Is Scottish independence a &#x27;good or bad&#x27; thing?

Original post by Blue Meltwater

Having grown up in Shetland, I can't imagine either of those scenarios happening. Our politicians are angling for greater autonomy, certainly, but nobody seriously wants full independence. Shetland's a bit odd in that, as far as I've perceived, it isn't particularly pro or anti-independence; it just kind of does its own thing. If Scotland did become independence I highly doubt there'd be the will to go to all the effort to stay within the EU - more likely, as I said, it'd be seen as an opportunity to boost the islands' interests.

It has however voted libdem in various guises since the mid 19th century yet they appear to have got a government they voted for

Reply 4503

Blue Meltwater

3

Original post by MatureStudent36

It has however voted libdem in various guises since the mid 19th century yet they appear to have got a government they voted for

I don't think many Liberal Democrat voters would say they have a government they voted for (which you can see from their decimation in the polls)! I can certainly testify that Alistair Carmichael, Shetland's MP, has become hugely unpopular since 2010. I'd be surprised if his vote share in 2015 doesn't drop by at least 20% or so.

Reply 4504

L i b

Original post by Blue Meltwater

I don't think many Liberal Democrat voters would say they have a government they voted for (which you can see from their decimation in the polls)! .

In all frankness, that's because a lot of people were stupid. They didn't understand what the Lib Dems stood for, and seemed to care even less. I remember in the period after the Iraq War, people were talking about the Lib Dems as if they were to the left of the Labour Party. It was absolutely bonkers. Reality had to hit them some time.

There are far fewer of those sorts in the heartlands though. Which is why I don't think they'll lose too much in the north of Scotland, the West Country and all that.

Reply 4505

Original post by Blue Meltwater

I don't think many Liberal Democrat voters would say they have a government they voted for (which you can see from their decimation in the polls)! I can certainly testify that Alistair Carmichael, Shetland's MP, has become hugely unpopular since 2010. I'd be surprised if his vote share in 2015 doesn't drop by at least 20% or so.

They're in power which is a first. And they always vote for them.

So how does that degree of identity politics play out in your mind?

Reply 4506

Blue Meltwater

3

Original post by MatureStudent36

They're in power which is a first. And they always vote for them.

So how does that degree of identity politics play out in your mind?

Yeah, but my point was that the current Westminster government we have probably bears no resemblance to the type of government most Liberal Democrat voters were hoping for in the event of the Liberal Democrats gaining power.

Scotland's differing political preferences aren't my only reason for supporting independence; but even if they were, it's worth pointing out that the Liberal Democrats are far more likely to get into government in Scotland (see 1999 and 2003), while actually having enough seats thanks to Scotland's proportional system to not merely act as rubber stamp for the majority party's policies which the people of Scotland (and Shetland) overwhelmingly rejected.

Reply 4507

Original post by Blue Meltwater

Yeah, but my point was that the current Westminster government we have probably bears no resemblance to the type of government most Liberal Democrat voters were hoping for in the event of the Liberal Democrats gaining power.

Scotland's differing political preferences aren't my only reason for supporting independence; but even if they were, it's worth pointing out that the Liberal Democrats are far more likely to get into government in Scotland (see 1999 and 2003), while actually having enough seats thanks to Scotland's proportional system to not merely act as rubber stamp for the majority party's policies which the people of Scotland (and Shetland) overwhelmingly rejected.

The present SNP government bears no resemblance to what lib dem supporters vote.

If labour gets in we get a party in Westminster that we voted for.

However having devolved power as we get to ensure that we have a party in power that addresses all of the issues that are closest to the electorates hearts.

Please don't try and spin a protest vote during a global economic crisis combined with an incredibly lack lustre Scottish labour campaign as some groundbreaking support for the SNP. Remeber they got a whole 6 MPs in the general election and the Holyrood election achieved a pitiful 50% turnout.

