Donald Trump

You're assuming that his message will remain constant, it won't, he will drop the wall and banning Muslims, they're vote losers for the moderates, impossible to do, and his band wagon will lose few people from it, he is already toning back the torture too. If you listen to him speak on various occasions he knows exactly what to say and that message changes state to state, even contradicting earlier statements.

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Opps. Forgot to mention I meant the bastardised, American, form of 'liberalism'.

Maybe you should educated yourself on politics. It's not American and it is the original form of liberalism, what is questionable as a form of liberalism the is modern self proclaimed "progressive" liberalism.

he will drop the wall and banning Muslims...he knows exactly what to say and that message changes state to state, even contradicting earlier statements.

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Another reason why, when the primaries are over, Clinton will tear him to pieces. He's been so focused on the short term numbers, he's set himself up to fail.

I agree with what Obama just said. People are excited about Donald Trump at the moment because he's "out there", but as soon as the primaries are over, people are going to stop thinking about who they want to go for a beer with and instead who they want running their country. Be realistic, the majority of Americans aren't going to vote for someone on the basis that he's okay with torturing infants and building the Great Wall of El Paso. I think Clinton will be next president. Shame it's not Bernie Sanders to be honest. Although I'm certain that the next president won't be slang for Fart.

Anyone but Shillary.

Obama.

Read all of the replies I don't think that he'll win, he's just a clown without the make-up :P

Not when you take out the superdelegates

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Even then she has a majority of delegates, as opposed to Trump's plurality. You can critique the methodology for whatever models but they all seem to agree that Clinton has a higher win probability than Trump at this point (although both are fairly high.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination

The facts that the GOP primary has multiple candidates, and that Trump has mainstream Republicans and super PACs trying to contrive a way not to nominate him makes it far more volatile than the Democrat primary, which is presumptively locked up.

This is also the reason the Democrats and the Clinton camp aren't in full campaign mode against Trump or anywhere close to it at this point. Like the mainstream Republicans they probably see him as unelectable and don't want to harm his chances of winning the nomination.

The thing is that without the superdelegates it brings it down to 670 plays 467, but states also have to be considered, particularly who is going to win them and how delegates are distributed. A lot of what has come so far is where Clinton is expected to do better, where Bernie if expected to do better is still largely to come.

There is the same to a lesser extent with the GOP given there have been surprises, but with candidates dropping out of otherwise faltering, and where is still too come, Trump is dominant. There are a bunch of states in the North West without recent data, but most other states have Trump winning, basically all of the East and mid west, California is close, most mountain states are Trump. Even a pro rubio PAC is giving Trump Florida. Trump should dominate tomorrow. Trump should win everything or be a very close second next week too. He would assist

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Did you read the 538 link? It takes into account exactly what you said and still finds that Hillary is further ahead. I'm not saying it's perfectly quantifiable, but it's probably more or less as close as you can get. The reason I posted the predictwise links was because betting markets are a very holistic way to predict results, insofar as they take everything into account that a human bettor does. Again, they find that Clinton is dominating to a far greater extent than Trump.

If Trump and Sanders become the nominees, ex New York mayor Bloomberg has said he'll join the race; that might split the anti-Trump voters and potentially allow him (Trump) in.

Fortunately, it appears Clinton will win the demorcrat nomination, so she'll probably win the presidential election

Tablet didn't like most of the links, and reading the article it really does demonstrate how thick the non whites are.