Will the U.K. get a deal before Christmas Watch

richard10012
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Every week I read in the paper that a deal is close then something happens mid week and at the moment it look like a no deal is happening.
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ByEeek
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I can't help but feel that getting a deal is kind of irrelevant. The cabinet have to agree on any deal May brings back before it then goes to parliament. Given the simple fact that there is no single deal that will satisfy all, most or even some, it is hard to see how anyone will be prepared to agree on anything.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by richard10012)
Every week I read in the paper that a deal is close then something happens mid week and at the moment it look like a no deal is happening.
The simple answer is yes, primarily because the deal has to be ratified and that means it has to be agreed by months end.

In addition 'a' deal has been ready for a month or so, it's just not been accepted by the cabinet.
(Original post by ByEeek)
I can't help but feel that getting a deal is kind of irrelevant. The cabinet have to agree on any deal May brings back before it then goes to parliament. Given the simple fact that there is no single deal that will satisfy all, most or even some, it is hard to see how anyone will be prepared to agree on anything.
As much as i would like the proposed deal to be rejected by cabinet, it is highly likely that many will cave, there are simply too many yes men who seek power.

What happens afterward is the more dificult question. It essentially boils down to a choixe between a general election or labour choosing not to partake in the most important vote for a generation.
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DrMikeHuntHertz
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There will be no deal.
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akbar0123
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“It’ll all be over before Christmas”
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As much as i would like the proposed deal to be rejected by cabinet
Could you explain why a hard Brexit is a good thing? Yes, I understand that we get our sovereignty back and the opportunity in 10+ years to finally get deals with large trading countries like Ghana, but I can't see anything positive about it. Why are people still calling for something just about everyone with any form of vested interest in the EU is against. Why is a catastrophe a good thing?
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Could you explain why a hard Brexit is a good thing? Yes, I understand that we get our sovereignty back and the opportunity in 10+ years to finally get deals with large trading countries like Ghana, but I can't see anything positive about it. Why are people still calling for something just about everyone with any form of vested interest in the EU is against. Why is a catastrophe a good thing?
Prefer the Canada model which May proposed herself initially. Keeps Brexiteers happy and remainers happy.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by random_matt)
Prefer the Canada model which May proposed herself initially. Keeps Brexiteers happy and remainers happy.
But CETA took 7 years to negotiate and started from a position of nothing. It will come into full force after another 7 years. We have everything right now. I still don't understand why some want nothing.
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
But CETA took 7 years to negotiate and started from a position of nothing. It will come into full force after another 7 years. We have everything right now. I still don't understand why some want nothing.
We will say five for arguments sake, remainers would be happy for a five year transition.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by random_matt)
We will say five for arguments sake, remainers would be happy for a five year transition.
Why do you say 5 when it took 7 to negotiate the Canadian deal? This is the problem I have with Brexiteers. They are basically making it up, suggesting that it is easy and that the end goal will be paved with gold. Wake up and smell the coffee. We would be better off under WTO than CETA and that is very bad compared to what we have now. I don't think Brexiteers fully understand just how good we have it.

CETA rules would effectively require companies trading in certain goods with the EU to just stop, shut up shop and sack everyone. Why is that a good thing?
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why do you say 5 when it took 7 to negotiate the Canadian deal? This is the problem I have with Brexiteers. They are basically making it up, suggesting that it is easy and that the end goal will be paved with gold. Wake up and smell the coffee. We would be better off under WTO than CETA and that is very bad compared to what we have now. I don't think Brexiteers fully understand just how good we have it.
Join politics then, but I promise you this, the fudged crap May has now is worse than a no deal.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by random_matt)
Join politics then, but I promise you this, the fudged crap May has now is worse than a no deal.
Well it is worse than the current deal we have. All she has negotiated is the next 2 years. There is time to screw things up (in favour of hard Brexiteers) even more in the future.

Why is a hard Brexit a good thing? Other than sovereignty which is pretty worthless on its own and trade deals that might take effect in 10 - 15 years time, why is a hard Brexit so desirable?
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Well it is worse than the current deal we have. All she has negotiated is the next 2 years. There is time to screw things up (in favour of hard Brexiteers) even more in the future.

