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Reply 40
Original post by pereira325
All you are doing in betting is using statistical analysis and your own judgement. Anyone can do that, the only thing is how well based on their experience or system. Football betting is essentially like buying and selling stocks, except, to me is slightly more risky-i trust the companies rather than football clubs hehe (although investors of football clubs do have stakes in to not risk themselves losing out)



Ok there's a couple of points to be made from your post.

You say "all" you are doing is using statistical analysis and your own judgement as if there is nothing to it.

Yet 97% of bettors fail to make any profit!

Statistics are very very hard to use profitably in sports betting because most stats are meaningless and those that aren't have usually been accounted for in the prices.

Also your post ignores the point I tried to get across to the OP that even if you have discovered an edge of sorts you still have to deal with the immense psychological problems that occur when you have losing runs.

It's almost impossible for anyone to make a living betting on football because of this.

(Trading is quite another matter but even that has become much harder than it was a few years ago.)

Unless they bet on long term markets that is, which they don't.
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 41
Original post by Lester Diamond
I believe the last bit of that to be very true, I think most lads on a Sat eve love to tell everyone in the pub Sat night that "Spurs or Everton let me down for £1200" etc It's like the next day hangover, same principle. "Oh I'm dying, someone bring me food" basically it boils down to attention seeking.

Moggis, you say you're one of the best, is your market mainly WDW or goals? A stat I look at is previous result and the bounce back factor after a loss, I'm convinced Arsenal will win well tomorrow night after the West Brom result and the poor result away in Euro last, you agree?


Hmmm. You know I think that s not really it.

It's not attention seeking per se.

I believe the main reason men bet on football is to try to prove either that they know a lot about football or that they are smart.Or both.


As for your question I don't actually bet on 90 minute markets as I think it's way too hard to make a significant profit for the reasons I have tried to explain on this thread.

I bet on long term markets.

Long term markets are FAR easier to beat than short term markets and that's why I'm ' one of the best' as you quote.

I'm only able to be one of the best because almost all other bettors insist on competing against each other on 90 minute markets!

When I finally get competition I may well find I'm not nearly so good. In the meantime,believe it or not,I'm having a serious attempt at making £1 million this season in order to show that I'm right about long term markets.

Last season I missed out on such an amount by 3 points.


As for the Arsenal question well of course Arsenal are class and so a surprise defeat shouldn't have any discernible affect but regardless you are probably right not to overreact to short term results in general.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by moggis
Ok there's a couple of points to be made from your post.

You say "all" you are doing is using statistical analysis and your own judgement as if there is nothing to it.

Yet 97% of bettors fail to make any profit!

Statistics are very very hard to use profitably in sports betting because most stats are meaningless and those that aren't have usually been accounted for in the prices.

Also your post ignores the point I tried to get across to the OP that even if you have discovered an edge of sorts you still have to deal with the immense psychological problems that occur when you have losing runs.

It's almost impossible for anyone to make a living betting on football because of this.

(Trading is quite another matter but even that has become much harder than it was a few years ago.)

Unless they bet on long term markets that is, which they don't.


