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Is World War III a possibility in the near future? watch

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    TSR,

    The ever insightful magazine The Atlantic published this article suggesting that, due to the current international crisis in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, World War III is far more likely than most people are willing to believe. What do you think? Are we on the verge of a global cataclysm? I would love to hear your opinions.
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    Yeah. Starting 2015 :yy:

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    (Original post by HokeyWolf)
    TSR,

    The ever insightful magazine The Atlantic published this article suggesting that, due to the current international crisis in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, World War III is far more likely than most people are willing to believe. What do you think? Are we on the verge of a global cataclysm? I would love to hear your opinions.
    WW3 will probably be started over water or food or oil or something. It will be a revolution by people from poor nations desperately trying to access rich nations.

    I doubt it will be in the style that the world wars were fought in the early 20th Century. People don't give a **** about Britain any more, no one cares about nationalism and most of the population just want to drink in the pub in the evenings. I doubt anyone has a fighting spirit.
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    (Original post by HokeyWolf)
    TSR,

    The ever insightful magazine The Atlantic published this article suggesting that, due to the current international crisis in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, World War III is far more likely than most people are willing to believe. What do you think? Are we on the verge of a global cataclysm? I would love to hear your opinions.
    Considering America is sending 'military advisers' to Ukraine (I.E. Russia's back yard), yes I would suggest that the risk of WWIII is closer than it has been for a while.

    Hopefully wisdom, common sense and cooler heads prevail before that comes to pass though.
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    No.
    Everybody has too much to lose and too little to gain, there is essentially no point to it.

    Deployments of tiny numbers of military staff is utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

    There's always a crisis in the Middle East and usually a crisis somewhere else in the world too, none of the others have been the harbingers of doom. Hell, not too long ago we were actively involved in two concurrent warzones. No-one was talking about how that was the beginning of WW3.

    All this conjecture - and this is at least the 4th thread on the topic in a week - just makes it sound like the people here want a war.
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    There are always people talking about World War III, I'm sure I hear this argument every year. A few years ago it was because the Mayans predicted the world would end. There was hype in 1999 that there was going to be a world war during the Kosovo conflict because Serbia is a traditional ally of Europe and the Russian President at the time was a drunken Yeltsin who said "don't push your luck" to the West and it was inferred as a veiled threat (tbf it was probably more dangerous having his finger on the Russian nuclear button than it is Putins).

    The world does have its dangers and there are risks of very damaging regional wars, but by World War people generally mean the big powers lining up on different sides, ie something like Russia or China fighting America and Britain, which is not going to happen.

    However Drewski maybe you should be promoting this hype because otherwise when the next Spending Review happens we will end up deciding that the world has moved on and conventional armed forces are becoming obsolete so they can absorb more efficiency savings.
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    (Original post by HokeyWolf)
    TSR,

    The ever insightful magazine The Atlantic published this article suggesting that, due to the current international crisis in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, World War III is far more likely than most people are willing to believe. What do you think? Are we on the verge of a global cataclysm? I would love to hear your opinions.
    Please ignore testing testing 123
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    No chance, although I would say this.

    Thank god Putin is a rich man with a lot to lose.
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    (Original post by HokeyWolf)
    TSR,

    The ever insightful magazine The Atlantic published this article suggesting that, due to the current international crisis in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, World War III is far more likely than most people are willing to believe. What do you think? Are we on the verge of a global cataclysm? I would love to hear your opinions.
    Who exactly is going to be taking part in this World War?

    Middle Eastern Arabs: Dicks. Everyone hates them. They hate each other. Couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
    Israel: Dicks. Everyone hates them. Can fight, but liable to run out of people before everyone else.
    Middle Eastern Iranians: Dicks. Everyone hates them. Can't fight either. Need to use paramilitaries to do their fighting - hence, can't really go to war.
    US/NATO: War is too expensive, and public has no appetite for casualties - chances of partaking in conventional war = very low. Most NATO armies (including the US) are a fraction of their Cold War size. The British Army could just about occupy a Ukranian Community Centre at the moment - although we'd do it really, really well.
    Russia: Dicks. Everyone hates them. History showed that even when the full resources of the USSR were diverted into warfare, they couldn't sustain it for more than a couple of days.
    China: Can't fight. Have never been able to fight. Don't need to fight. Why invade a country when you can buy it?
    North Korea: Dicks. Everyone hates them. Could start a war, but have no capacity to do much more than start local trouble for a few months before they run out of everything.
    India / Pakistan: Hate each other. Can't fight. No-one gives enough of a toss about them to jump in on their side.
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    Only if you allow your governments to push you into more bloodshed. Russia's not been an aggressor I think the West have because earlier yet they funded billions to overthrow Ukraine's leader.
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    More than pre-2008, still unlikely.
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    It's an interesting topic, thanks for raising it OP.

