The Student Room Group

Why is the Leave vote surging?

I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call

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I'm not too sure but if I was to guess....
1 Eddie Izzards pathetic performance on QT
2 Amber Rudds highly personal nasty attack on Boris
Both smacked of desperation and nastiness
Funny enough just the same way that video footage of all the black lives matters violence on innocent Trump supporters is boosting Trumps vote.
3 Andy Burnham, "Weve been too much Hampstead and not enough Hull." pretty spot on
4 Jezza telling the massed troops of Labour that "to be concerned about Immigration doesn't mean you are a racist" Sorry mate, too little too late For twenty years people have been trying to raise it and being called racist.
(edited 7 years ago)
I think it is because the vote is getting closer, so people who genuinely care are starting to read into the structure of the EU itself and its legislation.
Reply 3
Original post by generallee
I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call


I hope we leave
Reply 4
Original post by generallee
I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call


It is simply because David Cameron is a bell-end of proportions hitherto unknown to mankind. And he shagged a dead pig.

H
Reply 5
Yay, an Oxford friend! I do have to agree, I've noticed the same - 80%+ of the people around here are remainers. Out of the people I've spoken to and the posters I've seen, at least.
Reply 6
Original post by generallee
I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call


All of the recent TV debates.

Especially the Sky News one with Gove, he came across VERY well to pretty much everyone. Even teachers were impressed.
Reply 7
Remain threw everything at their electorate in the first few weeks of the campaign and just desensitised the public.
Leave, on the other hand, has let things build in a gradual crescendo.
Remain left their arguments in the air for too long and the hypocrisy etc has been picked out by the electorate, and they're losing favour.
Original post by generallee
I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call


This is an excellent analysis. If we do leave I feel that in a year or so there will be some very disillusioned leavers when we discover immigration just will not go down, we still have to implement law dictated from afar, that the concept of sovereignty doesn't really exist in a globalised market any more and that we end up being run by nutcases like Johnson, Gove and Redwood.
Original post by ByEeek
This is an excellent analysis. If we do leave I feel that in a year or so there will be some very disillusioned leavers when we discover immigration just will not go down, we still have to implement law dictated from afar, that the concept of sovereignty doesn't really exist in a globalised market any more and that we end up being run by nutcases like Johnson, Gove and Redwood.


It depends whether Cameron resigns or not. He has shown to be completely incapable of leading the country in a Brexit scenario, if he truly believes any of the things he has been telling us. His gameplan will be to do anything the EU asks of him in order to get some trade agreements in place. Real change will require a change of government and we can only hope a Brexit leads to a leadership challenge and general election.
Original post by generallee
I was walking around Oxford yesterday, (not a student there but visiting) and was struck by the number of Remain posters all over town.

In the Oxford bubble there is really only one way to vote. And the same is true in the environments most of you live in I suspect. Everyone is a Remainer, the Outers are the fruitcakes and swivel eyes loons. A minority.

So how do we explain the fact that according to the opinion polls, Leave are surging? It is counter intuitive based on personal experience. Of the people we know? How can it be?

I argue there are six major reasons we might leave.

1. Unsustainable levels of immigration. This is the biggest issue in the campaign and Remain have no intellectually coherent response to the fact that free movement of labour makes its uncontrollable.

2. This feeds into the Leave narrative that the UK has lost its sovereignty and can only reclaim it by leaving. If a country cannot control its own borders it isn't a country in a meaningful sense.

3. A complete lack of trust in the British elite. They say it will be an economic disaster if we leave. But are simply not believed. They are hated and despised. People want to kick them.

4. The democratic deficit in the EU itself and the fact that those in power are arrogant and deeply unpopular. They are hated and despised as well. People want to kick them too.

5. The Labour Party has lost its own core vote because of 1. above. The leadership thought it can tell its own voters what is best for them and they are ignoring it in droves. If we leave, Labour, which has had a terrible campaign, won't have delivered its vote and that will have been decisive..

6. A botched campaign by the Remain side in general. Cynical, scaremongering, negative, and led by the deeply unpopular (with everyone!) Cameron and Osborne.

It has treated the electorate as stupid, ignorant children. Lectured them. And its wild claims became so over the top they were incredible. World War Three if we leave the EU? Laughable.

We may stay in of course. There is a long way to go. But the above is why Leave is surging and it is now too close to call


I live in Oxford and yes it is a Europhile area but there are many leavers. I've been active in the campaign and when I've noticed most of these remain posters are Labour In not the official Stronger In campaign. Therefore just like the vocal Labour supporters they are not representative of the population at all. Also most of them live very cushiony lives as you said in the Oxford Bubble and don't realise the destruction the EU causes outside of their precious EU funded (actually British money but they don't understand that) University.
Original post by Alexion
Yay, an Oxford friend! I do have to agree, I've noticed the same - 80%+ of the people around here are remainers. Out of the people I've spoken to and the posters I've seen, at least.


