BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump orders the wall to be built.

The government is likely to win, and employment rate should go up.

But doesn't change the fact it's still Americans, not Mexicans, paying for the wall.

It's true that perhaps this is a scare tactic instead of "I'm going to make Mexicans chip in but taxing only Americans!" but in that case 20% isn't enough.

Mexicans can be exported to Canada and imported into the US. No tariff, slight price increase with the Canadian middle man, unlikely to decrease trade volumes.

If that loophole's closed, 20% may still not do much - the US dollar has been rising and the peso has been dropping. Not unlikely at all for the peso to drop 20% against the dollar. In this case, the government wins, Mexico doesn't sell less, and Americans don't pay more.

Another likely scenario is if Mexican products become too expensive, another developing country like China wins. Trump can't slap a tariff on all countries with a trade surplus against the US - there are only like 7 countries, leading with Hong Kong, with a trade deficit against the US.

Factories moving from Mexico to the US is not another win - sooner or later Americans will be faced with unbearable inflation if everything's produced in the US.

And Mexico loses...ergo it did what it was supposed to do.

And Mexico loses...ergo it did what it was supposed to do.