If Northern Ireland unites with Ireland, will the Loyalists start a conflict?

Like not a war between the UK and Ireland. But say if there is a referendum, and people in NI vote to join the ROI, will the loyalists start fighting the Irish etc?

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 1

SMEGGGY

21

There won't be reunification. Leave it as it is, part of the UK.

England
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland

🇬🇧

Reply 2

UCAS_Expert

9

Original post by Ferrograd

Like not a war between the UK and Ireland. But say if there is a referendum, and people in NI vote to join the ROI, will the loyalists start fighting the Irish etc?

I would expect some civil unrest in NI itself.

One issue for what remains of the UK (Great Britain) and Ireland to sort out is some sort of financial settlement for all the investments, buildings, infrastructure etc that the UK has paid for and/or owns.

And then there is private property. I own a flat in Belfast, but live in Liverpool. What will happen once I become a 'foreign' property owner?

Reply 3

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by SMEGGGY

There won't be reunification. Leave it as it is, part of the UK.

England
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland

🇬🇧

Think of it this way. Sinn Fein just got the largest share of votes in the Irish election. Unionist parties got the least votes in the General Election this year. I'd say Irish reunification is probably more likely than Scotland leaving the UK.

Reply 4

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by UCAS_Expert

I would expect some civil unrest in NI itself.

One issue for what remains of the UK (Great Britain) and Ireland to sort out is some sort of financial settlement for all the investments, buildings, infrastructure etc that the UK has paid for and/or owns.

And then there is private property. I own a flat in Belfast, but live in Liverpool. What will happen once I become a 'foreign' property owner?

I actually doubt it would make a difference. People in the UK have been able to travel, live, and work freely in the ROI since the introduction of the Irish Free State in 1921.

Reply 5

SMEGGGY

21

Original post by Ferrograd

Think of it this way. Sinn Fein just got the largest share of votes in the Irish election. Unionist parties got the least votes in the General Election this year. I'd say Irish reunification is probably more likely than Scotland leaving the UK.

Yes they gained in the elections, there was no mention of reunification in the campaign by SF.

Reply 6

UCAS_Expert

9

Original post by Ferrograd

I actually doubt it would make a difference. People in the UK have been able to travel, live, and work freely in the ROI since the introduction of the Irish Free State in 1921.

But there may be tax implications etc.

I do agree that recent elections and Brexit has made reunification more likely if, and a big if, the UK government allowed another referendum on the issue. Which is unlikely. Especially after their experience of the Brexit referendum which they thought was so clearly going to go remain and didn't.

Reply 7

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by UCAS_Expert

But there may be tax implications etc.

I do agree that recent elections and Brexit has made reunification more likely if, and a big if, the UK government allowed another referendum on the issue. Which is unlikely. Especially after their experience of the Brexit referendum which they thought was so clearly going to go remain and didn't.

Having said that, it would probably be easier to just to relinquish their claims on NI and hand it over. There could be all sorts of weird complications if we don't get a deal sorted with the EU, one of which for example would involve Northern Ireland using a different time zone to the rest of the UK for six months of the year, as well as possible re-introduction of border checks. I'd have no problem personally losing Northern Ireland, they are not a key part of hte UK like Scotland is where they are attatched to us, they have no real economic value and if anything are a burden. Plus you'd get rid of the IRA, although as I mentioned, you'd just get Loyalist paramilitary groups and guerillas

Reply 8

Rakas21

21

Original post by Ferrograd

Like not a war between the UK and Ireland. But say if there is a referendum, and people in NI vote to join the ROI, will the loyalists start fighting the Irish etc?

While i doubt it will happen anytime soon (Scottish Independence is a much greater risk) i would expect that most people would accept the result however yes, you'd probably expect some terrorist activity in protest. Contrary to what many believe, Ireland was far from unified in its decision to split all those years ago.

Original post by Ferrograd

Think of it this way. Sinn Fein just got the largest share of votes in the Irish election. Unionist parties got the least votes in the General Election this year. I'd say Irish reunification is probably more likely than Scotland leaving the UK.

Sinn Fein got 24% of the vote south of the border and lacks the numbers to form the government right now. At any rate the opinion south of the border is somewhat irrelevant. North of the border the DUP won the general election in NI and while unionist support is below 50%, it is the Alliance who have benefited and they are not nationalists (think lib dems who don't want to talk about nationalism in any form) so as things stand the numbers to force a referendum north of the border are not there and it would be unlikely to pass if there was one.