No not 80%+ that's ridiculous, no area in the country has near that level of support either way. Maybe 2/3. Be realistic.
Original post by ByEeek
This is an excellent analysis. If we do leave I feel that in a year or so there will be some very disillusioned leavers when we discover immigration just will not go down, we still have to implement law dictated from afar, that the concept of sovereignty doesn't really exist in a globalised market any more and that we end up being run by nutcases like Johnson, Gove and Redwood.


This is the thing, I feel like either way I won't be happy down the line, it'll be 'what if' no matter what. The good news is, if we leave and go badly then people are going to hate Gove even more, so we'll have less chance of him running the country! :smile:

Honestly I'm 50/50 which way I'm going to vote atm though. I love Europe and European integration, I live in London and it warms my heart to hear 20 different langauges every day. But the Remain campaign just annoys me so much, it's always "if we leave Europe" (we aren't moving Great Britain across the ocean, GB will always be part of Europe), and other thinly veiled pieces of propaganda (leave is guilty of this too but seems less patronising). The worst is how they paint the Leave campaign..if you believe them, its only racists, bigots and people who don't understand economics who want to leave the EU. They treat you like an idiot if you even consider it, and honestly that makes me want to leave the EU just as a big middle finger to all the condescending Remain campaigners.

So aside from that (somewhat childish) reason for wanting to leave, I want the absolute best for the UK and for Europe. I think we'd be absolutely fine if we left, honestly. We're a strong country, we've bounced back from worse than leaving the EU (wwii comes to mind). It'd be nice to feel like we aren't ruled remotely be people we didn't elect. I don't like the EU's political orientation and want nothing to do with that, they currently have an optional holocaust denial law where member states can punish people with up to 3 years in prison for holocaust denial. Thankfully the UK government cares more about our rights than to implement that, but what about if they make that compulsory and hit us with fines for not complying with it?

So my vote will be balancing my love of Europe and its people vs my love of freedom and sovereignty + how annoyed I am with the Remain campaign on 23rd June.
(edited 7 years ago)
In my area there seems to be a lot more support for leave, I haven't spoken to many people about it but certainly the majority of posters in windows are Vote Leave and the majority of campaigners I see around are from Vote Leave as well.
Original post by Sephiroth
Real change will require a change of government and we can only hope a Brexit leads to a leadership challenge and general election.


Politicians not in power have been promising "Change" since the beginning of time. They then get into power on a mandate for change and discover that it isn't quite as simple as when they dreamed up their ideas in the pub on the back of an envelope.

Either that or the change imposed was so destructive that by the time the change was implemented no one was any better off.
Original post by Wahrheit
This is the thing, I feel like either way I won't be happy down the line, it'll be 'what if' no matter what. The good news is, if we leave and go badly then people are going to hate Gove even more, so we'll have less chance of him running the country! :smile:


You are absolutely right. This referendum isn't really about the country. It is about divisions in the Conservative party and we will pay the price. If you ask most people what their top issues are, Europe doesn't even come into the top 5. The economy, job security, the NHS, education etc are much more pressing issues. Yet we are being asked to make a decision that most don't really care about, which is fiercely complex and where the outcome could have severe consequences for years to come.

It is genuinely scary stuff, especially when so many people will be voting with their hearts (which includes prejudice and this "sticking one to the other lot" attitude) and not their heads.
The Remain campaign has been abysmal and has been based on treating the public like idiots. Not that the Leave campaign has been much better, mind.

I have actually been impressed with the Labour Leave campaign - set up and run by the few remaining Labourites who don't despise the British working class. The fact that the EU is awful for the workers doesn't really affect my plan to vote for remain as the upside is good for big business but anybody who claims to represent the workers would be out of their mind to want to be in the EU. How does setting up the severe undercutting of their wages help the workers? It's insane, which is why the main Remain campaign has been utterly crap and why whenever you ask most Remainers about the whole issue, they neary always come out with nothing but nonsense. Like Eddie Izzard for example.
Original post by ByEeek
You are absolutely right. This referendum isn't really about the country. It is about divisions in the Conservative party and we will pay the price. If you ask most people what their top issues are, Europe doesn't even come into the top 5. The economy, job security, the NHS, education etc are much more pressing issues. Yet we are being asked to make a decision that most don't really care about, which is fiercely complex and where the outcome could have severe consequences for years to come.

It is genuinely scary stuff, especially when so many people will be voting with their hearts (which includes prejudice and this "sticking one to the other lot" attitude) and not their heads.


Yeah totally, this is why I think the referendum was a bad idea, as they usually are. The public just don't know, or (as you say) even care, enough about the issues. Despite being more educated than most, I still don't have the capability to make a good decision on how to vote, and will almost certainly have to resort to gut feeling.
Original post by Sebastian Bartlett
No not 80%+ that's ridiculous, no area in the country has near that level of support either way. Maybe 2/3. Be realistic.


I reiterate

Out of the people I've spoken to and the posters I've seen, at least.
Original post by Alexion
I reiterate

Out of the people I've spoken to and the posters I've seen, at least.


May want to reassess your grammar.

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