Colleges - Jesus or St John's?

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    I'm trying to choose between Jesus and St John's and I just don't know which to apply to. Does anyone have any advice for helping me choose? I know there's a lot of info about each but I'm not sure what the most important bits are. What kind of people tend to end up in each? Is being able to use your room in the holidays an advantage, or something people actually do?
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    (Original post by wolfbladequeen)
    I'm trying to choose between Jesus and St John's and I just don't know which to apply to. Does anyone have any advice for helping me choose? I know there's a lot of info about each but I'm not sure what the most important bits are. What kind of people tend to end up in each? Is being able to use your room in the holidays an advantage, or something people actually do?
    The "kind of people" bit is the least important and varies every year with each new intake. In summary, it's every kind at every college . Most of them will be your kind of people....

    Have you checked out the alternative prospectus - and used the form at the foot to ask a student?

    https://www.applytocambridge.com/colleges/johns
    https://www.applytocambridge.com/colleges/jesus
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    (Original post by jneill)
    The "kind of people" bit is the least important and varies every year with each new intake.

    Have you checked out the alternative prospectus - and used the form at the foot to ask a student?

    https://www.applytocambridge.com/colleges/johns
    https://www.applytocambridge.com/colleges/jesus
    I had checked the alternative prospectus, but I had forgotten it had a form you could use to ask questions. Thank you
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    (Original post by wolfbladequeen)
    I'm trying to choose between Jesus and St John's and I just don't know which to apply to. Does anyone have any advice for helping me choose? I know there's a lot of info about each but I'm not sure what the most important bits are. What kind of people tend to end up in each? Is being able to use your room in the holidays an advantage, or something people actually do?
    Same kind of people at any other colleges....
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    Look at admissions statistics for your course is what I'd say. It's a lie that the pool system means your choice doesn't affect your chances of getting in. It 100% does.
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Look at admissions statistics for your course is what I'd say. It's a lie that the pool system means your choice doesn't affect your chances of getting in. It 100% does.
    It 100% doesnt affect your chance of getting into Cambridge.

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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Look at admissions statistics for your course is what I'd say. It's a lie that the pool system means your choice doesn't affect your chances of getting in. It 100% does.
    Proof?
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    (Original post by jneill)
    It 100% doesnt affect your chance of getting into Cambridge.
    I was expecting you to jump in!

    (Original post by vincrows)
    Proof?
    Here you go fam:

    Let's take a look at the admissions statistics. We'll go with Law since that's what I'm most familiar with. Now, King's College is (unsurprisingly) the most oversubscribed college. In 2016, it had 92 direct applicants (no open applications were allocated to King's). It gave out a mere 4 direct offers, and only 8 people who were pooled by King's were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to King's, you had a 4.3% chance of getting a direct offer from them, and a 13% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (King's + any other colleges who want you).

    Now look at Peterhouse. Peterhouse got 27 direct applicants in 2016 (also 0 open applications). They gave out 7 offers, and 2 people pooled by Peterhouse were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to Peterhouse, you had a 27% change of getting a direct offer, and a 29% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (Peterhouse + any other colleges who want you).

    The reason why the pool system isn't reliable is because being pooled doesn't guarantee you an offer, meaning you should never aim to be pooled and hope to get an offer through the pool. With King's you probably have about a 25% chance of being pooled, then another 25% chance of being given an offer from another college that has taken you from the pool. That means that your chances of firstly being pooled by King's, then another college taking you from the pool, are 6%. Your chances of being given an offer through the pool are even lower if you apply to another college, since King's submit the most candidates to the pool of all the colleges. Hence why you shouldn't rely on the pool system to make your application chances equal regardless of the college you apply to.

    You'll find a similar situation with any course (though not necessarily the same colleges), not just Law.

    Source: http://www.undergraduate.study.cam.a...ply/statistics (Select 'Specific year', identify a course, then select 'Group by College')
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    I was expecting you to jump in!



    Here you go fam:

    Let's take a look at the admissions statistics. We'll go with Law since that's what I'm most familiar with. Now, King's College is (unsurprisingly) the most oversubscribed college. In 2016, it had 92 direct applicants (no open applications were allocated to King's). It gave out a mere 4 direct offers, and only 8 people who were pooled by King's were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to King's, you had a 4.3% chance of getting a direct offer from them, and a 13% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (King's + any other colleges who want you).

    Now look at Peterhouse. Peterhouse got 27 direct applicants in 2016 (also 0 open applications). They gave out 7 offers, and 2 people pooled by Peterhouse were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to Peterhouse, you had a 27% change of getting a direct offer, and a 29% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (Peterhouse + any other colleges who want you).

