Is Scottish independence more likely now and if so why?

Scotland could use sterling - it would just find it very hard to do so.

How come?

Ireland did, Guernsey does.

It would need significant reserves of sterling to pay its foreign debt on the first day of its independence. Scotland don't have those reserves.

What foriegn debt?

Completely agree. Merely pointing out the world is more of a grey zone than many of the arguments. Which I guess is why it was 55/45. A very polarising debate is far less binary than either side projects.

On the Scotlands acceptance to the EU it was opinion on both sides, with both stating their opinion as fact.

That does remind me this works the other way round too, opinions taken as fact or promises.
The 'once in a generation' statement by Salmond on the Andrew Marr show often loses the caveating The Telegraph reported at the time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11095210/Alex-Salmond-This-is-a-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-for-Scotland.html
"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."

Asked if he could pledge not to bring back another referendum if the Yes campaign does not win on Thursday, he said: "That's my view. My view is this is a once in a generation, perhaps even a once in a lifetime, opportunity for Scotland."

How come?

Ireland did, Guernsey does.

Scotland had to back its own banknotes with tangible assets , now I’m not sure if that was through precious metals or via other means . So yes it does have a large supply of sterling.

I cannot see this being other than a debate for many years, as the Tories are here until 2024, and may be the largest party after that. I expect that the Labour Party, were they even to form a government with a Confidence and Supply agreement with the SNP, would not have a referendum immediately.

Their share of UK debt obviously

I would agree to some degree that an unfortunate weight is put on these many (and there were many - from Salmond, Sturgeon and others) statements from the Scottish Government at the time on once in a generation/lifetime. It's not really the caveat that bothers me there, given that you can find many examples of it uncaveated: including in the "Scotland's Future" white paper.

Ultimately I think it's best seen as a statement of what was widely accepted as reasonable and credible.

The UK Government should really be saying "we still believe that this is a reasonable reflection of respecting the result, and will hold to that". After all, it is their decision as guarantors of the constitutional settlement, not a former or present First Minister's.


Both did slightly different things.

In terms of sterlingisation, it is probably more accurate to say that tiny microstate economies have little choice in the matter. But look at some of the research produced at the time of the 2014 referendum: economists generally found it laughable that the same judgements could apply to a state of 5 million people with a broad, developed economy.

Ireland, of course, did peg. And then it didn't. You can find plenty of details on the trade-offs they made for the peg and the difficulties they had. That is quite separate, but related, from the wider point that the Irish state lacked monetary sovereignty under the arrangement and had decisions that affected it made in London without regard to Ireland. Ultimately it's pretty instructive that they got rid of it.

Ah right. Debt taken out by HMG.

Which would surely come with their share of the central bank's £720bn sterling reserves.

I don't disagree. A generation isn't a long time, we are already 20% of the way through one.

Oh course there are downsides. But Ireland move from one currency with no regard to Ireland to one where there is minimal regard. I didnt mean Scotland would maintain Sterlingisation/peg for more than the 75 years Ireland did.

I think it'd be disingenuous to suggest the BoE pays much regard to Scotland when making decisions today anyway - just as it doesnt pay much attention to Yorkshire. So I'm not sure what difference it'd make anyhow.

I fear Scottish Independence more than I have at any time since 2014 but I don’t think it’s yet probable. Polls which include DK (voters who would likely vote against change on the day) still have the raw support at 46-50% and I think there’s at least some anti-Tory element in there which might not be enough to put an x in the box in the cold and hard reality of a ballot box. Until about a year ago the SNP-Green alliance of separatists looked like losing rather than gaining support and I’m not sure COVID is a game changer yet on a permanent basis.

On the matter of a referendum that’s much more complex. Short of a grand alliance beyond even Con-Lib (really needs lab too but won’t work politically and they can’t be trusted on the union) the SNP likely get 50%+ of the vote and that’s a very strong mandate. The political reality is that the Tories might be able to push it beyond 2024 (helps them in the election too since Labour May need the SNP and here in the north selling out the union is selling out your country) but they may have to allow a referendum in 2024/2025.

It is vital right now however that Boris and Davey get together and stand down in the constituencies where it will make a difference in May.