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    (Original post by Alex from almanis)
    The Almanis prediction market seems to broadly agree that the UK will stay at this stage with the market projecting an 88% chance that the remain vote wins: http://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/214 Having said that, the average prediction over the last week or so is around 75%, which suggests that this is not a foregone conclusion and there is a reasonable chance that the vote could be close.
    If you guys disagree with that percentage make a prediction on it and you become eligible for prizes!
    The vote will be close leave will get at least 40% that's for sure.


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    (Original post by Omen96)
    I'm absolutely certain we will vote in and in my eyes that is not the purpose of the referendum. It's the aftermath I am interested in. The idea UKIP will die has no validity considering the SNP never died. Euroscepticism won't suddenly disappear. Decades and years of hatred will not cease to exist. We will accept the verdict but that doesn't mean politics hasnt changed. I for one feel betrayed by the establishment, by Cameron, Corbyn, Clegg, Sturgeon, all of them. I can speak for every other Eurosceptic I know as well. Do you really think I would ever in my life vote for either of these mainstream parties ever again after feeling betrayed. Had Corbyn stayed firm against the EU I would have voted for him, the same goes to Cameron, but no they didn't. This applies to many people like me. My vote will now always go to UKIP and I don't care if UKIP are bad or good.

    You need to realise there is a huge distaste for lib/lab/con, seeing them stand as one (only the other day Cameron, Ashdown and Kinnock campaigned together) will not be forgotten. 2020 will be a very interesting election. Yes, the referendum will be won by the IN campaign but in the long term, they have damaged themselves. I don't know anyone who plans to vote for the mainstream parties whatever the result is in the referendum. Betrayal goes skin deep.
    UKIP will get more support after a remain vote but only enough for a few more seats it will take getting more than 20% nationally to get more than that.

    Also it should be remembered it will be 4 years until the GE so lots of time for forgetting.


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    (Original post by Frank Underwood)
    2 months early, and I'm calling it.

    Not because its the right decision, although I do support staying in the EU, but the simple fact that Cameron, Clegg, Miliband, Sturgeon and Corbyn are all in and the only people supporting out are buffoons like Farage, Johnson and IDS who resigned means that those loyal to labour and tories will generally vote in. There will be some defectors either side who are angry at either party for whatever reason.
    well maybe not as may people re changing allegiances my nan is now 85 she voted labour up to 2010 then changed to ukip but with the panama paper pressure heating up and the public liking Boris is could go out and end Cameron's entire career if we did leave as the current scandal isn't helping his campaign and when a last looked the leave side was ahead by a slight margin but there's 9 weeks to go and that is when we will find out for sure
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    Most probably we're staying in, but I don't think labelling those who want to leave as all being 'buffoons' is going to win any undecideds over. The fact that Vote Leave is the official campaign for Brexit should mean that we'll be seeing less Farage/Galloway and more 'reasonable' Brexiteers take the limelight.

    As for what an in vote (or for that matter an out vote) means for UKIP, I really couldn't say. I certainly hope that their prospects are bleak, but what one wants and what the reality is obviously can't always be the same. That being said, I don't think a large enough chunk of people when actually voting are as upset with 'the status quo' as some angry people on the internet are, at least to me certainly not to the extent that UKIP will be getting many more MPs come 2020. There are too many unknowns to make a reasonable prediction either way, though - all I can say is that UKIP have been falling away in terms of vote %s in local by-elections since May 2015, though.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    UKIP will get more support after a remain vote but only enough for a few more seats it will take getting more than 20% nationally to get more than that.

    Also it should be remembered it will be 4 years until the GE so lots of time for forgetting.


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    Lots of time for the EU to mess up, the Eurozone to collapse, the migrant crisis to worsen, I pray no terror attacks but most likely will happen. 4 years will only fuel euroscepticism. To think the EU was barely debated in 2010 and now is number 1 topic, it takes time for the problem to resonate with more and more people. Then there's the impacts of TTIP which will annoy a lot as it phases in. The future in the EU looks very bleak, there is no bright future to look forward to.

    Oh I forgot, full membership of turkey and god knows what other countries.
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    (Original post by Omen96)
    Lots of time for the EU to mess up, the Eurozone to collapse, the migrant crisis to worsen, I pray no terror attacks but most likely will happen. 4 years will only fuel euroscepticism. To think the EU was barely debated in 2010 and now is number 1 topic, it takes time for the problem to resonate with more and more people. Then there's the impacts of TTIP which will annoy a lot as it phases in. The future in the EU looks very bleak, there is no bright future to look forward to.

    Oh I forgot, full membership of turkey and god knows what other countries.
    Ukraine and Bosnia too.

    None of the three will be agreed by 2020 though.

    I agree there are lots of problems to come with the eu in the coming 4 years I just don't agree that ukip will pass a 20% mark in the 2020 GE.

    There isn't much to come from the lib dems, labour depends on its leadership and the conservatives will have little to move without defections


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    (Original post by Frank Underwood)
    2 months early, and I'm calling it.

    Not because its the right decision, although I do support staying in the EU, but the simple fact that Cameron, Clegg, Miliband, Sturgeon and Corbyn are all in and the only people supporting out are buffoons like Farage, Johnson and IDS who resigned means that those loyal to labour and tories will generally vote in. There will be some defectors either side who are angry at either party for whatever reason.
 
 
 
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