When arguing with me, you need good logic to convince me of your opinion.
Yeah, that is all you are doing. What else can you do?
Who said 97% of betters fail to make a profit? Saying an outrageous statistic like that needs hard evidence.
"most stats are meaningless"? - I don't agree. Every stat has a impact on the final outcome, however small its impact you can't ignore its impact just because you're lazy or want to.
How big a losing run are you talking about? If you are serious about any sort of trading, you a) have cash reserved so you never go truly bankrupt and b) have your cash spread. Say you make 3 bad bets, and they all go kaput, you are badly done. If you have 10 and 3 go wrong, you're still laughing. All depends on the odds you receive.
Are you a better? (I remember some guy in this thread said he was)
To me your mentality is pretty lame, less of a realist and more of a pessimist.
And, you don't only make money via long term markets... short term do as well, it's all about the trend, and hey, a bit of luck.
It is all about the number of people doing a thing that effects profitability, but I don't understand your point of how more people betting affects the odds? Unless they start winning (which according to you they don't) then the bookies don't care. You might be taking money from them, but they still net profit.
Okay it probably is you who is the better.
I don't even truly know how smart or good at this game you are, but from what I see, it seems like you aren't so much (why else would you be here... making £1m in a season, bs much?)
Reply 43
Original post by pereira325
When arguing with me, you need good logic to convince me of your opinion.
Yeah, that is all you are doing. What else can you do?
Who said 97% of betters fail to make a profit? Saying an outrageous statistic like that needs hard evidence.
"most stats are meaningless"? - I don't agree. Every stat has a impact on the final outcome, however small its impact you can't ignore its impact just because you're lazy or want to.
How big a losing run are you talking about? If you are serious about any sort of trading, you a) have cash reserved so you never go truly bankrupt and b) have your cash spread. Say you make 3 bad bets, and they all go kaput, you are badly done. If you have 10 and 3 go wrong, you're still laughing. All depends on the odds you receive.
Are you a better? (I remember some guy in this thread said he was)
To me your mentality is pretty lame, less of a realist and more of a pessimist.
And, you don't only make money via long term markets... short term do as well, it's all about the trend, and hey, a bit of luck.
It is all about the number of people doing a thing that effects profitability, but I don't understand your point of how more people betting affects the odds? Unless they start winning (which according to you they don't) then the bookies don't care. You might be taking money from them, but they still net profit.
Okay it probably is you who is the better.
I don't even truly know how smart or good at this game you are, but from what I see, it seems like you aren't so much (why else would you be here... making £1m in a season, bs much?)




WOW .This post has made my week!

Far too much here for me to go into now and I'd like to take a while to consider any reply anyway.

However I will answer the question as to why I'm here.


Ok. Originally I came onto this site for one reason and one reason only.

Every single time I read about betting on the Internet - whether on forums or on dedicated 'how to' sites,the information I read .........

........was counter to my own direct experience over many years!!

SO I wanted to find intelligent people in order to ask them a specific question.

I will repeat the question I asked.


" How much money do I need to win doing what I do before I will have amassed sufficient evidence to show that almost everything I read on the Internet pertaining to betting on football is either wrong or very misleading?"


Since no one answered my question and since almost no one on any gambling forum takes anything I say seriously ( or if they do they are belligerent) I have taken it upon myself to try to make £1 million in a season as I believe this would go a very long way to making me right.

And if I'm right I will then be in a position to help people.


As for your accusation of possible bs on my part, I most certainly have the proof that I came within 3 points of making £1 million profit last season.

The company was Ladbrokes and the bets in question were placed in September and the team that let me down was Burnley.

In fact if I had bet them merely to be relegated instead of to be bottom I would have made an overall profit of £700,000 last season.


In fact last season I beat my personal record of £221,000 by winning £257,000 from another bookie from one bet .



Cheers



Edit As to why I'm still here,why,this site is very entertaining.What can I say?
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by musicola
..me?

I dont work and make money sports gambling. Ive made a system myself and am raking in the cash.

Of course form is temporary and i will need to keep on top as teams fortunes change etc..but with my system the form has been consistent for years so my system should not fail any time soon. Wont go into details and give away my secret but the type of bets i am making are bets based on results that have won consistently since begging of football history really, so it should never fail.

But how do i plan my life? I will sign of job seekers i guess and never need to look for or do work. But then people ask why i have money and things but never work it seems dodgy?

But I dont want to share i win money gambling as people will think (well most think i got lucky and will go bust i guess) but people will want to know what i do and how i win it...and if bookies find out that i win all the time they will stop me betting? If I share with others then bookies will catch on.

So I need to keep it private?

But then so many questions why i never have job but always money?

I stay with parents atm as i was broke after uni but now I predict in year or 2 with savings or so i will buy nice house.

Will the house sellers question where i have money from as i pay in cash (no mortgage) and have no work history? I can share i win money from gambling?

I dont see how i can maintain this winning system without the bookies putting an end to it?

I try vary my bets with 10 different bookies online so they will not notice or care about my consistent wins...

so i have 2 problems.

