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US Election 2020: Super Tuesday

So Super Tuesday is upon us. We've seen the Democratic nominees jostling for first place, but Bernie Sanders in recent weeks as emerged as the clear frontrunner. We should have a clearer picture of whom will be the Democratic nominee taking on Donald Trump after tonight.

A quick primer for Super Tuesday and what it is can be found here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51581001

Essentially, like all other US states, candidates will be vying for each states 'delegates'. Whichever candidate has the most delegates will be the Democratic nominee come the November 2020 election. Currently, Bernie Sanders leads in delegates.

Super Tuesday is significant, as the BBC article puts succinctly: 'Up to now, only 155 delegates have been awarded in four states. On Super Tuesday, a massive 1,357 delegates will be distributed, and 14 states are voting. The two most populous, California and Texas, will take part'.

So really, today should be massive in seeing just who is leading the pack. Will Bernie continue his momentum towards the win, or will the several centrist candidates who have pulled out and endorsed Joe Biden have an impact?

Stick around for the results here.

Reply 1

Fullofsurprises

Tomorrow morning before most of the results emerge, but we should get some exit polls coming in from Vermont and Virginia around midnight UK - Texas after 1am and California after 3am.

Reply 2

Rakas21

My calls for tonight..

California - Likely Sanders

Colorado - Likely Sanders

Utah - Likely Bloomberg or Biden

Texas - Likely Biden

Oklahoma - Likely Biden

Arkansas - Likely Biden or Bloomberg

Tennessee - Likely Biden

Alabama - Safe Biden

Virginia - Safe Biden win

North Carolina - Safe Biden win

Minnesota - Likely Sanders

Maine - Likely Sanders or Bloomberg

Massachusetts - Toss Up - Too unclear to call - Any of the four could win

Vermont - Safe Sanders win

- Safe defined as 10%+

Reply 3

Connor27

Colorado - Likely Sanders

Utah - Lean Sanders (most of the democrat voters in the state are in college towns)

Texas - Lean Biden (strong Bernie performance around Austin area with Bloomberg also getting delegates, but Sleepy Joe ultimately prevails)

Oklahoma - Lean Bloomberg

Arkansas - Likely Biden

Tennessee - Likely Biden

Alabama - Safe Biden

Virginia - Safe Biden win

North Carolina - Likely Biden win

Minnesota - Lean Biden following Klobuchar’s endorsement

Maine - Likely Sanders

Massachusetts - Lean Warren (she should drop out truly if she can’t win her home state)

Vermont - Safe Sanders win

Reply 4

Rakas21

Virginia and Vermont have been called for Biden and Sanders respectively.

Reply 5

Rakas21

North Carolina has been called for Biden.

Reply 6

Rakas21

American Samoa has been called for Bloomberg.

Reply 7

Rakas21

Alabama has been called for Biden.

Reply 8

akragas

Original post by Rakas21

American Samoa has been called for Bloomberg.

That was worth spending $500 million. :biggrin:

Reply 9

DemocRATs

Just another tolerant Democrat

Reply 10

Napp

Original post by DemocRATs

Just another tolerant Democrat

It's a tweet, grow up.

Reply 11

Rakas21

It looks like my forecast was correct bar three as things stand.

Sanders won Utah.

Biden won Minnesota, Maine and Massachusetts.

The last three may be critical since these I believe we're Sanders states in 2016.

Reply 12

fallen_acorns

I can't imagine Sanders' is that fond of Warren right now..

Presuming that most warren voters support sanders, which would make sense given that they are ideologically very similar. With them in his camp, he wins texas, maine, massachusetts, Minnesota, and more.

Obviously you could say the same about Biden and bloomberg, but I think the difference there is that this is bloombergs first roll of the dice, he didn't know for sure how badly he would perform, and he has the cash to keep going no matter what. Warren on the other hand was already as good as gone, poor result after poor result and without the funds to keep going in the face of the results.

I wonder, if Biden wins, Warren will look back and think 'Maybe if I had dropped out just a bit earlier, the candidate that I actually agree mostly with, would have won'.

Reply 13

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

Yes, I was saying in your other thread that your forecasts were very solid.

The Dems still have some major problems ahead if this, as seems likely, now goes all the way to the Convention. Grassroots supporters will be furious if Superdelegates override the lead for Sanders and give it to Biden.