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Estimation, confidence intervals and tests - S3 Edexcel

Hello guys,




For this question, it says the mean of the individual sales of leaded petrol during this time is £8.72.

The question asks for an interval within which 90% of the sales of leaded petrol will lie.

First, I was confused haha.
Then I realised, if I label L as leaded petrol.
Lˉ N(8.72,3.252n)\bar{L} ~ N (8.72, \frac{3.25^2}{n}) where n would be the sales of leaded petrol (not given in the question).

So the distribution of L is L N(8.72,3.252)L ~ N (8.72, 3.25^2)

Therefore, a confidence interval for L would be: Lˉ±zsigman\bar{L} \pm z * \frac{sigma}{\sqrt n}, but as there is no n value, they haven't used it.

This will give us exactly what is given in the solution bank below:




Is that the correct understanding for this question? I'm not sure how else they'd have got it lol.

The only problem is there is no n value, so do we just get rid of n from the formula and use it like they've done in the solution? Can we even do that?
(edited 6 years ago)
Reply 1
Another question:

In S3, where we calculate confidence intervals for a population parameter (from a normal distribution).
So, we are estimating μ, we calculate a confidence interval based on z from the normal distribution.

Is it because the normal distribution and the formula, the confidence interval will always be symmetrical about the mean?

μ - lower confidence limit = upper confidence limit - μ ?
Original post by Chittesh14




For this question, it says the mean of the individual sales of leaded petrol during this time is £8.72.

The question asks for an interval within which 90% of the sales of leaded petrol will lie.

The only problem is there is no n value, so do we just get rid of n from the formula and use it like they've done in the solution? Can we even do that?


You are leaping too quickly into trying to use the formula for the distribution of a sample mean. For the leaded petrol, you are given the population mean and standard deviation. You therefore simply need to calculate mean+1.6449 x 3.25 and mean-1.6449 x 3.25to get the interval they want.

Part (d), concerning the unleaded petrol will require you to use the sample formulae.
Original post by Chittesh14
Another question:

In S3, where we calculate confidence intervals for a population parameter (from a normal distribution).
So, we are estimating μ, we calculate a confidence interval based on z from the normal distribution.

Is it because the normal distribution and the formula, the confidence interval will always be symmetrical about the mean?

μ - lower confidence limit = upper confidence limit - μ ?


For a unimodal symmetric distribution, it is conventional to have symmetrical confidence intervals. Certainly at S3 for anything involving the normal distribution!
Reply 4
Original post by Gregorius
You are leaping too quickly into trying to use the formula for the distribution of a sample mean. For the leaded petrol, you are given the population mean and standard deviation. You therefore simply need to calculate mean+1.6449 x 3.25 and mean-1.6449 x 3.25to get the interval they want.

Part (d), concerning the unleaded petrol will require you to use the sample formulae.


Yeah, I didn't read the question properly. I was worked backwards lol. You are too good, thank you. I didn't get the sample formulae part.
The only formula I've been taught is the confidence interval (is that what you're referring to?)



P.S. You're too good. I think I get it now. Is it trying to say P(X < L < Y) = 0.90 where X and Y are the lower and upper limits respectively of the interval.

P (Z > Y8.723.25\frac{Y-8.72}{3.25}) = 0.05

So, Y8.723.25\frac{Y - 8.72}{3.25} = 1.6449
Y = 8.72 + 3.25 * 1.6649

As, it is symmetrical: X = 8.72 - 3.25 * 1.6649
(edited 6 years ago)
Reply 5
Original post by Gregorius
For a unimodal symmetric distribution, it is conventional to have symmetrical confidence intervals. Certainly at S3 for anything involving the normal distribution!


Thank you, this is great news. Now I can use this to check my answers for confidence intervals :biggrin:!
Reply 6
Original post by Chittesh14
Yeah, I didn't read the question properly. I was worked backwards lol. You are too good, thank you. I didn't get the sample formulae part.
The only formula I've been taught is the confidence interval (is that what you're referring to?)



P.S. You're too good. I think I get it now. Is it trying to say P(X < L < Y) = 0.90 where X and Y are the lower and upper limits respectively of the interval.

P (Z > Y8.723.25\frac{Y-8.72}{3.25}) = 0.05

So, Y8.723.25\frac{Y - 8.72}{3.25} = 1.6449
Y = 8.72 + 3.25 * 1.6649

As, it is symmetrical: X = 8.72 - 3.25 * 1.6649


Can someone confirm if I've done it right here? @Gregorius @Notnek @ghostwalker
Original post by Chittesh14
Can someone confirm if I've done it right here? @Gregorius @Notnek @ghostwalker


Looks fine, apart from the fact that Φ1(0.95)=1.6449\Phi^{-1}(0.95)=1.6449, not 1.6649
Reply 8
Original post by ghostwalker
Looks fine, apart from the fact that Φ1(0.95)=1.6449\Phi^{-1}(0.95)=1.6449, not 1.6649


Thank you, you've got eyes like an eagle!

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