It's official. Medicine applicants rose by 21% this year compared to last.

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ecolier
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Dexter345
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Does it also include dental applicants?
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ecolier
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(Original post by Dexter345)
Does it also include dental applicants?
No, I don't think so.
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JohnnyHK
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(Original post by ecolier)
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Scary stats!

Do you know what the estimated total number of Medicine places on offer is in this current cycle?
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Anonymous17!
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Well, glad I don’t apply this year :lol: I suppose the rise is due to a number of factors, but I like to thing CAGs and what happened this summer has something to do with it. A lot of people were still able to keep their offers and defer them for 2021 entry, but an equally large portion of people missed out on offers and their medical schools didn’t honour them for 2021. So those people are applying, there’s the usual influx of applications from current year 13’s and then applications form people doing gap years etc. But wow, I wasn’t expecting it to rise that much.
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The RAR
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So is this bad or good? Surely having more doctors is a good thing no?
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Dexter345
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(Original post by The RAR)
So is this bad or good? Surely having more doctors is a good thing no?
Number of places have probably only increased by a small amount
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issaaccount
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(Original post by Anonymous17!)
Well, glad I don’t apply this year :lol: I suppose the rise is due to a number of factors, but I like to thing CAGs and what happened this summer has something to do with it. A lot of people were still able to keep their offers and defer them for 2021 entry, but an equally large portion of people missed out on offers and their medical schools didn’t honour them for 2021. So those people are applying, there’s the usual influx of applications from current year 13’s and then applications form people doing gap years etc. But wow, I wasn’t expecting it to rise that much.
due to people deferring, will there be fewer seats available for year 13s applying this year?
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ForestCat
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(Original post by The RAR)
So is this bad or good? Surely having more doctors is a good thing no?
It’s what happens at the other end when all the extra numbers graduate
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nexttime
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So big increase in reapplicants as was fairly predictable, but increase is actually mainly driven by new applicants. Very interesting.
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Medicine_is_hard
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Approx how many places are there expected to be?
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nexttime
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(Original post by JohnnyHK)
Scary stats!

Do you know what the estimated total number of Medicine places on offer is in this current cycle?
(Original post by Medicine_is_hard)
Approx how many places are there expected to be?
We're in the middle of a transition so its hard to tell exactly, but its likely to be around Edit: 9,300 (7000 figure was only England), very approximately.
(Original post by issaaccount)
due to people deferring, will there be fewer seats available for year 13s applying this year?
I don't think that will be a big factor.
Last edited by nexttime; 1 month ago
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JohnnyHK
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(Original post by nexttime)
We're in the middle of a transition so its hard to tell exactly, but its likely to be around 7,000, very approximately.

I don't think that will be a big factor.
7,000 - so that means only around 25% of applicants will get a spot this year..... :afraid:
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nexttime
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(Original post by JohnnyHK)
7,000 - so that means only around 25% of applicants will get a spot this year..... :afraid:
Seems about right yes. Historically that number has been around 40%, but with applicants increasing.. yep.

Not every single applicant will have used all 4 choices for medicine, and there's always a certain number of withdrawals or people who don't do the compulsory application stuff (like UCAT or having wrong A-levels), so if you do all those things your chances will be slightly better.

There are a significantly higher number of people who apply to places where they never stood a chance of getting in (like applying to Oxford/Cardiff with poor GCSEs, for example), so if you do your basic research you can increase chances further. But that's a whole other topic.

But yeah: pretty tough. Definitely need to have a plan B prepared.
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VoteLabour
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This is very interesting, especially given I imagine a lot more people have deferred places confirmed this year than previous years. Overall, I feel for potential medics applying this year.
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Orlando22
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Just thinking about this and trying to get my head around the implications.

I think mostly, additional applicants make it harder to get an interview - if you have an interview then the competition ratios are probably the same as they are normally.

So it's the application to interview ratio that has become more of an issue. An the interview to offer ratio is likely to stay the same?

