I've been hearing that FIFA has said that there would be 5 candidates this year so here are my top 4 contenders...
Ronaldo:
Will win because:
So far scored 63 goals this calendar year and he just can't stop scoring and has been phenomenal. Top scorer in Champions League
Won't win because:
No matter the amount of goals he has scored, he has no silverware to back up his astonishing 2013.
Messi:
Will win because:
45 goals so far in 2013 and has won his domestic league as well as being top scorer in Laliga with 46 goals.
Won't win because:
Simply has been unlucky with injuries as well as the fact that Barca got thumped in the semi finals by an impressive Bayern.
Ribery:
Will win because:
16 goals so far in 2013 and countless assists. Was fundamental in Bayern's treble winning season and won best European player of the year award. This definitely gives him the edge over Ronaldo and Messi.
Won't win because:
Goals wise, Ronaldo and Messi are far far superior and also the fact that from the quarters onwards of the Champions League, his performance level dropped slightly and robben took centre stage in the final. Moreover, many pundits are saying Bayern were an amazing 'team' and didn't rely solely on Ribery as well as the fact that there's a distinct possibility that he won't be present in the 2014 world cup (lost 2-0 to Ukraine in the 1st leg)
Ibrahimovic:
Will win because:
Has scored many marvellous goals this year (Goal against England is massively favourite to win Puskas award) and has led PSG to the French title in a long long time.
Along with Ronaldo, has started this season on fire.
Won't win because:
Many consider the French league to be weak compared to the other 3 top European Leagues
CONCLUSION:
In my opinion, I would believe its between Ribery and Ronaldo. I think Ronaldo would win it for 2013 although I do believe no player has won the Balon D'or without any silverware. Ribery has a huge opportunity to break the Duopoly on the Balon D'or but I just don't see him winning it for some odd reason.