I don't think Rafa is going to smart too badly from his loss to Fognini. He should really have buried it when he was 6-1, 2-1 up, but that's tennis sometimes. He knew deep down that his level was way off his best and he just wasn't able to conjure up the kind of tennis that usually gets him through these type of matches. For anyone that didn't see it, it was a pretty controversial match. Rafa received a second time violation and was docked a first serve at 2-4, 40-40 in the second set, a game he went on to lose. He then ranted at umpire Carlos Bernardes requesting he not be umpired by him again, and literally tanked the final game of the second set out of disgust (combination of that incident and annoyance at having let Fognini in to the match). Never seen him so frustrated as to go on to do that.
It's premature to talk about Rafa being in decline, as this wasn't really reflected in the match last night. He was beaten both by a player who stepped it up to a superb level of play, as well as himself really. The litmus test for decline is always going to be Roland Garros. If he fails to make it past the QF, then maybe that discussion is there to be had, but until then, losing to an opponent playing great tennis in a low level clay court tournament isn't really a massive cause for concern. Both Nadal and Federer have had the decline assigned to them each multple times, yet each of them are still putting themselves in genuine positions to win majors. At RG the type of player he is, year in year out, is different from anywhere else on the circuit during the year.
Dubai is a stacked field indeed. Interesting to see if Berdych is able to continue his form from Australia.