    If I'd been asked this a year ago, I would have said "no chance". Now, I have my concerns.

    Russia - the rhetoric is growing. Putin is now breaking international arms control treaties agreed by the Soviet Union. He appears to have decided (rather crazily) to become a full time enemy of the West, with his media channels pumping out anti-West hate 24/7 and constantly increasing military budgets. Russia's actions in the Ukraine indicate a contempt for international law on the part of the Russian government and a gangster approach. In addition, their obsession with the alleged 'defense of Russian citizens abroad' has Hitlerite overtones and is clearly part of a nationalist aggressive posture. Russia remains a significant nuclear power and appears to have a partially deranged leadership. Lavrov simply repeats lies endlessly, like a sort of weird modernised version of Gromyko.

    North Korea - now apparently testing a genuine ICBM. No matter how extreme or insane the acts of this cross between a lunatic asylum and a Nazi death camp, China (troublingly) continues to defend them to the hilt.

    China - appears anxious now to start a war with one or more neighbours, including Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Is constantly provoking Japan, which is responding with a new surge of militarism. Is engaged in new rounds of security crackdown and paranoia at home and aggression abroad. Massive increases in military spending.

    Middle East - getting more and more out of control. Although the media keep trying to draw attention to it, largely without success, the reality of what is happening in Syria, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Egypt, Afghanistan and N. Africa is deeply troubling. The level of conflict is steadily intensifying and its capacity to draw in other powers seems to be present. In particular, it is worrying how rapidly Iraq has collapsed and I think we will see the same in Afghanistan when the US withdraws - the Taliban will quickly take over again. This is all destabilising.

    Of course, a lot of the above is caused by the global economic downturn - most governments have resorted to nationalism and attacking foreigners as a way to control discontent at home. The UK has been no different, with a lurch to xenophobia and constant anti-European and anti-immigrant rhetoric from the government. The only real issue though is to what extent any of this will follow through into war.

    I am most worried by the China/Japan and Russia/West situations. I think North Korea could be a flashpoint, but so could the incredibly stupid and fabricated dispute over the Senkakku islands. These really belong to Japan more than to China, but the Chinese government is obviously determined to use them as a pretext to create tension. At the moment, they haven't gone all the way, but the fact that Japan, heavily supported by the US, is rapidly increasing its military posture in response is far from comforting.
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    One thing under the radar is that Japan has amended its constitution allowing it to defend an ally under attack. As a betting man, I'd stake a good amount on the Japanese defense budget starting to rise further.

    While they won't start a world war its interesting to note that their technology is as if not more advanced than western Europe and that experts believe that they could assemble a top of the range ICBM and arm it within 90 days if they wish.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    However Drewski maybe you should be promoting this hype because otherwise when the next Spending Review happens we will end up deciding that the world has moved on and conventional armed forces are becoming obsolete so they can absorb more efficiency savings.
    :lol: Hadn't looked at it like that!

    But anyway, there doesn't need to be a threat of WW3 for the armed forces to warrant continued expenditure.

    (Original post by Rakas21)
    One thing under the radar is that Japan has amended its constitution allowing it to defend an ally under attack. As a betting man, I'd stake a good amount on the Japanese defense budget starting to rise further.

    While they won't start a world war its interesting to note that their technology is as if not more advanced than western Europe and that experts believe that they could assemble a top of the range ICBM and arm it within 90 days if they wish.
    It is worth noting two things on that though;
    1- the Japanese people are very anti that amendment, it brought about quite big protests and, while it remains on the books, would seem very unlikely to be ever enforced, and
    2- while the tech they have is ok, they have basically no experience in either fighting or conducting expeditions. Experience counts for a lot.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    It's an interesting topic, thanks for raising it OP.

    If I'd been asked this a year ago, I would have said "no chance". Now, I have my concerns.