Why is a hard Brexit a good thing? Other than sovereignty which is pretty worthless on its own and trade deals that might take effect in 10 - 15 years time, why is a hard Brexit so desirable?
Sovereignty is enough for plenty of people.
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StriderHort
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why is a hard Brexit a good thing? Other than sovereignty which is pretty worthless on its own and trade deals that might take effect in 10 - 15 years time, why is a hard Brexit so desirable?
Trolling, more or less.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Could you explain why a hard Brexit is a good thing? Yes, I understand that we get our sovereignty back and the opportunity in 10+ years to finally get deals with large trading countries like Ghana, but I can't see anything positive about it. Why are people still calling for something just about everyone with any form of vested interest in the EU is against. Why is a catastrophe a good thing?
Well i primarily voted for sovereignty and because from research of the treasury and IMF reports i felt the economic effects would be managable. Remmeber that the 8% hit to 2030 in the worst case is relative to forecast growth and spread over 12 years, it is a forecast for average growth of 1.8% rather than 2.2%. I find the notion that we are subject to the juristiction of a foreign court to be offensive, i am not European. I am also alarmed at their attitude towards polluting the continent with the third world willfully.

But more specifically i don't support being part of CAP, the CFP, EU state aid rules or the ECHR and i am confident that we can thrive alone.

Your definition of catastrophe is hyperbole and there's little evidence that since we already have equivelance a future deal with them will take as long as say Canada.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Well i primarily voted for sovereignty and because from research of the treasury and IMF reports i felt the economic effects would be managable. Remmeber that the 8% hit to 2030 in the worst case is relative to forecast growth and spread over 12 years, it is a forecast for average growth of 1.8% rather than 2.2%. I find the notion that we are subject to the juristiction of a foreign court to be offensive, i am not European. I am also alarmed at their attitude towards polluting the continent with the third world willfully.

But more specifically i don't support being part of CAP, the CFP, EU state aid rules or the ECHR and i am confident that we can thrive alone.

Your definition of catastrophe is hyperbole and there's little evidence that since we already have equivelance a future deal with them will take as long as say Canada.
The cries of catastrophe are hyperbole indeed, there is no way of correctly predicting exactly what the economy will be doing next month let alone in 12 years time, there is also no way to justifiably say that our economy would be doing any better right now had we voted to remain in 2016, there are simply too many outside influences.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ColinDent)
The cries of catastrophe are hyperbole indeed, there is no way of correctly predicting exactly what the economy will be doing next month let alone in 12 years time, there is also no way to justifiably say that our economy would be doing any better right now had we voted to remain in 2016, there are simply too many outside influences.
Well strictly speaking we can reasonably judge that some damage has occured based on economic trends (sharp currency depreciation and a lower rate of investment) but yes, you are correct that catastrophe is hyperbole.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Well strictly speaking we can reasonably judge that some damage has occured based on economic trends (sharp currency depreciation and a lower rate of investment) but yes, you are correct that catastrophe is hyperbole.
There are other outside influences though, like the trade war between US and China, indeed all of the uncertainty with Mr Trump around has likely had some effect on all economies, also the OPEC countries limiting production and the Russians holding Germany to ransom over oil all have a widespread negative effect.
Whilst it can't be denied there was a drop in the value of the pound that has helped with exports, on the other hand electric, gas and petrol providers have certainly made hay in the confusion.
All these kinds of variables mean that there is no accurate way of saying exactly where we would be economically right now if we had voted to remain, we might have been better off but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we could be in about the same place.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ColinDent)
There are other outside influences though, like the trade war between US and China, indeed all of the uncertainty with Mr Trump around has likely had some effect on all economies, also the OPEC countries limiting production and the Russians holding Germany to ransom over oil all have a widespread negative effect.
Whilst it can't be denied there was a drop in the value of the pound that has helped with exports, on the other hand electric, gas and petrol providers have certainly made hay in the confusion.
All these kinds of variables mean that there is no accurate way of saying exactly where we would be economically right now if we had voted to remain, we might have been better off but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we could be in about the same place.
Well to be fair i tend to disagree with that and back the ons and obr. I'm a Brexiteer but there's relatively clear evidence that it has hit GDP by 0.5-1% for the last two years based on the fall in business investment since the referendum and PMI data from the manufacturing sector in the midst of no significant change to global growth as yet. We must remain objective even as Brexit men.

Equally though this deal (not that i especially approve of it) should unlock said investment and i'd look for both sterling appreciation and improved economic growth through 2019.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by DrMikeHuntHertz)
There will be no deal.
Oh, there'll be a deal. It's just a question of whether it'll be before the deadline, or after we've had a few weeks of chaos in April and May and the EU feel they've made an example of us enough.
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