Lost money gambling

Original post by The Troll Toll

You must be addicted to 2p2 if you recognize me from there because I have like 5 posts.

But yeah, the one post in that thread kind of illustrates variance. Getting it in with KK against a calling range of probably JJ+, AK and a couple of 4bet-folding combinations and losing because I ran into aces is variance. The AK one is not necessarily as clear cut but again it's a pretty defensible play that didn't work. Randomly betting on favourites and losing isn't really variance, it's just the house realising its edge.

Have you also noticed that quite a significant number of the best poker players are actually ex tcg players that under the concept of game theory.....i.e. ex Magic the Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon.....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=wise_gary&id=4259905

Old article, but if you can't deal with high pressure situations give up....if you have no concept of winning.... give up..... professional gamblers can deal with high pressure.

(edited 11 years ago)

Reply 483

Dukeofwembley

Original post by CoolStoryBroo

Put it in my ISA. It's now £4700

get a stocks and shares isa or dump it in zopa and funding circle

Reply 484

Dukeofwembley

Original post by rjm101

I'll stick to stocks, bonds and index funds thank you. You always hear about the successful phew and little about the many who loose it all. Also as someone whos not a particular sports fanatic this doesnt really help anyway.

learn random walk theory

with the stock market you are fighting with the cream of the crop

with gambling you are fighting against the murky bottom

Can you think of a reason why i have been limited at a 5 bookie shops?(£10 bets)

Reply 485

Original post by fat_hobbit

TBH some of my bets that i have lost, its like WTF, how?

Team has 10 men, one shot on target, they score

or

that example.

Unlucky, if anything.

It might be unlucky, but let's just say we back a team at odds of 2.0 or evens and let's presume these odds reflect the true probability of the outcome, which is 50%.

If we place this bet 1,000 times we would expect the team to win 50% of the time and not win 50% of the time.

When they don't win it does not matter if they lost 10-0 or lost 1-0 after a last minute penalty which should never have been given. I will concede it's hard, but if you are genuinely finding value bets and understand what value means, then you should be able to emotionally detach yourself from this "luck".

I had 18 winning months in a row until January, which was a horror month. However, I knew the profit I made over the 18 winning months far exceeded what the percentages dictated I should have won, so I just regarded January as my results beginning to balance themselves out, so to speak.

Percentages don't lie and given time will reveal themselves, so as long as you are making the right bets and have a sensible staking plan you will win in the long run.

I could quite easily sit and wait for Man U to play teams in the bottom 3 at Old Trafford and put huge sums on because surely they will win? They probably will, but the chances the odds offer value are slim, so I will lose in the long run.

Reply 486

Original post by Dukeofwembley

learn random walk theory

with the stock market you are fighting with the cream of the crop

with gambling you are fighting against the murky bottom

Can you think of a reason why i have been limited at a 5 bookie shops?(£10 bets)

That is true, unless your a high end trader, your not going to be making coin. I don't have a maths or finance degree from LSE, so I gave up trying to be the Barcelona of that, rather play direct and get ££ from sports betting far more enjoyment as well! Especially if you do it properly, less regulated. To just open up a new stocks shares isa for this year, I had so many regulatory questions, because i work in a regulated role, id rather deal in bets.

Reply 487

Dukeofwembley

Also tell me what stocks make 5-10% a month or even higher,

i had a friend who made 10 % of 25 grand in 1 month(chelts festival)

what stocks and shared offer this return?

Reply 488

Original post by Dukeofwembley

Also tell me what stocks make 5-10% a month or even higher,

i had a friend who made 10 % of 25 grand in 1 month(chelts festival)

what stocks and shared offer this return?

None,lol......the closes thing is spread betting, that is considered gambling under regulated by the gambling commission. Poor guy, you would have to say, white collar wannabe...

Reply 489

Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it unti you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.

Reply 490

Original post by Flying Cookie

Even sports betting can have a bit more logic than roulette.

It has a lot more logic.

Reply 491

Original post by DaveSmith99

Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it unti you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.

I disagree there, I hate poker, I gave up when I realised when I wasn't going to make at least a £1,000+ from it.

http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/iPoker/players/NitishD

If your intelligent enough, you won't lose money, I started playing and I didn't have a clue what the hell was going on. Playing decent stakes as well if you look.

(edited 11 years ago)

Reply 492

Original post by DaveSmith99

Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it until you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.

"Acceptable" is a poor choice of word, but I know what you mean.

You are, however, quite wrong. All betting is about maths and if you gain an edge then you will win - this is possible in many forms of betting.

Reply 493

Original post by Flying Cookie

I won £120 on Obama's re-election. I love politics bets because there is a way to judge and estimate the outcome in a way non-existent for roulette gambling - that's why politics bets are so scarce whereas simple gambling is everywhere. Even sports betting can have a bit more logic than roulette, so change your niche if you must, but really you shouldn't be pouring so much into gambling in the first place.

That was like a dead cert that bet.....paddy power had it 4/6 2-3 weeks before the election dropped to 4/11 came to a point they went in to 1/4 - 1/6 and then they just paid out.... you just have to look at the individual state betting 1/5 - 1/6 those were dead certs if you go on them in certain strongholds. Didn't take a genius to work them out just a daily newpaper and CNN.

Reply 494

Original post by pane123

"Acceptable" is a poor choice of word, but I know what you mean.

You are, however, quite wrong. All betting is about maths and if you gain an edge then you will win - this is possible in many forms of betting.

In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.

Reply 495

Original post by DaveSmith99

In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.

Best thing to judge a player if there making money is to use tools like Sharkscope, they have the whole database of online poker tournaments. I just love shutting people up that say they make money, when in effect they are down big time. It hilarious hearing stories about it, people getting into debt.

Reply 496

Original post by DaveSmith99

In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.

The house edge in blackjack can be overcome, but that's another (long) story.

Anyway, if you look at earlier posts in this thread, you will see that the main topic of conversation is sports betting. When I say you can find an edge in other forms of gambling, I was meaning sports betting, not casino games.

Reply 497

Original post by pane123

The house edge in blackjack can be overcome, but that's another (long) story.

Anyway, if you look at earlier posts in this thread, you will see that the main topic of conversation is sports betting. When I say you can find an edge in other forms of gambling, I was meaning sports betting, not casino games.

Yeah its possible to make money in sports betting, but its much more of a risk, I know good gamblers who have lost thousands sports betting as sport can be so wildly unpredictable. If you know what you're doing with poker though you can just sit back, play tight, get your money in good and play the maths.

Reply 498

Original post by DaveSmith99

Yeah its possible to make money in sports betting, but its much more of a risk, I know good gamblers who have lost thousands sports betting as sport can be so wildly unpredictable. If you know what you're doing with poker though you can just sit back, play tight, get your money in good and play the maths.

I disagree. It's not wildly unpredictable - if it were then I would never place a bet.

You have taken far too simplistic a view of sports betting and poker here, I'm afraid.

Reply 499