If the General Election was tomorrow who would you vote for?

Original post by Rakas21

The Scotland point is a good one if the SNP get above about 30% then all the Tories have to do is stand still to take the other 2 border seats. After that i think Argyle, West Aberdeen and West Edinburgh actually become fairly marginal though it will be hard to keep out the SNP.

Exactly. Edinburgh West doesn't go really. I played about on the 'electoral calculus' predictors for Scotland and I could get it to go. SNP always sneak it. It's a melting pot seat though, much like Aberdeen West.

Caveats have to be applied ie I think it makes the vote share too generic. By that I mean: my seat - normally Labour but with strong Tory rural outskirts. Yet, when I chucked those numbers in I got SNP 38%. Lab 38.5%. Tory 39%.
I can't see SNP polling that high, also D and G voted 67% NO 33% YES in the referendum so again 38% SNP seems too high.

However, despite this, I think in more deprived areas (where Labour have stronger support) you may find if the SNP vote is less distributed among rural areas - well Tory rural areas as I'm sure they'll poll well in Perth despite some Tory vote - then logic would dictate they'll perform better in urban areas (comparatively).
Again... No wonder Labour are worried.

The predictor had Kirkcaldy (Gordon Brown's seat) this seat is ALWAYS Labour with a margin of just 8% to Labour from SNP. You may think 8% is still a healthy lead but compared the 30+% majority he currently holds (can't remember exact figure but it's basically, bar Paisley, the strongest Labour seat) then it's a catastrophe.

I also have heard that Alex Salmond may stand for East Renfrewshire (if as expected, Jim Murphy gets elected leader). Although, due to it being mainly at Tory/Lab seat I'd prefer if he didn't :wink:

Reply 42

zippity.doodah

3

UKIP
if everybody is to vote for the system of two-party dominance, they will forever be trapped with the system they so despise
if you vote for the lesser of two evils - you still get evil. if you trust them once and they turn their backs on you - turn your back on them (we have a democracy, don't we?)
if you vote for the same old parties that never learn their lessons and take their votes for granted, you are just as bad as they are
to be responsible is to reject two-party politics; in my area, there are only 2 choices (lib dem and tory) - I don't care if my vote is worthless - I'd rather it be worthless than the system to tell me to support only one of two opinions when apparently I live in a state where I can vote for whoever I want in a fair manner.

therefore, I urge people - those on the right, vote UKIP, and those on the left, vote green.
with the conservatives and labour, there is no "left and right", there is simply "the system"
to all those dissatisfied by the conservatives and labour (and the lib dems) you literally are the cause of your own grievance.
everybody else who is fed up of the same old politics are thinking the exact same thought you are - "everybody else is voting this way so I have no choice";
you have every choice - the choice to either be a sheep or a shepherd.

the only possible way for the system to change is to force it to change. if there is no legitimacy amongst the elected, it won't be long until there is reform towards legitimate forms of governance.
I have more respect for someone who doesn't vote at all than a person who tactically votes.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 43

TimmonaPortella

My preference would be the Tories, but if the main contenders against labour in my local seat were UKIP or the Lib Dems, I'd vote for either of those.

Reply 44

Commercial Paper

Voted for UKIP in the European elections.

On the fence about the General Election slightly. First time voting also.

Will be between UKIP or Conservatives for me.

UKIP appear to be driving the agenda here. Would the Conservatives even be offering a tax cut, immigration controls or a referendum on Europe without UKIP? I doubt it - this makes me want to vote for UKIP; I like their low state approach also.

Conservatives are economically competent which I like but very, very unconvincing on other issues such as the above - and it worries me they don't seem to care unless UKIP announce it.

At present; I'm undecided. But most likely UKIP - they just have the balance for me until Conservatives can look like less of an unorganised mess and start talking as if they actually lead the country.

Labour for me are full of people who will say anything to get a vote, weak leadership, out of touch and seem to want to increase taxes so they can dump it in a black hole without realising the state is way too over inflated still. Not my cup of tea for sure.

Lib Dems - tuition fees.

Greens - we will never agree economically and they are also obsessed with taxing people until they have nothing left like Labour.