1. Bookies stopping me betting
2. People being nosey about my life- no job but lots of money...


Firstly you are not beating the bookies for any significant cash because:

- They limit shrewd bettors
- Before banning shrewd bettors

Seeing as you are talking about will Hills, it seems clear you are a fish on a heater

Secondly you cannot claim JSA if you a certain amount of money, I cannot remember how much it is.

Hope this helps -
[QUOTE=musicola;54989261
Basically I can sit in my house and place bets once per week or twice if enough midweek games, spending 30-60mins really to do it all....and rest of my time is mines...




maybe 1-2 hrs per week at most...not even that..just check fixtures, pick best selections, make bet...I have spreadsheet to maintain teams/fixture dates so its not take long at all...


LOL
How much have you made?

Keep at it if you're good at it.
Original post by moggis
WOW .This post has made my week!

Far too much here for me to go into now and I'd like to take a while to consider any reply anyway.

However I will answer the question as to why I'm here.


Ok. Originally I came onto this site for one reason and one reason only.

Every single time I read about betting on the Internet - whether on forums or on dedicated 'how to' sites,the information I read .........

........was counter to my own direct experience over many years!!

SO I wanted to find intelligent people in order to ask them a specific question.

I will repeat the question I asked.


" How much money do I need to win doing what I do before I will have amassed sufficient evidence to show that almost everything I read on the Internet pertaining to betting on football is either wrong or very misleading?"


Since no one answered my question and since almost no one on any gambling forum takes anything I say seriously ( or if they do they are belligerent) I have taken it upon myself to try to make £1 million in a season as I believe this would go a very long way to making me right.

And if I'm right I will then be in a position to help people.


As for your accusation of possible bs on my part, I most certainly have the proof that I came within 3 points of making £1 million profit last season.

The company was Ladbrokes and the bets in question were placed in September and the team that let me down was Burnley.

In fact if I had bet them merely to be relegated instead of to be bottom I would have made an overall profit of £700,000 last season.


In fact last season I beat my personal record of £221,000 by winning £257,000 from another bookie from one bet .



Cheers



Edit As to why I'm still here,why,this site is very entertaining.What can I say?


How long have you been gambling for?

How much are you up or down overall? what do you do with the rest of your time?
Original post by Robertertrench1
I am 44 and single and I have been gambling on the horses for 23 years but try as I might I only ever make about £70,000 a year on betting and I have been doing it for over 20 ywaers now and I feel thoroughly pissed off, I should have gone toi Uni and gone into banking or something, the problem is that I dont have any A-Levels, O-Levels Or G.C.S.E's.

I have only ever told one friend how I make money and I showed him my system in great detail and it is simplicity itself, it takes me 30 minutes a day and I can do it from almost anywhere in the world with an Internet connection, the one person I did tell, instead of copying me, he just kept borrowing money off me instead so I never tell anyone now, I have heard from some of my friends that people assume I am a very clever drug dealer (Lol)

My advice is not to get into professional gambling, it might pay the bills but I think it would be better to get a good degree and go into the City or something and earn some really decent money instead and then you have friends that you can talk to about moneymaking.

I was happier when I was 16 to 21 and just did a series of dead end Jobs and my only goal in life was to get Drunk at the weekend, now I live a very boring life indeed, No drinking, No fast driving and I cant be bothered to go abroad on holiday anymore as I have been to most countries that I have ever thought about going to, now I am just bored and thinking of retiring, I only spend about £200 a week on myself, the only benefit is that I dont have the taxman to worry about, in 20 years I have been investigated twice, It's very difficult to convince the Taxman that all of my Income is Taxfree, when I first got investigated I offered to proof my Bets in advance to him, but he turned me down so I had to hire a Solicitor and had witness statements taken and proofed Bets by sending them in postmarked envelopes to my Solicitors office, Now I use Betfair and Betdaq so it is easier to prove.

Sometimes I do tell strangers what I do for a living, most dont believe me, some ask me for money, which I sometimes give, one person who I showed my Betfair account to got really angry and hit me and accused me of being a thieving liar, my advice is not to go into professional gambling as it is hard to make friends. I wish I had gone to Uni, got a Job and had friends

Robert.


