Federer has an average start to the tournament , with perhaps a 4th round test. Once it gets to the QFs, however, his section becomes 500 times more difficult with Nadal and Murray in the way.
This does, however, present some sort of opportunity to prove he can still beat Nadal in a Grand Slam, regardless of how unlikely it may be. It's all mental and I'm not sure how he would approach the match were the two to meet. If he can get through Nadal, Murray will be waiting to take him down. Federer's best chance at the title is to somehow beat Nadal, hope Murray loses earlier and hope his confidence and momentum propels him into the final against Djokovic or someone else.
In light of the draw, my new picks are Murray and Djokovic for the title match really.