As someone who has been raised to believe in God..
Every day in life you come across paths in the form of choices you have to make, i.e What are you going to do today to make you a better person, or reach your goals..? And, as it's a path, each different path you take leads to different outcomes, like what opportunities you get, how successful you are. Or, you can create your own path and go and use it for evil, or good.
So yes, you do have free will. No force is pushing you down a particular path. You're the one capable of doing whatever needs to be done to reach whatever path.
In which case yes, God knows which path you will take. He's not going to stop you, even if it's the wrong path. Why should he? You chose that path. Some of these paths might have been split between doing the right thing for others benefit, or the wrong thing for your benefit. You chose to take the wrong path when surely you know which is the right one. Why should he correct it when your decisions reflect who you are as a person? You'll get whatever you deserve, be it when you die, or in this life.
"God's not real, if he is real then why do bad things happen?" Because people went down the wrong path. From their own free will.
That's from my own opinion, beliefs and experiences. I understand if you choose not to believe any of that, from your own opinion or experiences. But that's what makes sense to me. Not what I choose to believe, or comfort myself into believing, but what appears in my mind as correct. So it would take a lot to convince me otherwise.