Original post by jackf1337You've gotta do your research on games. I'd say that at least 40% of the time, a favourite priced at 1.2-1.9 doesn't win.
When I say research, factor in these things when looking at any given fixture (no particular order):
1) The surface; are either of the players particularly good on the surface in question? And on the flip side, are either of the players particularly bad on the surface in question?
2) The form; are either of the players on a bad run of form? I went against favourites Seppi and Raonic today. They both won but both were on a poor run of form. I think betting on +3.5 sets would've been more worthwhile, but there was a lot of value in their opponents. Llodra, Raonic's opponent, was backed from 4.33 to 3.5 overnight.
3) Know your players. It would be a nigh on impossible task to know how every player on the ATP, Challenger and ITF tours player, but if you start watching matches, you'll pick up on a number of players games in due course. What I'm getting at here is the individuals specialities and weaknesses. A basic example is that Novak Djokovic is bloody good server and that Andy Murray's strength is in the returns. This can then link to my first point; however much you'd think Murray would be a better clay player than Djokovic, this simply isn't the case, and one of many reasons why you should study the game.
Aside from form, another reason I backed Llodra to overcome Raonic is that Raonic is a power server (I believe he has the biggest serve on the ATP tour), however, Llodra is pretty damn good at powerful returns. Added to the fact Llodra was at home (a point I'll expand on later), there was a lot of value to be had backing Llodra at 4.33.
4) Home advantage. Are either of the players in the match you're looking at playing at home? What's their record like at home?
I'll draw you to the Monfils game earlier. Monfils was somewhat an outsider in his encounter with Gulbis this afternoon, backed in at 2.1 for the start of play. However, one of the reasons I decided to back Monfils (even when he went a set down) was that he is playing in his homeland, France. Looking at the form guide, Monfils entered the Bordeaux Challenger event earlier this month (which he won), then played at ATP Nice where he lost in the final. By doing this, Monfils got a lot of wins under his belt and was very much well rehearsed on clay. He dumped Berdych out of the French Open in the qualifier, one of the worlds best players and easily a semi final contender. The French crowds are loving Monfils and what he brings to the court. There was not one second where I doubted he'd win that match.
Another example I can think of is Andy Murray in Miami this year. I believe Murray has his own place in Miami, and that a lot of his family, his partner, and even his pets were down with him in Florida! Throughout the tournament he spoke of how happy he was at the time and morale was evidently very high. Murray won the tournament. This is all part of knowing your players.
5) Further to the form guide, look at their previous match/matches. Did they play yesterday? Did they go to 5 sets and play 25 games in the 5th set? Has the player just jetted halfway across the world to get to the tournament, having finished another only a day or two before? These things are important to consider.
An extreme example of this would be Wimbledon 2010, where the longest game of tennis ever occurred. Mahut and Isner. The final set ended 68-70 to Isner I think and needless to say, he was completely drained. When he took to the court for next game the following day, he lost in straight sets in only 72 minutes. Like I said, an extreme example, but you should bare in mind the condition that the player is likely to be in. This is sometimes difficult to tell, but you can normally hazard a guess.
6) Their world ranking. Fairly self explanatory, but looking into a players world ranking, and recent shifts are very much worth your time. If you can spot a player climbing the top 100, and lets say they're playing against one drifting, then you'd be very much in the right frame of mind to back the climber. For world rankings, consult the relevant tour websites.
This is all I can really think of at the moment. I appreciate this is probably a lot of information to digest and if you have any questions or anything to add, please feel obliged. I've barely even scratched the surface of placing tennis bets in play, but I can talk about that another time.
I may think of more things but these are the main things I consider every time I place a bet.
I can imagine you're thinking 'where on earth does one get this information from?'. Well fear not, flashscore.com is your friend, also tennisexplorer.com is a handy tool, but I've not really checked that out much, I only discovered it today. The ATP and WTA, as well as any relevant, official Challenger and ITF websites are also very useful with regards to information such as rankings and they also have player bios etc.
It's not all about information, though. You need to watch and study the game. I've been really getting into tennis over the past 12 months and I make sure I watch a lot of it. Today I watched the French Open from 10 until the last match finished. Easily 8 hours or so of matches. If you're in the UK, ITV channels and Eurosport are showing games.
Good luck.