Next Tory leader?

Betting odds are between

Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
Dominic Raab

Boris would win heavily amongst grassroots but is unlikely to get enough support from his colleagues. Despite itching to be the ones to have the first BAME party leader I’d be surprised if Javid was elected (he’s a remainer and a Arab) that leaves the neocons Gove and Raab. I imagine they both agree on pretty much everything apart that Gove seems to favour a softer brexit.

I think Gove would have more suppprt from Colleagues but that Raab may have more grassroots support.

Thoughts?

Reply 1

Davij 038 II

OP

7

Corbyn vs Gove

Hezbollah Corbyn vs Zionist Gove.

It would be worth seeing Gove lose just to see @Rakas21 go full on Pinochet 😂

Reply 2

DrMikeHuntHertz

16

While Mogg would be best, Boris is probably more realistic.

Reply 3

Andrew97

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

20

Geoffrey Cox, just for him and Bercow at Pmqs

Reply 4

HoldThisL

21

Jeremy Hunt, whom I will be voting for should he stand for leader.

Reply 5

username4540078

16

For a party that claims to value merit, ability and hard work, they have some exceptionally limited characters at the top.

I'd go for Chris Grayling.

Reply 6

Davij 038 II

OP

7

Original post by Trotsky's Iceaxe

I'd go for Chris Grayling.

I hope you’re trolling.

Reply 7

username4540078

16

Original post by Davij 038 II

I hope you’re trolling.

Of course.

But that soneone of such stunted aptitude is a minister says a lot about the current state of the Conservative party.

Reply 8

username1148663

21

It depends who puts themselves forward.

As someone mentioned earlier it’s a two part election first by MP’s down to two candidates then the membership chooses from the two.

Whilst Boris is apparently popular with the membership he is unpopular in the party.

My personal favourite would be Mogg but I think a realistic favourite among both MP’s and members would be Davis

Reply 9

Rakas21

21

Original post by Davij 038 II

Betting odds are between

Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
Dominic Raab

Boris would win heavily amongst grassroots but is unlikely to get enough support from his colleagues. Despite itching to be the ones to have the first BAME party leader I’d be surprised if Javid was elected (he’s a remainer and a Arab) that leaves the neocons Gove and Raab. I imagine they both agree on pretty much everything apart that Gove seems to favour a softer brexit.

I think Gove would have more suppprt from Colleagues but that Raab may have more grassroots support.

Thoughts?

Although as a cockroach we should not rule out May surviving i think you can basically split the Tories into 4 with two clear favourates among mp's but the members complicating matters.

Remoaners - Probably Rudd, probably only has 30 mp's if that

Moderates/remainers/pragmatists - Probably Hunt (javid and hammond the outsiders) these are basically the mayites and probably the second largest group of 100 mp's plus.

Moderates/leavers/pragmatists - Gove/Raab/Boris, while not a majority of the cabinet this group is a majority of Tory mp's with over 100 members.

ERG/Ultra - mogg, while a growing part of the party (but a distant third now) these mp's will be vital in terms of whether they unify and go to the membership with one candidate or whether they back a moderate leaver.

My personal expectation is Hunt vs Gove. While Gove will have an early lead it is worth saying that on every occasion in the past century that the Tories have made an incumbent leadership change it has gone to the Chancellor or Prime Minster (bar May).

Not being one to go against a centuries worth of analogues, my money would be on Hunt.

Reply 10

londonmyst

19

Original post by Davij 038 II

Despite itching to be the ones to have the first BAME party leader I’d be surprised if Javid was elected (he’s a remainer and a Arab)

Why are you saying that the Home Secretary is "a Arab"?
He is a uk citizen of asian descent born in Lancashire.

Reply 11

username4501410

18

Original post by DrMikeHuntHertz

While Mogg would be best, Boris is probably more realistic.

Did you just say mogg would be best? The guy who lives in the 1800s

Reply 12

Davij 038 II

OP

7

Original post by londonmyst

Why are you saying that the Home Secretary is "a Arab"?
He is a uk citizen of asian descent born in Lancashire.

That’s what I said, just a lot more PC and waffle.

Dogs, stables and horses come to mind

Reply 13

Davij 038 II

OP

7

Original post by Rakas21

Although as a cockroach we should not rule out May surviving i think you can basically split the Tories into 4 with two clear favourates among mp's but the members complicating matters.

Remoaners - Probably Rudd, probably only has 30 mp's if that

Moderates/remainers/pragmatists - Probably Hunt (javid and hammond the outsiders) these are basically the mayites and probably the second largest group of 100 mp's plus.

Moderates/leavers/pragmatists - Gove/Raab/Boris, while not a majority of the cabinet this group is a majority of Tory mp's with over 100 members.

ERG/Ultra - mogg, while a growing part of the party (but a distant third now) these mp's will be vital in terms of whether they unify and go to the membership with one candidate or whether they back a moderate leaver.

My personal expectation is Hunt vs Gove. While Gove will have an early lead it is worth saying that on every occasion in the past century that the Tories have made an incumbent leadership change it has gone to the Chancellor or Prime Minster (bar May).

Not being one to go against a centuries worth of analogues, my money would be on Hunt.

As low as my expectations are I can’t see them choosing Hunt, who is about as popular as Abu Hamza. Hammond is more likely although I highly doubt it. That leaves Sajid and Gove as the big hitters of the cabinet. Liz Truss is also mentioned a lot but she seems very light weight.

I am Almost certain it will be between someone in cabinet and someone outside but with cabinet experience so basically Boris or Raab vs Gove etc

Reply 14

hewgcrusty

12

I would love to see Jeremy Hunt delivering a Patrick Bateman-esque monologue about the world’s problems - he would probably say it with even less emotion