Reply 4508

Endless Blue

Original post by L i b

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Original post by MatureStudent36

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What do both of you make of the argument "Scotland contributes more than it receives to the UK Exchequer". (Seen in various posts/signatures)

Reply 4509

L i b

Original post by Endless Blue

What do both of you make of the argument "Scotland contributes more than it receives to the UK Exchequer". (Seen in various posts/signatures)

Well, it doesn't. We've got a deficit. A significant one. The SNP administration have tried to gloss over this fact in the past - which I think is fundamentally dishonest.

Scotland contributes a high sum to the exchequer. It's worth noting however this fluctuates and, according to Scotland Office analysis (which was never seriously challenged by the Scottish Government) it actually come out slightly less than equal to the UK average in terms of expenditure to revenue. And yes, that's including oil.

It is, of course, not protected to continue. The oft-quoted 9.6% figure the SNP use for revenue generation is, as stated in John Swinney's own analysis, protected to decline to 8.8% by 2016-17 - substantially below the expenditure level in Scotland. However if you want a genuinely concerning projection, look at the latest IFS report of the fiscal sustainability of an independent Scotland.

All this, to me, is window-dressing however. It's quite normal for a part of a country to contribute more than its fair share some years and less in others - or better off parts to contribute to worse-off parts. Although Scotland has, by my reckoning, got all its taxes and oil money spend here over recent decades, it wouldn't be surprising or any way improper if it hadn't.

It's a pretty crap argument for independence anyway. After all, I'm sure if I was to point out that Bearden, Morningside or any other wealthy part of Scotland generates more revenue than it receives back in expenditure the SNP would shout it down as self-centred rubbish.

Reply 4510

Original post by Endless Blue

What do both of you make of the argument "Scotland contributes more than it receives to the UK Exchequer". (Seen in various posts/signatures)

I think that argument is wrong on several layers. Firstly, contributions go up and down. The data used by the SNP comes from it's GERS figures. As former chief economist to the Scottish Government Proffesor Goudie says, GERS figures aren't that accurate.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/independence-economist-attacks-evidence-in-debate-1-2857358

In fact, even leaked SNP internal documentation indicates a completly different story. (Apologies for the BT link but it's teh only place I can find a copy of the original document. You can ignore the comments, but the text is still the same.)

http://b.3cdn.net/better/c1d14076ee08022eec_u9m6vd74f.pdf

Scotland does do better than most parts of the UK, however even factoring in gas and oil it doesn't run a surplus.

GERS figures also do not factor in other elements such as:_

How will Scotlands finances look with several Thousand UK Civil Servants unemployed?

How will Scotlands finances look loosing all of teh renewables subsidies we currently receive from the UK? ( We currently get about 70% of teh UK budget for renewable energy)

How will Scotlands finances look with a significant Pensions Liability?

How will Scotlands Finances look with a huge dent being made in jobs associated with the Defence industry?

How would Scotlands Finances look with the BoE not acting as lender of last resort? (You can bet that Edinburghs financial sector will be transfering operations elsewhere be it south of the border or to Frankfurt if the Euro issue comes into play)

These are just a few of many things that the SNP has assumed will not happen.

Interestingly though, even ignoring Oil and gas and apportioning that to Scotland, there's only one part of the UK that actually runs a surplus and that's London and the South East of England. They some how mange that with some of the lowest public spending in the UK, and former leader of the SNP Jim Sellars still manages to call them the English Cancer. Area's such a NE England, Wales and Northern Ireland are actually the area's being subsidised the most as we actually get the highest UK government spend per Capita due to teh Barnet Formula.

So in effect the YeSNP campaign is promising a fairer society is based as far as I can see by a greed driven desire to not share our toys with anybody else, due to somebody hijacking the 'it's our oil' mentality to get the most greedy in society to support them. As after all, we started to see support for teh SNP grow after oil was discovered.

I just wonder if this fairer society will also apply to the individual. I pay significantly more in taxes than I receive back from the state. Will they be advocating a fairer society whereby we all get exactly the same amount spent on us irrsepctive of our contributions or need.

After all, at this present moment in time, Middle class families are benefitting from Free University Education whilst poorer Working class families are having access to college education cut. What a great way of increasing the social divide by shutting routes that would enable people to work down.