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(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 45

Original post by zippity.doodah

UKIP
if everybody is to vote for the system of two-party dominance, they will forever be trapped with the system they so despise
if you vote for the lesser of two evils - you still get evil. if you trust them once and they turn their backs on you - turn your back on them (we have a democracy, don't we?)
if you vote for the same old parties that never learn their lessons and take their votes for granted, you are just as bad as they are
to be responsible is to reject two-party politics; in my area, there are only 2 choices (lib dem and tory) - I don't care if my vote is worthless - I'd rather it be worthless than the system to tell me to support only one of two opinions when apparently I live in a state where I can vote for whoever I want in a fair manner.

therefore, I urge people - those on the right, vote UKIP, and those on the left, vote green.
with the conservatives and labour, there is no "left and right", there is simply "the system"
to all those dissatisfied by the conservatives and labour (and the lib dems) you literally are the cause of your own grievance.
everybody else who is fed up of the same old politics are thinking the exact same thought you are - "everybody else is voting this way so I have no choice";
you have every choice - the choice to either be a sheep or a shepherd.

the only possible way for the system to change is to force it to change. if there is no legitimacy amongst the elected, it won't be long until there is reform towards legitimate forms of governance.
I have more respect for someone who doesn't vote at all than a person who tactically votes.

How, in your opinion, would UKIP (if they got into power) be any different re the 'establishment'? What makes you think they wouldn't sell out like every other party has done....
Why makes you think their MPs wouldn't have abused their expenses...

I don't agree with all Tory policy (I lean 'left' in the party so therefore I want UKIP/Euro skeptic policies ditched and removed. I'm happy or that dredging to occur after a (let's hope) No vote to leaving the EU in a referendum.

Apart from tuition fees and some tweaking, I happy with what I voted for. I know what I'm getting.

Do you support Ukip's policies? Or are you blinded by IMMIGRATION and OUT OF EU....

Do you support a fully privatised health service? Not free at the point of use?

Do you think we should have a flat rte of tax? As many in UKIP have supported...

Do you think the Smoking ban should be repealed? (popular among supporters). Just a liberal, wushu washy policy no doubt .... (Sarcasm)

Do you think breaking up with one of our largest trading partners is a good idea?

Do you think social integration of different races an religions would be enhanced and improved under UKIP?

Do you think the UK would attract such foreign talent if UKIP immigration policies were introduced? But if course, silly me, they're taking 'our jobs' - I can only hear South Park when I type this phrase haha...

Reply 46

Commercial Paper

Original post by Unistudent77

How, in your opinion, would UKIP (if they got into power) be any different re the 'establishment'? What makes you think they wouldn't sell out like every other party has done....
Why makes you think their MPs wouldn't have abused their expenses...

I don't agree with all Tory policy (I lean 'left' in the party so therefore I want UKIP/Euro skeptic policies ditched and removed. I'm happy or that dredging to occur after a (let's hope) No vote to leaving the EU in a referendum.

Apart from tuition fees and some tweaking, I happy with what I voted for. I know what I'm getting.

Do you support Ukip's policies? Or are you blinded by IMMIGRATION and OUT OF EU....

Do you support a fully privatised health service? Not free at the point of use?

Do you think we should have a flat rte of tax? As many in UKIP have supported...

Do you think the Smoking ban should be repealed? (popular among supporters). Just a liberal, wushu washy policy no doubt .... (Sarcasm)

Do you think breaking up with one of our largest trading partners is a good idea?

Do you think social integration of different races an religions would be enhanced and improved under UKIP?

Do you think the UK would attract such foreign talent if UKIP immigration policies were introduced? But if course, silly me, they're taking 'our jobs' - I can only hear South Park when I type this phrase haha...

This is very misleading...

1. They support a free health service at the point of use
2. They support a tax cut, not a flat rate
3. They advocate remaining a trading partner without the political union
4. UK talent would benefit because we will have access to immigration from outside the EU - the system we have at the moment is the worst of both worlds.

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Reply 47

Original post by will2348

This is very misleading...

1. They support a free health service at the point of use
2. They support a tax cut, not a flat rate
3. They advocate remaining a trading partner without the political union
4. UK talent would benefit because we will have access to immigration from outside the EU - the system we have at the moment is the worst of both worlds.

Posted from TSR Mobile

UKIP are in the very fortuitous position of being able to supply 'fantasy economics' since they are nowhere near getting in government.

1) may be true in an ideal world but as soon as the adverse consequences of a tax cut and a EU exit hit then privitisation of the NHS is the next step. I don't mind a little privitisation but UKIP don't have a real commitment to the NHS.

The EU is a positive thing economically. Business is very pro-EU. Perhaps, there are problems with it politically and the processes involved in the EU but overall, I think we should stay in.

If we left, Scotland would leave the UK. So not only have you alienated the EU, you've shrink rUK. The rest of UK would be far worse of without Scotland but I suppose you probably won't see this.

