prediction for today: Landslide victory for remain.
For me, watching the UK from a far, it feels like the referedum has gone like this:
- Months of remain clearly leading
- Remain get their messages a bit mixed up, and run a far to negative campaign
- Remain drops in the polls, people are taken in by the positive message of Leave
- MP Dying changes the game. It gives Remain a positive message that is equally as emotionally powerful as Remain
- Remain retake the lead in the polls
- Last few days, most undecided come out in favor of Remain
- On the day, the silent majority speak loudest, and Remain easily wins, probably 60-40 or even slightly higher.
Worth noting, at no point in that cycle do I think Leave would have ever won.. Even before the death when they were picking up poll results, for me it wasn't enough when you factor in the undecideds always swing towards the safest option. So I don't think the Death has at all changed the outcome of the election.. it has just widened the margin of victory.