(edited 10 years ago)

Reply 4511

Midlander

Original post by VladThe1mpaler

But it's true, why should another nation tell us what do do? I don't understand why this offends you?

Because England doesn't tell Scotland what to do-turning it into that kind of statement makes the debate more antagonising and divisive for no legitimate reason. Scotland receives a good deal of autonomy and extra money to do as it pleases in various areas of day to day life-if we were really telling you what to do you would have neither.

Original post by VladThe1mpaler

Why should we mention them? We don't have any strong political connections with either of their governments. Anyway, independence is really a campaign to be separated from the control of Westminster.

Wales is as left leaning as Scotland so political ties shouldn't actually be that different. More to the point, social differences between Scots and the Engl-sorry, RUK are cited as reasons to split by nationalist bigots. You may not have anything in common with someone working in the City (in fact nor do I or the vast majority of people but hey), but you will have a lot more in common with fellow Anglophobes in Wales.

We just want to have full control over our own country. This has nothing to do with being anti-english.

Then you have a funny way of showing it by still wanting the Bank of England to help bankroll Salmond-topia. As for the bit in bold, of course it doesn't-that would be why national stereotypes of English people aren't routinely cited by Yes campaigners to gather votes.

Reply 4512

Endless Blue

Did anyone see the recent Scotland Question Time episode? The audience seemed to be very imbalanced in the favour of the Yes vote. I am English so obviously the debate does not affect me like it does Scottish voters but, whilst supporting their right to vote on independence, I do hope they vote No come 2014 as on the basis of the real issues it seems to be in their best interests as well as ours. I am fond of all areas of the UK but I am worried that we may see a Yes vote next year. Does anyone have any current polling figures?

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 4513

Good bloke

Original post by Endless Blue

Does anyone have any current polling figures?

See the bottom of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

Reply 4514

Original post by Good bloke

See the bottom of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

Don't worry Endless Blue. We're not going anywhere. It may be of interest to you that Panelbase has had to stop registering people to vote on their Scottish referendum polling site as there was a move by YeSNP supporters to crowd the site to skew polling results. That's the reason why panelbase polls tend to be a bit more favourable to the YeSNP campaign.

Reply 4515

VladThe1mpaler

14

Original post by Endless Blue

Did anyone see the recent Scotland Question Time episode? The audience seemed to be very imbalanced in the favour of the Yes vote. I am English so obviously the debate does not affect me like it does Scottish voters but, whilst supporting their right to vote on independence, I do hope they vote No come 2014 as on the basis of the real issues it seems to be in their best interests as well as ours. I am fond of all areas of the UK but I am worried that we may see a Yes vote next year. Does anyone have any current polling figures?

Posted from TSR Mobile

Hmm I did think there were quite a few Yes in the audience, but I believe that overall the scottish population is largely undecided on independence right now.

Reply 4516

FinalMH

16

Original post by VladThe1mpaler

Hmm I did think there were quite a few Yes in the audience, but I believe that overall the scottish population is largely undecided on independence right now.

if you've watched any TV debate on independence most seem to be in favour of Independence.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/post-scottish-independence-union-jack-designs-1-3220455

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25205017

I don't know if it's been a slow news day, but this is just ridiculous...

(edited 10 years ago)

Original post by VladThe1mpaler

Hmm I did think there were quite a few Yes in the audience, but I believe that overall the scottish population is largely undecided on independence right now.

Fortunately we have statistics to use so we don't have to rely on what people "believe", and these statistics show that support for independence is very much a minority opinion, with usually around half of Scots voting no. We're certainly not "undecided" - this referendum is almost certainly going to end in a crushing defeat.

Reply 4518

Original post by FinalMH

if you've watched any TV debate on independence most seem to be in favour of Independence.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/post-scottish-independence-union-jack-designs-1-3220455

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25205017

I don't know if it's been a slow news day, but this is just ridiculous...

It comes around every couple of months.

Reply 4519

Midlander