It is very competitive to get a TC from any sort of firm, purely based on the fact that there are substantially more applicants than there are jobs. However, just because it is difficult and hard work does not mean it is impossible, so don't lose faith yet!
As others have said, do focus on getting a good 2:1 because low uni grades will sadly hold you back substantially.
You mention not wanting to commit to trying to get a TC for fear of failure, but frustratingly you do need to demonstrate that you are fully committed to a career in law in order to get a TC. When I did my first VS, I was rejected for a TC because they could tell that I still had a tiny bit of doubt about whether or not I was set on law (coincidentally this doubt was because I was worried about being set on such a competitive career). Even if you are their best applicant, firms will be very reluctant to offer a TC to someone who isn't completely sure about the career because there's much more risk of them dropping out during training or upon qualification - training contracts are very expensive for firms, therefore they'll want to be as sure as possible that their candidates will stay with them. When it comes to getting a VS, firms will have more leeway in accepting people who are perhaps not 100% certain on law but if you don't prove them wrong on this during the VS then they are very unlikely to make you an offer - this isn't just anecdotal, I've also been told this by grad rec at multiple firms.
The conversion rate of VS to TC does depend heavily on the firm - with some careful googling, you can get a good idea of how many vac schemers a firm might take. If you read the applicant FAQs on firms' websites these can also give a good idea of the conversion rate. Firms rarely seem to have a set number of TC places for VS and a set number for direct apps, if that helps. It's very difficult to know how things will look this year for vac schemes given covid, but firms still need to recruit trainees so it's in their interest to continue their schemes somehow (many are running them virtually). From what I've seen, winter schemes are still up in the air but firms seem confident in having in-person spring and summer schemes next year
In terms of what you can do to help get a vac scheme, there is no one thing you can do to ensure success but my top tips would be:
- Ensure that you have an authentic and original motivation for going into law - make sure that this is very specific to regional law, rather than high street or city
- Apply early - an increasing number of firms seems to be reviewing apps on a rolling basis, so applying early increases your chances of having your app read and hopefully accepted
- Have someone else read all apps before you send them (I'm always shocked at how much others cut out of my answers but it's so useful)
- Get in touch with someone at the firm - particularly if you've been offered an interview, I always have a look on LinkedIn and reach out to a current or future trainee (generally someone who went to my uni) and find out a bit more about the firm and what they're looking for
- If you haven't already got legal work experience, make this a priority - get in touch with local high street firms and ask to shadow a lawyer for a day or two (more difficult at the moment but worth a try!); get involved with your uni's law soc, particularly if they do some sort of pro bono; virtual vac schemes on InsideSherpa, particularly if the firm you're applying to run a scheme on there
Good luck and feel free to get in touch if you need any more help!