Not everyone makes a fortune in the city, you're not missing out lol.
Original post by moggis
Hmmm. You know I think that s not really it.

It's not attention seeking per se.

I believe the main reason men bet on football is to try to prove either that they know a lot about football or that they are smart.Or both.


As for your question I don't actually bet on 90 minute markets as I think it's way too hard to make a significant profit for the reasons I have tried to explain on this thread.

I bet on long term markets.

Long term markets are FAR easier to beat than short term markets and that's why I'm ' one of the best' as you quote.

I'm only able to be one of the best because almost all other bettors insist on competing against each other on 90 minute markets!

When I finally get competition I may well find I'm not nearly so good. In the meantime,believe it or not,I'm having a serious attempt at making £1 million this season in order to show that I'm right about long term markets.

Last season I missed out on such an amount by 3 points.


As for the Arsenal question well of course Arsenal are class and so a surprise defeat shouldn't have any discernible affect but regardless you are probably right not to overreact to short term results in general.


Long term betting? So you're saying I should stick money on barca, Bayern, Celtic and Leicester to win the leagues?
Reply 50
Original post by Bill_Gates
How long have you been gambling for?

How much are you up or down overall? what do you do with the rest of your time?



I'm up less than £1 million but more than £500,000.

But crucially when I discovered that long term markets are the way to go I was penniless with no job prospects so unable to get money to bet with.

Had I had say £50,000 when I discovered this or better still had I been an accountant etc I'd be over a million up right now and probably £1,500,000.


I discovered this when I was living in a flat share above a betting shop on the dole and locked myself out on a snowy February afternoon in 1997.

I took shelter in the bookies and within 5 minutes I made a discovery that shocked me!

I had had no idea that you could bet each way on long term markets even in February.

I was able to double my 'wealth' year after year by taking advantage of the value inherent in the place part of long term markets but I didn't have any serious money to bet with until 2004/5 when I won £50,000 in the phone version of Who wants to be a Miliionaire!

(You had to answer 10 questions correctly faster than anyone else over a 2 month period.I wanted it so much that it hurt.)

But after 2010- edit,actually 2009- the value disappeared and what I do now is trickier.

It hasn't changed my life very much since I spent much of my time reading books before and I still do.edit Well actually I really appreciate finally having somewhere to put all my books!

However,I hope it's ok for me to point out that I'm supposed to be trying to write one of the greatest gambling books ever written! :smile:

Sadly however I'm not intelligent enough to do justice to the material :frown:


Hope this reply wasn't too long.
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 51
Original post by IamJacksContempt
Long term betting? So you're saying I should stick money on barca, Bayern, Celtic and Leicester to win the leagues?



Take Basle.

One of the easiest ways I know to make money is to bet them to win their league.

Year after year after year.And at reasonable odds to begin with and even after a few games.

But you can't win much just doing that without taking too much risk. I mean yes they win every year but you still wouldn't want to stick £80,000 on!

When I was betting each way the way to exploit the value in the places was to bet in accumulators.

I never thought that,when the day came that the place value disappeared, I could still make money.


But I was wrong.

And for a very interesting reason that is beyond the remit of this post / thread to explain.

Anyhow in order to exploit teams like Basle yet keep risk to a minimum you need to bet in multiples.edit so that your stakes are lower of course

Thats the simple explanation I'm sure you realise.


As for Leicester I have been betting them on Ladbrokes handicap market where they are now about 1-2 but interestingly I'd much rather another team wins it!Just so long as Leicester don't collapse when they finally start playing decent teams that is.
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by moggis
WOW .This post has made my week!

Far too much here for me to go into now and I'd like to take a while to consider any reply anyway.

However I will answer the question as to why I'm here.


Ok. Originally I came onto this site for one reason and one reason only.

Every single time I read about betting on the Internet - whether on forums or on dedicated 'how to' sites,the information I read .........

........was counter to my own direct experience over many years!!

SO I wanted to find intelligent people in order to ask them a specific question.

I will repeat the question I asked.


" How much money do I need to win doing what I do before I will have amassed sufficient evidence to show that almost everything I read on the Internet pertaining to betting on football is either wrong or very misleading?"


