IB math IA HELP

im taking math AI HL. my math ia topic is probability in a courtroom. the thing im worried about is that there might not be enough math on my part, just analyzing how probabilities were used wrongly and how they should be used (stuff u can find on the internet bc all the cases are already solved). But I saw an IA about this and they got an 18... so idk what im supposed to do, is it a good topic, does it have enough math for HL or should I just not take the risk? I was thinking of taking the topic of modeling microwave popcorn.

If you haven't gotten too far into it yet, then I would suggest switching to the modelling idea. I made the mistake of doing something on probabilities and ended up completely rewriting my whole project (tbf that could just be me). All the HL students at my school have done very simple things (and most are predicted 7s) but just considered multiple aspects of the problem, or systematically discussed how to refine their models. Since it's simple, modelling will get you points for clarity, and you can make the maths more complex if you need. Just my two cents