    Russia - the rhetoric is growing. Putin is now breaking international arms control treaties agreed by the Soviet Union. He appears to have decided (rather crazily) to become a full time enemy of the West, with his media channels pumping out anti-West hate 24/7 and constantly increasing military budgets. Russia's actions in the Ukraine indicate a contempt for international law on the part of the Russian government and a gangster approach. In addition, their obsession with the alleged 'defense of Russian citizens abroad' has Hitlerite overtones and is clearly part of a nationalist aggressive posture. Russia remains a significant nuclear power and appears to have a partially deranged leadership. Lavrov simply repeats lies endlessly, like a sort of weird modernised version of Gromyko.

    North Korea - now apparently testing a genuine ICBM. No matter how extreme or insane the acts of this cross between a lunatic asylum and a Nazi death camp, China (troublingly) continues to defend them to the hilt.

    China - appears anxious now to start a war with one or more neighbours, including Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Is constantly provoking Japan, which is responding with a new surge of militarism. Is engaged in new rounds of security crackdown and paranoia at home and aggression abroad. Massive increases in military spending.

    Middle East - getting more and more out of control. Although the media keep trying to draw attention to it, largely without success, the reality of what is happening in Syria, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Egypt, Afghanistan and N. Africa is deeply troubling. The level of conflict is steadily intensifying and its capacity to draw in other powers seems to be present. In particular, it is worrying how rapidly Iraq has collapsed and I think we will see the same in Afghanistan when the US withdraws - the Taliban will quickly take over again. This is all destabilising.

    Of course, a lot of the above is caused by the global economic downturn - most governments have resorted to nationalism and attacking foreigners as a way to control discontent at home. The UK has been no different, with a lurch to xenophobia and constant anti-European and anti-immigrant rhetoric from the government. The only real issue though is to what extent any of this will follow through into war.

    I am most worried by the China/Japan and Russia/West situations. I think North Korea could be a flashpoint, but so could the incredibly stupid and fabricated dispute over the Senkakku islands. These really belong to Japan more than to China, but the Chinese government is obviously determined to use them as a pretext to create tension. At the moment, they haven't gone all the way, but the fact that Japan, heavily supported by the US, is rapidly increasing its military posture in response is far from comforting.
    I dont actually think that WW3 will start from the ME. Throughout history, people thought that major wars would start there - a lot of problems in the ME include:

    Foreign intervention
    Lack of unity ie: fighting amongst themselves
    Instable countries etc...

    If any country in the ME went to war (even with allies) theyd be decimated, pretty quickly
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    Don't care if there's another world war really. I wouldn't be fighting anyway. My degree is more important.

    If I left school with no qualifications, then I might be in the Army, but otherwise in the real world there are hierarchies in life because of this, and I am not as lowly as soldiers with nothing more than B TEC.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    One thing under the radar is that Japan has amended its constitution allowing it to defend an ally under attack. As a betting man, I'd stake a good amount on the Japanese defense budget starting to rise further.

    While they won't start a world war its interesting to note that their technology is as if not more advanced than western Europe and that experts believe that they could assemble a top of the range ICBM and arm it within 90 days if they wish.
    I'm sure Japan would be technically far ahead of China if they decide to push aggressively forwards with military expenditures.

    It's actually deplorable how much of the world's GDP is already devoted to military spending, let alone the dim prospect of that increasing still further - yet across most of Asia, that is what is happening.
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    (Original post by TheKingOfTSR)
    Yeah. Starting 2015 :yy:

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    Is it? I'm still waiting for the trailer ffs :/
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I'm sure Japan would be technically far ahead of China if they decide to push aggressively forwards with military expenditures.

    It's actually deplorable how much of the world's GDP is already devoted to military spending, let alone the dim prospect of that increasing still further - yet across most of Asia, that is what is happening.
    You should listen to Radio4's The Infinite Monkey Cage from the 21st of this month.

    Nobody likes war (except Star Wars, but only the original episodes...), but you can't help but acknowledge the leaps in science and knowledge that come from it. Without military spending there'd be no space exploration, medicine would be at least 50 years behind where it is right now, we wouldn't be having this discussion on the internet, the UK wouldn't have had search and rescue for the last 60 years... Military spending does a lot of good. It's war that does bad. Don't need to conflate the two.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I'm sure Japan would be technically far ahead of China if they decide to push aggressively forwards with military expenditures.

    It's actually deplorable how much of the world's GDP is already devoted to military spending, let alone the dim prospect of that increasing still further - yet across most of Asia, that is what is happening.
    We are a divided species, until the west unites with the east (the main 4 powers anyway of US, EU if it politically unifies, India and China) there will be no stability. Granted I really don't like or trust Russia.
 
 
 
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