The polls are wrong, Labour set to lose 90 seats says Party blog...

It is not just that.

Social media is a left wing echo chamber. Like the TV debate where every asinine comment from Corby was greeted with huge whoops and cheers from the audience. It is hard not to be influenced subliminally.

But those forums aren't representative of the people who will actually decide this election. They don't tweet their pearls of wisdom, or boo, hiss and shout down those they disagree with on Question Time. They just keep keep their counsel and then go and vote Tory in the Polling Station. In their millions.

Why would that explain a polling difference though, rather than merely popular misperception (and why would that have changed only in the past few weeks)?

Posted from TSR Mobile

You are the foolish one.

This bet is like seeing a hundred pounds lying in the street and not bending to pick it up in case you do your back in. Seriously, I do a lot of betting and this is that rare thing, a total gimme.

If you think the Tories are not going to get a majority you are living in cloud cuckoo land. Sorry...

Check out the front pages of the Sun, the Mail, the Express, today.

They will tell you what the voters who are going to decide this election think.

TSR is such a bubble as was said earlier on this thread.

And if you think this demographic is going to have any impact, check out the opinion poll in today's FT showing how few of this age range is going to vote compared to the old.

OK, unlike you I don't have a crystal ball and am not going to be so sure of the result, and it's not delusional to think the Tories will not get a majority, especially after the YouGov's model (which got the EU Referendum result right) now predicting a hung parliament. Why should I check out the Sun/Mail etc. They are all tabloid newspapers and are obviously biased against Labour...

You should read those newspapers because they are read and inwardly absorbed by swing voters. Those who will decide.

If you don't read them, you won't know what they are thinking.

And four days after a terrorist outrage, one day before an election, they are splashing page after page on Corbyn's support for Islamist "hate mobs" in rallies years ago. Pictures of him with his little beard, pictures of Anjem Choudary at the same rally with his big beard. Corbyn is soft on Islam, has voted against every ati terror measure ever suggested, ya de ya de ya...

Have you no sense of the mood of this country? No touch, no feel? Do you so live in a Corby bubble???

I forgot to ask, is the implication of your post here that you are predicting a result more in tune with the early campaign polling averages (15-20% lead).

I myself see a strong chance that the Tories will have their strongest result since 59 (46.5% needed) but suspect Labour will be too strong to allow the largest margin since 31 (14.9% needed). I don't think Labour will beat Blair 05 (35.1% or less needed).

Tories like David Davis also voted against those bills...

You should read those newspapers because they are read and inwardly absorbed by swing voters. Those who will decide.

If you don't read them, you won't know what they are thinking.

And four days after a terrorist outrage, one day before an election, they are splashing page after page on Corbyn's support for Islamist "hate mobs" in rallies years ago. Pictures of him with his little beard, pictures of Anjem Choudary at the same rally with his big beard. Corbyn is soft on Islam, has voted against every ati terror measure ever suggested, ya de ya de ya...

Have you no sense of the mood of this country? No touch, no feel? Do you so live in a Corby bubble???

My view is that if those things matter to you, you weren't going to vote Corbyn last Friday.

I think there has only been one true late swing in my lifetime in 1992. I don't even think Peter Bonetti cost Harold Wilson the 1970 election

Both results were within the margin of error, and polls were wrong in US election case as they were on a national basis rather than in the tightly run areas which swung the election to trump (polls said Clinton 48, Trump 44,results were Clinton 48 Trump 46). Only the 2015 election was actually badly wrong and methods have been heavily adjusted.

Polls have consistently, regardless of methodology underestimated the centre-right vote. Most methodologies differ in how they allocate "don't knows". This takes no account of people who have disengaged entirely from politics because they don't want a couple of their noisy friends or relatives calling them scum or vile on facebook.

As @generallee said above - there are millions of them. For every noisy student, or every Trot on facebook, or every person at a Stop the West rally, there are five people in provincial England, quietly going about their lives who will probably vote Conservative.

Provincial England is irrelevant, it's the suburban tory that matters.

Posted from TSR Mobile

I am talking about the general culture in which the commentariat swim before they opine.

The polls are pretty straightforward. All of them (apart from You Gov) support my argument, they just vary in the extent of the Tory majority.

Provincial England is long gone, true.

The London suburbs will be a big deal - the ones with high Jewish populations are gone for Corbyn - some of the others will depend on Lib Dem or Green numbers

Even at 2/9 it is free money.

I put £400 on Monday at 1/4. 25% return on your money in four days with zero risk. A hundred notes out of thin air...