Hypothetical - The Second Korean War

In a move reminiscent of the tests in 2006, the DPRK has test-fired several ballistic missiles. Early reports indicated that this included at least 3 Taopodong-2 missiles, capable of reaching Alaska, and several of a different, previously unknown, type of long-distance missile. The missiles were fired from Musudan-ri Missile Test Facility. It has not yet been established how successful they were.

This follows the surprise retirement of Kim Jong-Il last week and the installation of Kim Jong-Un as new Chairman of the National Defence Commission of North Korea and de facto leader. This could possibly point towards a new rise in North Korean nationalism.

North Korea has a standing army of 1.3million men, with circa 70% stationed near the border with South Korea. While its military supplies are relatively obsolete, they are numerous, with double the numbers of tanks as the US-RoK forces near the DMZ. Despite this seemingly strong showing, the Navy is only brown-water, usually operating not much further than 50km away from the coast and the Air Force is primarily made up of 1,600 defensive planes from the Soviet-era. They also have a 3.5 million men Workers-Peasant Red Guard militia, poorly armed but dedicated to the defence of the DPRK.

South Korea, on the other hand, has 560,000 soldiers, 3000 tanks, 3000 armoured vehicles, 7000 artillery systems and 13000 Infantry Support Systems. In response to this move, the RoK Armed Forces have pushed forward the deployment of the Korean New Rifle, when fully deployed they will be significantly stronger combatants. Their Air Force has only 400 planes but of very modern design, easily the better of the DPRKs ancient planes. Again, it is trying to get hold of RQ-4 Global Hawk UAVs quicker, due to the latest developments. The navy has around 170 ships and aspirations to be blue-water by 2020. A very strong armed force, if small.

Japan, China, Russia and the US are the other major regional players. USFK (United States Forces Korea) has around 20,000 soldiers, 8,000 in the naval arm and several hundred in the air force and Marines. USFJ (United States Forces Japan) has a force of 2000 soldiers, 130 USAF fighters and around 15,000 marines. The Japan Self-Defence Forces have around 150,000 soldiers but though able to be deployed as UN peacekeepers, are prohibited from engaging in combat, except in self-defence. China has around 2.25million men, though poorly armed and trained. Russia has a force of around 350,000 men, but with superior Navy and Air Force than China.

The Office of the Secretary General believes these are strongly worrying signs from North Korea and urges them not to upset the fragile stability in the region.