EU referendum/Brexit 2016

It is either we leave. Or the EU breaks apart and we leave. Either way we will be out of it. Finally and thank the Lord.

We'll vote to stay in and the EU won't fall apart

If you say so.

We'll vote to stay in and the EU won't fall apart

It's fairly obvious tbh.

Whether we vote to stay or leave depends heavily on what happens between now and then, but the main players in the EU will likely stop being so stubborn and give us what we want if there is any sign we're going to vote out, we pay a lot in and they don't want to pick up the bill.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Potentially, but support for the EU is very high. UKIP turned it into what many see as a racist v non-racist issue. It'll not even be close.

You seem to be making quite a massive assumption that this massive swing in the polling is a permanent fixture

Posted from TSR Mobile

It would take a huge swing for out to win. I doubt we can pull it off.

I expect it will be Scotland all over again, the EU refuse to give anything of substance, the large lead for in due to the belief we will get what we want wains, out either leads a few polls or gets close, EU panics and gives us what we want. Unless people are convinced that we will get reform even when rejected it will be win win

Posted from TSR Mobile

I think there are many people happy to stay in with no change. I expect about 55% to 45% with no reforms and 65% to 35% with reforms.

I think it's foolish to make such bold suggestions so early, after all, if the Eurozone continues to stagnate and goes back into recession then support for leave will shoot back up, as it did in 2012, then you can't really predict how people will react when the arguments start rather than the usual UKIP "IMMIGRANTS!!!!!"

If UKIP shut up about immigration then it would be close as to who wins. I'm not sure they will.

That implies that the UKIP campaign will be the only campaign... There will be at least 3.

Not really, UKIPs has the ability to **** it up for the others.

I'm all for the EU but considering recent events and how the migrant crisis has transpired and the disorganisation of the EU response, is there any benefit in us being the EU when it comes to strategic responses?

Anti EU sentiment has been growing steadily in the UK and the migrant crisis has done nothing to curb it

Can anyone see any other result than the UK leaving the EU?

Although opinion polls aren't in fashion now the yes camp has a clear lead in most polls most recently you gov showed support at its highest level in decades.additionally the so called establishment have won the last two referendums- I think it will do again. The British like to play it safe

The response to the migrant crisis is individual states who ultimately run the EU disagreeing as has the UK- taking in refugees is down to member states.

I reckon most people will ignore the UKIP one, and even the "other politicians" one too to a lesser extent.