I.e a medical school won't interview 20% more people just because there are 20% more applicants. If they select for interview using a score, or ranking by UCAT score, these scores will effectively be driven upwards.

Maybe places like Keele, using the R&R form are different from the above though?
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Uzair63
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(Original post by Orlando22)
Just thinking about this and trying to get my head around the implications.

I think mostly, additional applicants make it harder to get an interview - if you have an interview then the competition ratios are probably the same as they are normally.

So it's the application to interview ratio that has become more of an issue. An the interview to offer ratio is likely to stay the same?

I.e a medical school won't interview 20% more people just because there are 20% more applicants. If they select for interview using a score, or ranking by UCAT score, these scores will effectively be driven upwards.

Maybe places like Keele, using the R&R form are different from the above though?
Yh I agree, I just see the selection process of interviews to increase now Eg Higher UCAT or BMAT scores needed.

The interview ratio will probably remain the same, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Unis like Plymouth who already published their cut off.
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ecolier
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(Original post by JohnnyHK)
Scary stats!

Do you know what the estimated total number of Medicine places on offer is in this current cycle?
Not yet, I don't think even the med schools know (it depends on government funding and the co-ordination of Unis department and the Department of Health).

(Original post by Anonymous17!)
Well, glad I don’t apply this year :lol: I suppose the rise is due to a number of factors, but I like to thing CAGs and what happened this summer has something to do with it. A lot of people were still able to keep their offers and defer them for 2021 entry, but an equally large portion of people missed out on offers and their medical schools didn’t honour them for 2021. So those people are applying, there’s the usual influx of applications from current year 13’s and then applications form people doing gap years etc. But wow, I wasn’t expecting it to rise that much.
Indeed, it's not going to be easy.

(Original post by The RAR)
So is this bad or good? Surely having more doctors is a good thing no?
Just because people applied doesn't mean there will be spaces. And even if med schools make more space (and they can't really, there's only a finite number of clinical tutors, wards, hospitals, GPs etc.) we can't fund enough FY1 doctor posts in 5 years' time to receive these grads.

(Original post by Dexter345)
Number of places have probably only increased by a small amount
Yes, it's very unlikely med school place numbers will also rise by 20%.

(Original post by issaaccount)
due to people deferring, will there be fewer seats available for year 13s applying this year?
Maybe, but I think it'd be around the same as last year (remember that med school places have been increasing year-on-year, planned by the government).

(Original post by ForestCat)
It’s what happens at the other end when all the extra numbers graduate
Exactly.

(Original post by Medicine_is_hard)
Approx how many places are there expected to be?
Don't know yet.

(Original post by JohnnyHK)
7,000 - so that means only around 25% of applicants will get a spot this year..... :afraid:
That's always been the case. Med school has always been very competitive, even last year it's something like 30% or something if you word it like that.

(Original post by VoteLabour)
This is very interesting, especially given I imagine a lot more people have deferred places confirmed this year than previous years. Overall, I feel for potential medics applying this year.
:sadnod:

(Original post by candidate415)
Medicine should be graduate-entry only, i believe. I wonder how many people would still be motivated into studying medicine if they were required to sit a bachelors degree beforehand. The number of applicants per cycle would definitely reduce
I agree with you, but plenty of people don't. https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6551510

(Original post by Orlando22)
Just thinking about this and trying to get my head around the implications.

I think mostly, additional applicants make it harder to get an interview - if you have an interview then the competition ratios are probably the same as they are normally...
Not necessarily - med schools could decide the bottleneck to be pre-interview or the interview. We can't say that for sure.
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maven2k
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Is this because of CAG's grades? If so, not surprised really
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999tigger
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So the reasons are what?
Employment prospects?
Job security?
Status and respect in the community plus with marriage dating prospects?
Earning potential.
Reapplies from last years genius generation?
Recession?
More medical places?
TSR careers marketing?
Other careers becoming even more competitive?
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