Edit: note Farage's confidence ratings from his own supporters....
Cameron on the economy - over 75% confidence
Farage - 32% says it all

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 48

Original post by will2348

This is very misleading...

4. UK talent would benefit because we will have access to immigration from outside the EU - the system we have at the moment is the worst of both worlds.

Posted from TSR Mobile

It's not really true to say we benefit on that point. We can import as much labour as we want from outside the EU, EU membership does not affect how likely an Australian is to get a visa.

Reply 49

Commercial Paper

Original post by Rakas21

It's not really true to say we benefit on that point. We can import as much labour as we want from outside the EU, EU membership does not affect how likely an Australian is to get a visa.

Correct. But currently immigration levels from the EU are high enough as it is uncontrolled that the government feels it necessary to restrict immigration from other countries. So what I'm saying is we could have a more balanced approach.

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Reply 50

FreshGarbage

3

Green party :smile:

they have some really good policies but don't get enough media attention. Pretty much the opposite of ukip XD

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Reply 51

Original post by will2348

Correct. But currently immigration levels from the EU are high enough as it is uncontrolled that the government feels it necessary to restrict immigration from other countries. So what I'm saying is we could have a more balanced approach.

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Meh. The number of immigrants is not a concern to me, i'm far more concerned at African asylum seekers who can barely speak English or Muslims continuing to turn Bradford into a massive ghetto. I'd be happy with high immigration levels if a large proportion where from the Anglosphere.

Reply 52

Mad Vlad

19

I'll be doing the sensible thing and voting Conservative.

Labour scare the **** out of me. Utterly appalling crowd of populist jokers. Miliband is utterly spineless. His tenure as leader has been absolutely shambolic. The last 5 years have been difficult because of what they created - a fat public sector built on empty promises and the country's credit card and resulted in a totally ****ed economy. I see absolutely no evidence to suggest that if they do get back into power they won't **** it up again by wildly pouring money we don't have into the public sector to fool the idiots that vote for them and don't understand basic arithmetic.

Lib Dems... Well, I think they've been decent coalition partners, but they're very weak now. The last 5 years has not been kind on them. I dislike their tax proposals and they're offering policies that are clearly aimed at differentiating themselves, but do it in a really unappealing way.

Green. The joke party. Might as well not bother. They're literally on drugs if they think that the UK can continue to function under their policy regime.

UKIP. These socially conservative populist ****ers worry me. I've seen this movie... It doesn't end well. Labour and the Conservatives may not be perfect but trying to stir it up with a party whose economic policy is basically written on a fag packet to sound the most appealing is not a good idea. It's easy to sell a product that doesn't exist or one you have no plan for delivering on. They're not credible. They're a single issue party that's trying to be grown up and govern. Farage and his EU cronies are awful people. Their party and social policies are racist, homophobic - utterly retrograde. They're a party for people that don't pay attention to politics. It sounds great on paper until you start looking a bit deeper and realise that under the bonnet, they're an awful party that would cause more harm than good. I'd sooner labour get into power than see these tossers have any influence.

Reply 53

I think I may cry...

We have our first Scotland-wide poll for Westminster intention.
*
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/
*
IPSOS MORI
*
SNP 52%
Scottish Labour 23%
Scottish Conservatives 10%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 6%
Scottish Green Party 6%
Ukip 2%
1% support for others.
*
Gives:
57 SNP
1 Lab
1 Lib
*
On a UNS prediction.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 54

Original post by Unistudent77

I think I may cry...

We have our first Scotland-wide poll for Westminster intention.
*
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/
*
IPSOS MORI
*
SNP 52%
Scottish Labour 23%
Scottish Conservatives 10%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 6%
Scottish Green Party 6%
Ukip 2%
1% support for others.
*
Gives:
57 SNP
1 Lab
1 Lib
*
On a UNS prediction.

Interesting but I'll wait for an ICM poll myself. They tend to be pretty accurate across the UK.

Reply 55

Ggmu!

Original post by missfats

Let's just say they represent my political views vastly compared to the crap lefties such as the greens and most importantly labour.

the conservatives are my more respectable in my eyes however.

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So proud. You've made so much progress. This is good.

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Reply 56

Aph

22

Considering how left TSR is the result is looking worryingly right.

Reply 57

Original post by Aph

Considering how left TSR is the result is looking worryingly right.

Students may be liberals but they are not all socialists.

Reply 58

Aph

22

Original post by Rakas21

Students may be liberals but they are not all socialists.

Socialism is amazing. :yep:

and TSR is ment to be a leftist commie hip-fest but the Tories are winning :afraid:

Reply 59