Should I bother considering Cambridge?

1) The aim is not to get 5 offers. The aim is to get 2+ that you are happy with.

2) The probability of getting in if you don't apply = 0. The probability of getting in if you do apply > 0.

I’ve been thinking about the possibility of applying to Cambridge this year for Philosophy (depending on the grades I get in the summer obviously!) but I’m quite concerned about my GCSEs.
I missed the majority of secondary school as I was battling my chronic pain condition and other issues - to put it into perspective from y7 throughout y10 I’d be in school for a week and miss three. Y11 was my most consistent year but it was still rather sporadic.
In the end I was proud of my GCSE grades (887755543) as I thought I’d have to defer and take them next year so I wouldn’t fail everything that year, but even if I end up predicted A*AA or higher for my a-levels, would me applying to Cambridge be a waste of a space that I could fill with another uni that I’d be more likely to get into?
(btw - the 3 wasn’t in an “essential” subject, it was for music, and I made the decision to neglect it so I’d be able to catch up and revise effectively for my other subjects. I know that’s still not ideal).
Thank you in advance

Definitely apply if you're on track for those A-Level grades!!

Additionally, when you apply you really need to get onto the Extenuating circumstances form so that they are able to understand why your grades aren't as good as they should have been. It won't disadvantage your application in any way and will mean you are given fair consideration.

https://www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/applying/decisions/extenuating-circumstances-form

Cambridge looks for students that are extremely passionate about their subject and if they are teachable (open-minded)

I much prefer that there’s more of a focus on passion and excitement to learn hence why I’m dying to go all of a sudden haha

thank you both

I'd be a little bit careful with this. Just because Cambridge doesn't place a huge emphasis on GCSE results doesn't mean that they don't have any bearing on an application - and, more generally, academic attainment is still probably the most important factor in whether or not you'll be offered a place.

Oh yeah I know! I just find it more appealing that they seem to be a little more accepting, even if it’s only small, and value other things a little more. I mean if my predicted grades end up being AAA, regardless of my extenuating circumstances I’d probably not apply as I know that my academic attainment wouldn’t be good enough, which is okay and simply just fact

Cambridge don't care about GCSEs anywhere near as much as Oxford and other top unis (although they are still considered, just as a smaller part of the broad application). In addition, when you apply you get send the SAQ form where you have space to write anything that impacted your past results. Your grades are largely very good anyway, and are made even better in context. If you're predicted high enough A levels, there's no reason why you shouldn't apply for Cambridge

Remember that you can always reapply with achieved grades. Can't see the harm in going for it - depending a bit on where else you want to apply. Philosophy is not a particularly heavily subscribed course at other universities so you are not hugely reducing the chances of getting a good place elsewhere