In Scotland the SNP not only have a large plurality of the vote but they have a majority with the Greens in the Scottish Parliament. A far greater threat (indeed i personally think Con-Lib need to do some deal in Scotland).

Original post by Ferrograd

I actually doubt it would make a difference. People in the UK have been able to travel, live, and work freely in the ROI since the introduction of the Irish Free State in 1921.

That's because in UK law Ireland is not treated as a foreign country, it has a special status. Unfortunately with their love of the EU and betrayal in the recent negotiations that may have to change (although many unionists like myself do dream of allowing them to rejoin the union).

Reply 9

UCAS_Expert

9

Original post by Rakas21

That's because in UK law Ireland is not treated as a foreign country, it has a special status. Unfortunately with their love of the EU and betrayal in the recent negotiations that may have to change (although many unionists like myself do dream of allowing them to rejoin the union).

Who did Eire betray?

Reply 10

conorinireland

2

A few years ago, there was a vote on Belfast city council about the flying of the union jack and the council agreed to only put it up on certain days (mature and correct decision). A few hundred of loyalists started protests and numerous days of riot happened.Ultimately, they only did themselves disservice. I believe that type of scale of violence will happen when Ireland reunifies because it is a question of when not if. Political unionism has lost its majority in the assembly in Stormont, they have lost their majority in relation to the seats it holds in Westminster (nationalism has the majority of seats.) Moreover, something that has not been mentioned is changing demographics. There will be a catholic majority therefore making the chances of a United Ireland more probable. Furthermore, I truly believe political unionism has failed to become an outward looking or progressive force as both UUP and DUP are conservative economically and socially and such push away from a majority of young people. As mentioned Alliance party are gaining from this and these young voters from traditionally unionist or protestant backgrounds may not be turning into nationalists but nevertheless we cannot forget they are turning their backs on unionism. There has also been a severe lack of long-term planning on behalf of unionism has they rejected things nationalists hold dear, for example the GAA and the irish language. If political unionism was smart it would of endorsed these things in order to strengthen the union. They did not. The DUP mocked the Irish language and showed themselves as bigots whereas the UUP have rejected protections for the indigenous language of this island. These actions just further the nationalist cause. Finally, the DUP (from the start) and the UUP (after the brexit ref) championed the leave campaign in the brexit ref. They still argued for this even though 56% of the people here voted to remain. Further distancing themselves from remain unionists. There will be a united Ireland. Unionism is failing. It is the most natural direction of travel for everyone on our island because partition has failed us all.

Reply 11

username402722

19

I do not expect the island of Ireland to be one country in my lifetime, much as I support it as I think all people in the island would be economically better off and the arguments for the six counties have largely gone (influence of the Catholic Church is much less if any in the Republic, the economy of the six counties is not so much made up of heavy industry which was never in the Republic).

I do think were it to happen that some Unionists would protest violently.

Reply 12

conorinireland

2

Original post by barnetlad

I do not expect the island of Ireland to be one country in my lifetime, much as I support it as I think all people in the island would be economically better off and the arguments for the six counties have largely gone (influence of the Catholic Church is much less if any in the Republic, the economy of the six counties is not so much made up of heavy industry which was never in the Republic).

I do think were it to happen that some Unionists would protest violently.

Numerous polls have shown a majority support for a UI and will only go up due to demography changes. And the issue of a UI has never been more prominant in daily life in the north and south

Reply 13

Napp

22

A war? Doubt it. Sectarian violence and a return to terrorism? Likely.

Reply 14

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by Napp

A war? Doubt it. Sectarian violence and a return to terrorism? Likely.

That's what I basically meant.

Reply 15

BlueIndigoViolet

19

Some communities will never accept Irish rule, meaning Ireland could be partitioned again to accomodate their wishes imo

Reply 16

DJKL

17

Original post by UCAS_Expert

But there may be tax implications etc.

I do agree that recent elections and Brexit has made reunification more likely if, and a big if, the UK government allowed another referendum on the issue. Which is unlikely. Especially after their experience of the Brexit referendum which they thought was so clearly going to go remain and didn't.

One factor that takes the decision making outwith the hands of the UK Government is "The Good Friday Agreement" which includes within its terms an automatic obligation, under certain circumstances, to hold such a poll.

This article states

"As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll."

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

This is part of an international treaty and it is not within the power of the UK government to ignore its legal commitments under same.

If Northern Ireland unites with Ireland, will the Loyalists start a conflict?

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