Hello.
I've charted some of the scores and made some assumptions about this UCAT cycle that try to guess the final deciles.
The following shows the recent years of UCAT Interims vs Finals. 2016 UCAT adjusted by multiplying the original score by four thirds.
Raw data:
24/27 of the deciles between 2017 and 2019 fell by 60 points. The most a decile has fallen by has been 70 and the least has been 40. The average fall is 59.6.
There does not seem to be a trend in regards to which decile consistently drops more or less than others.
As the 2019 data seemed to follow a similar trend to 2018, 2020 seems to follow a similar trend to 2017.
What I found most interesting about this is that the 2020/2017 interim scores difference gradually shrink from 30 to 10 over the deciles.
I've seen at least one individual on the forum expressing shock that 15,000 people are yet to take the test. I like to the believe that the number is a bit inflated, but I can not say if this is or is not a trend for UCAT to do as I can not access previous data directly from UCAT, as well as dates being changed due to the pandemic.
Using numbers reported by themedicportal, however, and the number of candidates indicated by UCAT above the SJT:
Going by percentage average, 8,199 more participants are expected.
Going by difference average, 15,510 more participants are expected.
Given everything mentioned above, if you're impatient, I would advise comparing to 2017 entry scores. My final estimated deciles are:
1st: 2190
2nd: 2310
3rd: 2390
4th: 2450
5th: 2520
6th: 2580
7th: 2650
8th: 2730
9th: 2850
More so, I would advise that everyone waits until the final results from UCAT come out and compare to that. Due to the global situation, and drawing what may be obscure parallels, my estimates may be complete baloney.
I hope this may relax those who have a genuine worry about their score.