    The reason why the pool system isn't reliable is because being pooled doesn't guarantee you an offer, meaning you should never aim to be pooled and hope to get an offer through the pool. With King's you probably have about a 25% chance of being pooled, then another 25% chance of being given an offer from another college that has taken you from the pool. That means that your chances of firstly being pooled by King's, then another college taking you from the pool, are 6%. Your chances of being given an offer through the pool are even lower if you apply to another college, since King's submit the most candidates to the pool of all the colleges. Hence why you shouldn't rely on the pool system to make your application chances equal regardless of the college you apply to.

    You'll find a similar situation with any course (though not necessarily the same colleges), not just Law.
    King's has a high proportion of International candidates who fail to get offers, and that significantly affects their overall college success rate.

    Honestly, the CAT did his own detailed analysis a couple of years ago and was satisfied that overall there's no point playing the stats game.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    King's has a high proportion of International candidates who fail to get offers, and that significantly affects their overall college success rate.

    Honestly, the CAT did his own detailed analysis a couple of years ago and was satisfied that overall there's no point playing the stats game.
    It doesn't have to be King's, I just chose that one because it represents the inequality of the pool system best. Your chances of getting in statistically do change depending on the college you apply to. There may be some explanations like the one you mentioned for King's, but it cannot explain away all the inequalities for all the colleges. There is fundamental inequality in application chances depending on college choice, and affirmative action really needs to be taken by Cambridge to address this by making the pool system more closely monitored and managed, perhaps by giving colleges a ratio of direct applicants : pool applicants they need to give offers to. It's true that this would limit college freedom, but I think it's necessary to ensure that there is as much equality in everyone's applications as possible.

    Until then, we have to play the stats game.

    I really would be interested in seeing this detailed analysis from CAT though, if you could link it?
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    I really would be interested in seeing this detailed analysis from CAT though, if you could link it?
    I think it was a couple of years ago - I'll leave you to find it. All his threads are listed in my stickied Master post.

    Anyway - how do you play when you have spikes like this? (Relevant because Jesus is one of the OP colleges.)

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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    It doesn't have to be King's, I just chose that one because it represents the inequality of the pool system best. Your chances of getting in statistically do change depending on the college you apply to, this is a fact. There may be some explanations like the one you mentioned for King's, but it cannot explain away all the inequalities for all the colleges. There is fundamental inequality in application chances depending on college choice, and affirmative action really needs to be taken by Cambridge to address this by making the pool system more closely monitored and managed, perhaps by giving colleges a ratio of direct applicants : pool applicants they need to give offers to. It's true that this would limit college freedom, but I think it's necessary to ensure that there is as much equality in everyone's applications as possible.

    Until then, we have to play the stats game.

    I really would be interested in seeing this detailed analysis from CAT though, if you could link it?
    Read "About Colleges" in this post and all the links.
    http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/show....php?t=3733847

    The most important thing you should remember is that all colleges can see the field of applicants to all other colleges from the earliest stage of assessment process. So they can see the strength/weakness of the direct applicants to their college. So they make decision on giving offers/rejection/pooling and how many to fish from the pool to make sure the university as a whole will get the strongest candidates no matter which college they applied to.
    And this is a really serious job for the university, and the system was designed to achieve it.

    If you're good enough for Cambridge, you're in, regardless of a college you applied to. It may not be the college you applied to, bot you get in Cambridge.

    Some of us have tried to explain it many times before, but you still seems to be unconvinced. So perhaps you'll never be convinced how many times and how much we tried.
    So please feel free to play the statistic games if that makes you happy. It's your application.
    But please do not pepper this forum with your incomplete analysis of statistics and try to influence other applicants with your wrong conclusion, its not fair to them.
    Thank you.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    Anyway - how do play when you have spikes like this? (Relevant because Jesus is one of the OP colleges.)

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    Unfortunately because we don't have crystal balls, we can only extrapolate based on past admissions statistics and hope they remain largely consistent. And for the most part, they are consistent across the years. Occasionally there are spikes like this one, but their occurance is unavoidable; maybe one year all applicants from the same school decided to apply to the same college. You just have to hope you don't get caught in a random spike. When there is obvious instability in application/offer ratio, I would probably avoid the college because I wouldn't be able to make a safe judgement about my chances. With that graph you posted though, I think I would just discount the spike, because other than that the applicant and offer numbers are fairly consistent, albeit with a slight upwards trend.

    With most colleges though the numbers are consistent and you can make a safe extrapolation. You just have to hope you don't get caught in an inevitably random spike.
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Unfortunately because we don't have crystal balls, we can only extrapolate based on past admissions statistics and hope they remain largely consistent. And for the most part, they are consistent across the colleges. Occasionally there are spikes like this one, but their occurance is unavoidable; maybe one year all applicants from the same school decided to apply to the same college. You just have to hope you don't get caught in a random spike. When there is obvious instability in application/offer ratio, I would probably avoid the college because I wouldn't be able to make a safe judgement about my chances. With that graph you posted though, I think I would just discount the spike, because other than that the applicant and offer numbers are fairly consistent, albeit with a slight upwards trend.