Since no one answered my question and since almost no one on any gambling forum takes anything I say seriously ( or if they do they are belligerent) I have taken it upon myself to try to make £1 million in a season as I believe this would go a very long way to making me right.

And if I'm right I will then be in a position to help people.


As for your accusation of possible bs on my part, I most certainly have the proof that I came within 3 points of making £1 million profit last season.

The company was Ladbrokes and the bets in question were placed in September and the team that let me down was Burnley.

In fact if I had bet them merely to be relegated instead of to be bottom I would have made an overall profit of £700,000 last season.


In fact last season I beat my personal record of £221,000 by winning £257,000 from another bookie from one bet .



Cheers



Edit As to why I'm still here,why,this site is very entertaining.What can I say?



Haha, I totally understand. I'm struggling to generate a suitable reply (past midnight!).
I would love to hear more about your experiences by being a football gambler. Like if you were ever up for doing a traineeship lol.
I'm quite interested in pursuing economics and yeah, price falls/rises in markets, understanding why things happen the way they do is where my curiosity lies.
I think most things can really be predicted with a very high accuracy, you just need to have the data, and be able to analyse it and interpret the results and then apply your cash in!
Maybe being tired has made me all sentimental and mellow, but we all do wish for your success.
IDK what you have said/evidence you provided for everything the internet suggesting about the internet being not true (would be interesting to see what your counter-evidence is). also idk what even is the "method" that most people use (haven't gambled ever)
I don't truly understand what you mean by coming 3 points short? Does that mean if the team you bet on gained 3 points more, they would have won a league or something, and thus the bookies would have increased your pay-out by whichever factor?
For some reason (I don't know why) I do take you seriously now. Wish you the best of success and if you have any general tips or something for a beginner in this whole "field" that you'd be willing to share, PM me:smile: thanks.
I do have an interest, just don't know where to start really :P
Reply 53
Original post by pereira325
Haha, I totally understand. I'm struggling to generate a suitable reply (past midnight!).
I would love to hear more about your experiences by being a football gambler. Like if you were ever up for doing a traineeship lol.
I'm quite interested in pursuing economics and yeah, price falls/rises in markets, understanding why things happen the way they do is where my curiosity lies.
I think most things can really be predicted with a very high accuracy, you just need to have the data, and be able to analyse it and interpret the results and then apply your cash in!
Maybe being tired has made me all sentimental and mellow, but we all do wish for your success.
IDK what you have said/evidence you provided for everything the internet suggesting about the internet being not true (would be interesting to see what your counter-evidence is). also idk what even is the "method" that most people use (haven't gambled ever)
I don't truly understand what you mean by coming 3 points short? Does that mean if the team you bet on gained 3 points more, they would have won a league or something, and thus the bookies would have increased your pay-out by whichever factor?
For some reason (I don't know why) I do take you seriously now. Wish you the best of success and if you have any general tips or something for a beginner in this whole "field" that you'd be willing to share, PM me:smile: thanks.
I do have an interest, just don't know where to start really :P


Ok fine.Thanks.


As ever I could write a great deal.

But just to deal with the Burnley thing. I needed them to be bottom of the Premiership but QPR were deservedly bottom and the gap between the two teams was 3 points. ( In fact Burnley had a better goal difference as well).

Also my aim is not really to encourage people to take up gambling.

Rather it is to point out that betting on 90 minute markets in football is not only too hard to make significant money from but is only going to get harder because of increased competition.

See the article called "Mugs and Millionaires" online.


But the good news is that betting on long term markets,for a few years anyway,is not only easier it's also a far more satisfying and entertaining way to bet on football.


As for evidence that everything I read ( on the Internet) about football betting isn't true or is misleading perhaps I can give you an example taken not from the Internet but from what is widely regarded as one of the best football betting books ever written?

The book in question is called ,from memory,

" Successful Soccer Betting" ( ha not much to remember but it might be Successful Football Betting)

By Geoff Harvey.

Now first of all I agree that this book,now out of print and very costly to buy, is indeed very good.

