My take on the AQA A-Level Economics Paper 3 Q31.
"To what extent, if at all, do the data suggest that the reliance on fossil fuels to produce energy is falling?"
You must use the data in Extract C to support your assessment. (10 marks)
Fossil fuel can be defined as forms of non-renewable energy expenditure methods such as oil, natural gas and coal.
The extent to which fossil fuel reliance is falling can be seen from the data provided in Extract C, Figure 1. The reliance on non-renewable energy in the world market. In 2006 the energy consumption of fossil fuels has decreased by approximately 87.4% to just 85.5% by 2016. This implies that over the last 10 years, there has been a decreasing reliance on fossil fuels to produce energy as opposed to its reliance increasing; total fossil fuel energy expenditure decreased by 1.9%. However, during the same 10 year period, there has been an increase on the reliance on other renewable forms of energy such as
nuclear and hydroelectricity from 12.6% to 14.5%. This could be due to increasing demand for energy regardless of its form may be due to increased population size and their demand for energy; there has been a global increase in the demand for energy by 17.8% during the last 10 years. This means that the extent to which the reliance on fossil fuels is falling isn't as exaggerated as the data in isolation would suggest.
Figure 3 and Figure 4 show that there have been relative decreases in the price of fossil fuels such as coal and oil from 2006 to 2016. For instance, the price of oil has fallen from $64 per barrel to $44 per barrel from 2006 to 2016; a decrease of 31.3% during the 10 year period.
The steep fall in price infers that there has been a decreasing reliance on fossil fuels to produce energy has been falling since producers of coal oil are willing to charge lower prices to sell their commodity.
However, the price of coal has fallen from $64 per tonne to just $60 per tonne in the 10 year period; a decrease of 6.25% from 2006 to 2016. In contrast to the price fall of oil, coal hasn't been in decline as much as oil has during the 10 year period. This could mean that the extent to which fossil fuels energy reliance is falling depends on the type of fossil fuel in question. In this instance, there has been an increasing fall in the reliance on oil as opposed to coal to produce energy
Peaks in Figure 3 and 4, however, suggests that there may have been an increasing reliance on fossil fuels to produce energy. For instance, in Figure 3, the price of coal in US dollars per tonne has increased by 123.4% from $64 per tonne to $143 per tonne in just a 2 year period. This may suggest that at one point in time the reliance of coal, a fossil fuel, had increased substantially. This can be reflected in the huge price hike in a short period of time. However, this may not serve as direct evidence that there is an increasing reliance on fossil fuels for several reasons. Subsequent years have shown that there have been decreases in the price of coal from 2008; the price of coal peaked again at $120 per tonne in 2011 and has never peaked again 5 years on, falling to a price of just $60 per tonne in 2016, a sharp decrease of 50% from 2011 to 2016. There is a need for more data before 2006 and beyond 2016 to reach a tentative conclusion as to whether fossil fuel reliance had been increasing or decreasing. The data given suggests that at one point there was a large reliance on fossil fuels as a means of energy expenditure
In judgement, the data infers that there has been a fall in the reliance on fossil fuels over time as a means of producing energy in the global market. Data in Figure 1 show that has been a 1.9% decrease in the use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas to fuel energy expenditure, during the same 10 year period, there has been an increase in other renewable energy forms such as hydro as well as geothermal by 1.9% suggesting that there has been a global shift from fossils fuel as a means of energy expenditure to more renewable forms. Data in Figure 3 and 4 show that over time, there has been a fall in the prices of oil and coal together indicating that there has been a decrease in their demand for energy expenditure. Overall, the extent to which fossil fuels to produce energy is falling/has fallen depends on time. The data in Figures 1, 3 and 4 only show us the trends from 2006 to 2016; as of 2019, there may have been monumental changes in the trends of data suggesting that the original story that the data shows about decreasing reliance of fossils to produce energy may have reversed.