Will the CCP collapse anytime soon?
Among recent news it seems the Chinese economy is starting to go downhill.
Just wanted to know other people's opinions on if the Authoritarian Government will collapse and even lead to a more democratic one or whether the Authoritarian Government will just become more stricter and oppressive.
Just wanted to know other people's opinions on if the Authoritarian Government will collapse and even lead to a more democratic one or whether the Authoritarian Government will just become more stricter and oppressive.
Unlikely to come anywhere near collapse before 2035.
That said, since the pandemic the combination of powerful socio-economic challenges faced by the CCP and factors important to the lives of China's affluent but least politically engaged members of the population should not be underestimated by anyone.
Economic strife, enforcement of the social credit system, covid restrictions coming & going, low level obstructivism targeting unmarried mothers & gay professionals, interfering with taiwan/hong kong/north korea, spending very large sums on overseas activities connected with foreign unis, attempting to buy influence with overseas governments, harsh crackdowns against journalists/government & medical profession whistleblowers/students/members of Falun Gong.
All of these do have the collective power to ignite so much fury within the majority of china's mainland population that the almost complete collapse of CCP will occur within a decade.
That said, since the pandemic the combination of powerful socio-economic challenges faced by the CCP and factors important to the lives of China's affluent but least politically engaged members of the population should not be underestimated by anyone.
Economic strife, enforcement of the social credit system, covid restrictions coming & going, low level obstructivism targeting unmarried mothers & gay professionals, interfering with taiwan/hong kong/north korea, spending very large sums on overseas activities connected with foreign unis, attempting to buy influence with overseas governments, harsh crackdowns against journalists/government & medical profession whistleblowers/students/members of Falun Gong.
All of these do have the collective power to ignite so much fury within the majority of china's mainland population that the almost complete collapse of CCP will occur within a decade.
Yeah because our economy is doing just great. 
As in, within the near future? No. Within the next couple decades? Maybe, that's much harder to predict. Absolutely anything could happen in that time frame.
Please note that states do not just collapse overnight. The media exaggerates how bad the situation is. It takes decades of instability and decline for a once-powerful regime to collapse in its totality, after which it is likely to be followed by a quick succession of unstable or failed states, before a new order finds equilibrium and brings the region to stability once more.
Please note that states do not just collapse overnight. The media exaggerates how bad the situation is. It takes decades of instability and decline for a once-powerful regime to collapse in its totality, after which it is likely to be followed by a quick succession of unstable or failed states, before a new order finds equilibrium and brings the region to stability once more.
Original post by StriderHort
Yeah because our economy is doing just great.
I suppose the big difference is we can get the change desired in that situation relatively easily. Blame a government and the prime minister gets the boot or there is a big swing at the next election. What do they do in China?
Doubt it, theyve existed through far far worse events than are currently happening. If they survived exterminating a fair whack of their population in the cultural revolution then this is a drop in the bucket.
Bit of a shame, theyre an evil outfit and the leadership deserve nothing more than a 7.62 but i doubt theyre going anywhere any time soon. Not least because of their barbarism and complete happiness to kill anyone who stands against them.
Bit of a shame, theyre an evil outfit and the leadership deserve nothing more than a 7.62 but i doubt theyre going anywhere any time soon. Not least because of their barbarism and complete happiness to kill anyone who stands against them.
Original post by ArgonYttriumAN
Among recent news it seems the Chinese economy is starting to go downhill.
Just wanted to know other people's opinions on if the Authoritarian Government will collapse and even lead to a more democratic one or whether the Authoritarian Government will just become more stricter and oppressive.
Just wanted to know other people's opinions on if the Authoritarian Government will collapse and even lead to a more democratic one or whether the Authoritarian Government will just become more stricter and oppressive.
Unlikely anytime soon.
People have happily accepted Xi removing the prior informal term limit and China is doing a reasonable job of avoiding the middle income trap. It has a decent and innovative service sector and its population has only just peaked. It can also invade some sorrounding areas without much chance of losing for nationalism.
As Russia and eastern europe shows, the extent to which a transition to market democracy is likely depends on the extent to which the west cuddles upto the collapsed China Vs fears it and keeps it a distance. There's nothing fundamental in Chinese culture that is inherent to democracy.
Original post by Rakas21
Unlikely anytime soon.
People have happily accepted Xi removing the prior informal term limit and China is doing a reasonable job of avoiding the middle income trap. It has a decent and innovative service sector and its population has only just peaked. It can also invade some sorrounding areas without much chance of losing for nationalism.
As Russia and eastern europe shows, the extent to which a transition to market democracy is likely depends on the extent to which the west cuddles upto the collapsed China Vs fears it and keeps it a distance. There's nothing fundamental in Chinese culture that is inherent to democracy.
People have happily accepted Xi removing the prior informal term limit and China is doing a reasonable job of avoiding the middle income trap. It has a decent and innovative service sector and its population has only just peaked. It can also invade some sorrounding areas without much chance of losing for nationalism.
As Russia and eastern europe shows, the extent to which a transition to market democracy is likely depends on the extent to which the west cuddles upto the collapsed China Vs fears it and keeps it a distance. There's nothing fundamental in Chinese culture that is inherent to democracy.
Chinese people didn't uprise when Xi remove the term-limit, doesn't mean that they accepted 'happily', does it?
Really, middle income trap's gone? That's not like the worry Premier K Q Li repeatedly expressed recently?
'Decent and innovative service sector'?! Really don't understand the ground for this judgement. Grateful if more info could be provided.
'Population has only just peaked'... What does matter isn't the absolute number of population, but the age of them. Started from years ago, its ageing problem is more and more obvious and lack of young population to sustain its further development similar to the force decades ago?
Well... whether the authoritarian rule will be collapsed soon is a big question I am not able to respond, but posts here draw me puzzle of some understanding of China nowadays. Hope to learn more from here in due course. Thanks!
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