can scan it on, i no i did the right method for the last qs, two tailed n everything but i swear, that i got a pbility of 0.0286, or sumfin, was there an ans like that for sumfin else, i no i did the method right so im really confused about where i went wrong, i really dont rember gettin 0.04
abc123
ok then...explain to me how you did just p(x=2) under X~B(50,0.021)....


Use standard binomial equation 50C2 x (0.021)^2 x (1-0.021)^48
Reply 96
3 pi is exactly
Use standard binomial equation 50C2 x (0.021)^2 x (1-0.021)^48


yeah i can see where your coming from...although i'm still sure that we were supposed to approximate using poisson.....lol i'm sure one of us is right

Oh yeah, the question did ask us to use an approximation....so the poisson method is correct..i think
abc123
yeah i can see where your coming from...although i'm still sure that we were supposed to approximate using poisson.....lol i'm sure one of us is right

Oh yeah, the question did ask us to use an approximation....so the poisson method is correct..i think


Well the binomial is still an approx to the normal from before, so who knows lol. But it was a 5 mark question so whatever method they wanted us to use, theres still got to be 2 marks or sumthin for usin the other 1 hehe, so hopefully still on for an A... Ox here i come :biggrin:
Reply 98
so does anyone have the actual paper? if so, can it be scanned?
Reply 99
lol, reading threads like this gets so frustrating, there's nothing you can do about it now anyway... I was happier about the exam before I started reading this thread... Always something little to take away from the marks...

I got something like 0.002 on the type II error, btw, but I can't remember the methods...

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