How likely is a severe recession?

In 2022 there was a severe global crisis where 2/3s of G20 members were experiencing inflation rates over 7%. This was an indicator of an economic recession in most G7 members, because many countries like Germany were dependent on Russian oil and gas. This meant that when sanctions were implemented, output of major economies like Germany were reduced significantly. This is because, oil is a significant factor of production. In late 2023 sanctions are still being implemented, because of this how likely is a major economic depression in 2024?

(edited 5 months ago)

Reply 1

Quady

20

Original post by Kingdragon

In 2022 there was a severe global crisis where 2/3s of G20 members were experiencing inflation rates over 7%. This was an indicator of an economic recession in most G7 members, because many countries like Germany were dependent on Russian oil and gas. This meant that when sanctions were implemented, output of major economies like Germany were reduced significantly. This is because, oil is a significant factor of production. In late 2023 sanctions are still being implemented, because of this how likely is a major economic depression in 2024?

There wasnt recessions in most G7 countries in 2022 though....
...can you even have a depression within a calendar year...?

Reply 2

Rakas21

21

Original post by Kingdragon

In 2022 there was a severe global crisis where 2/3s of G20 members were experiencing inflation rates over 7%. This was an indicator of an economic recession in most G7 members, because many countries like Germany were dependent on Russian oil and gas. This meant that when sanctions were implemented, output of major economies like Germany were reduced significantly. This is because, oil is a significant factor of production. In late 2023 sanctions are still being implemented, because of this how likely is a major economic depression in 2024?

An inflationary shock can lead to recession but in the bulk of the world it was not severe enough to do so. In the case of the UK we have seen growth fall to 0.5% in Q1 of 2023 (Annual growth) however the employment rate has held because businesses have thus far been able to pass on price increases to customers and wage growth has remained robust negating some of the impact. While the poor have struggled with the increase in energy inflation especially, the middle classes have continued to maintain savings rates.

In the medium term falling inflation is being countered by increased mortgage costs and an increase in negative housing equity.

While other economies may differ, it seems that growth rates are similar (if anything worse in the Eurozone) and as such for now i'd broadly assume a similar tune.

Original post by Kingdragon

In 2022 there was a severe global crisis where 2/3s of G20 members were experiencing inflation rates over 7%. This was an indicator of an economic recession in most G7 members, because many countries like Germany were dependent on Russian oil and gas. This meant that when sanctions were implemented, output of major economies like Germany were reduced significantly. This is because, oil is a significant factor of production. In late 2023 sanctions are still being implemented, because of this how likely is a major economic depression in 2024?

With wages now growing in real terms and only a limited uptick in unemployment expected, this should largely offset the lagged impact of tighter monetary and fiscal policy in the UK. So we're far more likely to continue to see quarterly growth coming in at and around zero, rather than a major recession in 2024, barring any further economic shocks.

This is my answer for a major recession in the UK, if you're asking about a depression then I think you need to look up the difference in definitions and how the latter doesn't really fit with the premise of your question.

How likely is a severe recession?

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