    With most colleges though the numbers are consistent and you can make a safe extrapolation. You just have to hope you don't get caught in an inevitably random spike.
    If you get caught in a random spike it makes no difference so long as you are good enough for Cambridge. If you are you get in.

    Anyway - as vincrows said it's your application...
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Unfortunately because we don't have crystal balls, we can only extrapolate based on past admissions statistics and hope they remain largely consistent. And for the most part, they are consistent across the years. Occasionally there are spikes like this one, but their occurance is unavoidable; maybe one year all applicants from the same school decided to apply to the same college. You just have to hope you don't get caught in a random spike. When there is obvious instability in application/offer ratio, I would probably avoid the college because I wouldn't be able to make a safe judgement about my chances. With that graph you posted though, I think I would just discount the spike, because other than that the applicant and offer numbers are fairly consistent, albeit with a slight upwards trend.

    With most colleges though the numbers are consistent and you can make a safe extrapolation. You just have to hope you don't get caught in an inevitably random spike.
    exactly. You never know what sort of unusual thing may happen in the year you're applying. So it makes it even more pointless you play the statistic game.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    If you get caught in a random spike it makes no difference so long as you are good enough for Cambridge. If you are you get in.

    Anyway - as vincrows said it's your application...
    The application numbers make no difference as long as you are good enough for that particular college. Different colleges have different capacities to take on those who are 'good enough'. Peterhouse has a greater capacity than King's for Law, for example. That's why it's important to apply to a college which has a suitable capacity to make sure you have a realistic chance of getting an offer.

    (When I say capacity, I mean how many offers they usually make. I know there is no quota.)
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    (Original post by vincrows)
    exactly. You never know what sort of unusual thing may happen in the year you're applying. So it makes it even more pointless you play the statistic game.
    Did you read the part where I said for most colleges they are consistent enough to make safe extrapolations? You just have to hope you don't get caught in a spike. Spikes aren't that frequent that they disrupt your ability to extrapolate.
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Did you read the part where I said for most colleges they are consistent enough to make safe extrapolations? You just have to hope you don't get caught in a spike. Spikes aren't that frequent that they disrupt your ability to extrapolate.
    It's your application. Do it as you please.
    Good luck.
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    Here you go fam:

    Let's take a look at the admissions statistics. We'll go with Law since that's what I'm most familiar with. Now, King's College is (unsurprisingly) the most oversubscribed college. In 2016, it had 92 direct applicants (no open applications were allocated to King's). It gave out a mere 4 direct offers, and only 8 people who were pooled by King's were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to King's, you had a 4.3% chance of getting a direct offer from them, and a 13% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (King's + any other colleges who want you).

    Now look at Peterhouse. Peterhouse got 27 direct applicants in 2016 (also 0 open applications). They gave out 7 offers, and 2 people pooled by Peterhouse were given offers from other colleges. So if you applied to Peterhouse, you had a 27% change of getting a direct offer, and a 29% chance of getting an offer from Cambridge at all (Peterhouse + any other colleges who want you).

    The reason why the pool system isn't reliable is because being pooled doesn't guarantee you an offer, meaning you should never aim to be pooled and hope to get an offer through the pool. With King's you probably have about a 25% chance of being pooled, then another 25% chance of being given an offer from another college that has taken you from the pool. That means that your chances of firstly being pooled by King's, then another college taking you from the pool, are 6%. Your chances of being given an offer through the pool are even lower if you apply to another college, since King's submit the most candidates to the pool of all the colleges. Hence why you shouldn't rely on the pool system to make your application chances equal regardless of the college you apply to.

    You'll find a similar situation with any course (though not necessarily the same colleges), not just Law.

    Source: http://www.undergraduate.study.cam.a...ply/statistics (Select 'Specific year', identify a course, then select 'Group by College')
    Oh god you really don't understand statistics.

    You would need to analyse the statistics for many years, and account for the bias of what type of people apply to which college.

    Repeat after me:
    Correlation does not imply causation.
    Correlation does not imply causation.
    Correlation does not imply causation.
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    (Original post by Abstract_Prism)
    The application numbers make no difference as long as you are good enough for that particular college. Different colleges have different capacities to take on those who are 'good enough'. Peterhouse has a greater capacity than King's for Law, for example. That's why it's important to apply to a college which has a suitable capacity to make sure you have a realistic chance of getting an offer.

    (When I say capacity, I mean how many offers they usually make. I know there is no quota.)
    What "capacity"? Kings usually takes more than Peterhouse for Law, certainly recently.

    Absolutely there's no quota, and the course-by-course offer allocations at a specific college is one of the key roles of the AT. They have to juggle the requirements and demands across all the courses. One year might be strong for say Law but weaker for say Engineering, so the AT can work with the DoSes to have more Law offers and fewer Engineering.

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