Is Scottish independence a 'good or bad' thing?

Ladbrokes: Scotland 1/100 to enter currency union - 50/1 not to

Ladbrokes press release

Scotland certs for currency union

Scotland are a racing certainty to form a currency union should they vote 'yes' to independence, according to Ladbrokes.

The book is now open on the prospects of the formation of the union, should Scotland break away from the rest of the UK and it's a near-certainty at 1/100 that they keep sterling, with 50/1 the price that any other currency, including the Euro, is used.

For context, Scotland are 50/1 to win the upcoming 6 Nations while 1/100 is the price Scotland would be to beat San Marino in an international football match.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "It's about as uncompetitive as a betting contest can be. Punters would win a penny for ever pound staked on an independent Scotland sticking with sterling."

So, which one did Mr Carney favour?

He did not say directly. But given the words, “necessary foundations for a durable union”, it seems that he assumes the best option is for the Bank to become a supranational institution.

In other words, Mr Carney is closer to the position of the Scottish Government. But he was careful not to say this too explicitly.

But in a small nation, forced to live from a smaller tax base, there is more of a limit to how big state institutions can grow. Monitoring becomes more efficient, it is harder to obfuscate, so there is more transparency and accountability, and less waste. Change is easier to implement, making a nation flexible, dynamic and competitive. With fewer people, there is less of a wealth gap between those at the top and the bottom.

The evidence of history is that the free-est countries with the widest dispersal of power have always been the most prosperous and innovative.

So back to Scotland.

It now has the opportunity to enact the same legislation, taxation and regulation that other top ten countries on that list employ, following, say, the blueprint of Singapore. It already has a rich tradition in trade, finance and banking.

It has the oil.

And, with just five million people, it is small.

It has all the ingredients to be the richest country on earth – on a per capita basis. It has ‘the triple’. I can think of no other nation in the world with such a wonderful opportunity.

You’ve got a negotiation where the UK government will want to persuade the Scottish representatives that they should take on a share of debt which is the legal liability of Her Majesty’s Treasury

Dr Robertson’s team at the University of the West of Scotland spent a year, to September 2013, studying the early evening news programmes of BBC Scotland and STV.

Stories with an “anti-independence” slant outnumbered those of the pro Yes side three to two.

The BBC’s Reporting Scotland showed 272 news items that benefited the No campaign, but just 171 favourable to Yes.

STV’s early evening programme had 255 stories boosting the No side and 172 for Yes.

Newspapers often favour one political party or point of view, as is their right.

But television is different. The BBC is paid for by viewers and is governed by a Royal Charter that demands the highest standards of impartiality.

If we'd be that rich, the Southe easy would be richer if it cast aside the rest of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

So, which one did Mr Carney favour?
He did not say directly. But given the words, “necessary foundations for a durable union”, it seems that he assumes the best option is for the Bank to become a supranational institution.
In other words, Mr Carney is closer to the position of the Scottish Government. But he was careful not to say this too explicitly.

It is clear (and has been to anyone with a modicum of sense) that:

As has been learned from the euro, a currency union can only work well with either political union (as we have now, but which the Scots would be giving up) or with one state being in full command of the currency (rather like some countries' use of the US dollar, leaving the Scots with no influence, and certainly nothing approaching control, on a major factor in their economic wellbeing).

"We're assuming that there's no significant effect on the investment and production profile," Mr Chote told MPs on the Treasury Committee.

Mr Daniels said Shell is making investments that are "20-plus years in duration". To encourage investment, he stressed that the UK needs a stable tax regime. "The 2011 raid on taxes was a real disappointment and very destabilising for long-term investments in the North Sea,"

Without oil 
we perform to the average of the UK and the best of any UK region outside the South-East. A mediocre batting average that can be so much better, but not a 
bad starting point. Add energy windfalls into the equation and the opportunity to replicate Norway’s saving, albeit on a smaller scale, remains to be achieved.