I own every soccer betting book there is and I mark anything that's( potentially) useful information and whereas most soccer betting books only have one or two things worth knowing this one has eight!!

But it's something he says early on in the book that I wish to draw your attention to.

But I will do that in a further post as I need coffee!
(edited 8 years ago)
"In fact last season I beat my personal record of £221,000 by winning £257,000 from another bookie from one bet."

One bet? Must have been some stake or some acca. What's your thoughts on the rolling challenge? Some do quite good at it. You could be staking £1200/£1500 on 1 goal etc but doesn't it increase the chance of making money in your favour instead of hoping a certain team wins in 90 min?
Reply 55
Original post by Lester Diamond
"In fact last season I beat my personal record of £221,000 by winning £257,000 from another bookie from one bet."

One bet? Must have been some stake or some acca. What's your thoughts on the rolling challenge? Some do quite good at it. You could be staking £1200/£1500 on 1 goal etc but doesn't it increase the chance of making money in your favour instead of hoping a certain team wins in 90 min?


Sorry,I don't know what the rolling challenge is. I will look it up when I get a chance.


Of course I do 100s of long term accumulator bets every year.The £257,000 was for a £100 stake and placed in December and the £221,000 was a £400 stake placed on January 1st.A few years back.

A couple of years ago I won £201,000 from Paddy Power for a £100 stake.


They are my 3 biggest amounts but I have high hopes of beating them this season.Indeed I will need to if I'm to make the magic million!
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 56
Ok.Re Geoff Harvey's book which is actually called Succesfull Football Betting.


It was published in 2002 but I didn't read it until 2006.

Early on,within the first 30 pages I think,he says that he only bets on markets with very low overrounds

He goes on to say that he would always avoid any market with 20 runners for this reason.

(Since the more runners there are the bigger the overround ie the bookies theoretical profit margin)

So,he is clearly stating that he would never bet on antepost football markets because they are unlikely to be profitable.


Imagine then my thoughts on reading this in 2006 ,9 years after I had discovered that the best way to bet on football was to bet (each way)accumulators on antepost markets!


In fact I read that just after I had made over £100,000 in the previous 2 seasons and in such a way that it could be seen that it wasn't down to pure chance.

Now of course I havnt provided evidence to support my claim that I won this money but I am in possession of overwhelming evidence to support my claims and there is in fact independent evidence on the Internet about my 'exploits'.

But I'm not here to prove I'm telling the truth since I don't really want lots of smart people believing this!


The point about Geoff Harveys book is that almost all gamblers on the Internet believe 100% that he is right.


And since I have never published a popular successful book I have no credibility.

Thus my message is widely ignored........
(edited 8 years ago)
Reply 57
Hard to believe this considering I've known people to be sports gubbed after being only £30 up. Care to provide any supporting screenshots?
Reply 58
Original post by Reue
Hard to believe this considering I've known people to be sports gubbed after being only £30 up. Care to provide any supporting screenshots?



Gubbed?

You mean banned I take it.

Well,yes indeed.Thats one of the things I'm referring to when I say that almost everything I read online is counter to my own experience.

Don't get me wrong in this case however.Im well aware that many gamblers are banned by bookies and I've even read a book called,

'Speaking with Forked Tounges' by two northerners who were so outraged by the actions of bookies that they started a campaign.Well worth a look on YouTube btw.

Here's the thing though.

Bookies ban people who are either arbing or are taking advantage of best prices.

I do neither.

Also every bookie believes I'm going to lose!

After all I'm doing accumulators on markets with big overrounds.


As for providing evidence the thing is I'm happy to not be believed.


If I provide evidence many people will think I'm here to show off.This is what happened to me on gambling forums.

I'd rather be thought a fantasist than a show off.


Anyway a smart person I think should be able to make a reasonably accurate judgement by asking questions.
(edited 8 years ago)
The rolling challenge is say for ex £25-£1000 or £10,000. You start off with £25 of your own money and bet on short odds 1/3,1/2,8/15 etc and keep rolling your winnings on to the next bet.I've seen it build up very quickly, were you win £1000 just on a goal being scored in the 1st or 2nd half. You are staking big but it's technically not your money.

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